View from Tehran: Nuclear talks and policy shifts as Iran copes with changing region

Building ties with neighbours became priority when negotiators started pursuing lifting of sanctions

On Sunday, ministers from Iran, Qatar and Oman met in buildings on the tree-lined streets of Tehran to work out details of next steps in the continuing nuclear talks with the US.

The senior officials stepped out of the meeting to news that Steve Witkoff, Washington’s chief negotiator in the talks, had given an interview in which he ruled out allowing Iran any uranium enrichment capacity in an agreement. That is a non-starter for Tehran.

It was “a strange interview”, a senior Iranian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Enrichment will continue with or without a deal. He [Witkoff] has made negotiations more difficult.”

Alongside a handful of foreign journalists, The National gained a rare press visa for Iran to attend a conference organised by the Institute for Political and International Studies, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Banners for the Tehran Dialogue Forum swayed in the wind beside national flags along the capital’s motorways.

A view of Iran's large, bustling capital during the Tehran Dialogue Forum. Lizzie Porter / The National

As it attempts to negotiate a new deal with the US, Iran is at the centre of enormous shifts taking place in the Middle East. Armed groups it supports in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria – the so-called axis of resistance – have been weakened, and the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Damascus means it has lost a key ally. At the same time, Israel – Tehran’s arch enemy – has become increasingly isolated because of its continuing war in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis in the strip.

Aware of US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable character and keen to avoid more conflict, countries in the region, including Iran, appear keener than they have been in a long time to get on with each other.

“Of course, the region has reached this understanding that everything should be from within,” a deputy foreign minister of Iran, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told The National in an interview. “Nothing from outside the region can be helpful.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, centre, holds talks with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, right, and Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, in Tehran on May 18. Iranian Foreign Ministry / EPA

Mingling with foreign delegations and journalists, Iranian diplomats wanted to send the message that they are ready to talk, while retaining negotiating positions they see as points of national pride.

The conference guest list reflected Iran’s foreign policy priorities. It included the foreign ministers of Iraq, Qatar and Tajikistan, as well as Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, who is mediating the US-Iran talks.

A large delegation from Afghanistan sauntered through the lobby of a five-star hotel. Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi insisted the government in Kabul was ready to be a “point of convergence” for regional energy and reducing drug production.

Desire for a deal

On the nuclear issue, though, negotiations are stumbling over enrichment, although both sides have agreed to a fifth round of talks due to take place in Rome on Friday. Tehran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, Iranian officials insist. It wants to retain enrichment capacity, possibly with limitations, for what it says are agricultural and scientific purposes. The US fears any enrichment could lead to Iran developing nuclear weapons.

“If your real concern is the militarisation of our programme, the solution is very easy,” a second senior Iranian official said, on condition of anonymity. “But if you have a hidden agenda and you want to deprive Iran of scientific achievements, you will definitely not succeed in your endeavour.”

Tehran is an alluring, exhausting city. The elegant greenery that lines nearly every street provides some respite from the heavy traffic and early summer heat.

Despite significant global isolation, life goes on. Billboards carry advertisements for heavy machinery, banks and red pesto alongside images commemorating late president Ebrahim Raisi or the axis of resistance. Mr Raisi’s death a year ago in a helicopter crash prompted a snap election that brought to power Masoud Pezeshkian, who is widely seen as a reformist.

At the same time, Iran’s leaders are aware that the country needs sanctions relief to help solve some damaging problems, including soaring inflation. Greater ability to use its wealth of oil and gas resources would help to relieve water and power shortages.

While the US has presented the nuclear talks as an opportunity for Tehran, Iranian analysts point out in private that the current political environment in the country – with a reformist President willing to negotiate – is an opening for the West, too.

If your real concern is the militarisation of our programme, the solution is very easy. But if you have a hidden agenda and you want to deprive Iran of scientific achievements, you will definitely not succeed in your endeavour

Senior Iranian official

Apparently contradictory US positions on the talks could be a negotiating strategy to seal a deal while the notoriously mercurial US President is focused on the issue, analysts say.

“Perhaps also this staunch position from Witkoff – saying zero enrichment is what we want – is a way to raise the stakes for there to be a compromise solution between the two,” Maria Luisa Fantappie, a programme head at the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs, told The National after attending the Tehran conference.

Friendly neighbours

With its relations with the US and Europe uncertain, Tehran is watching developments across the region closely. From here, the view is very different to those in many other countries. Some points are not new: the belief that Israel is the main threat; its wariness of western intentions.

Other views are becoming increasingly prominent. The Foreign Ministry – one of many institutions in Iran’s complex network of state organs – believes the country needs more engagement with its neighbours and “balanced relations” with global powers, both East and West.

“Rather than persisting with threat-based approaches, we must adopt opportunity-based ones and promote economic interdependence as a sustainable foundation for regional peace and stability,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a speech at the Tehran Dialogue Forum.

That means trade, joint investments, technology transfers and major infrastructure projects, he said, without naming specifics.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets Qatar's Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, in Tehran on May 18. Iranian Presidential Office / EPA

Rapid societal and economic reforms undertaken by Arab states in the Gulf region have pushed Iran towards working alongside, rather than against, its neighbours, analysts say.

“There is a ‘Gulf effect’ on them,” Ms Fantappie said. “That creates a situation around the neighbourhood that forces them, in some way, to rethink their tools of foreign policy, and also to rethink the way in which they balance diplomacy as opposed to aggressive actions.”

Iranian officials appear wary of Mr Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and of Washington encouraging increasing engagement with Israel. In Riyadh, Mr Trump compared progress in the countries he visited to what he described as the “corruption” provoking “instability” in the region from Iran.

In Tehran, Mr Pezeshkian accused the US of trying to pit countries in the region against each other by selling weapons to some while villainising Tehran.

Mr Trump’s Gulf tour “was obviously planned for political goals, a political agenda was the main goal of this trip. It was planned in that way, everything was telling, the speeches there, commenting, the format,” Mr Khatibzadeh, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, told The National.

American and European interventions have not been “for the good or best of the region”, but nations should be allowed to work with them if they want to, he said.

Iran's deputy foreign minister says Middle East is 'so capable' of building its own future

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“At the same time, the region is definitely entitled to interact with others,” Mr Khatibzadeh added. “But they are smart enough to understand that those who are perpetrating these sorts of things are not for the best of the region.”

Israel-Palestine

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf accused Israel of trying to engage “some Middle Eastern countries” and “position itself as part of a solution” by offering economic opportunities to neighbours. He characterised the conflict between Iran and the “Zionist regime” – how many in Iran refer to Israel – as a key axis in geopolitical rifts.

Iran’s regional military sway has diminished over the past 18 months as a result of attacks by Israel and the fall of Mr Al Assad. Lebanese group Hezbollah has lost its military and political leaders, including long-time secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Iran-backed troops and Iranian military and political advisers have left Syria, and Tehran is in no hurry to rebuild ties with Damascus, a senior Iranian Foreign Ministry envoy said at the Tehran forum.

Iran believes instability in the region can be prevented through the creation of a Palestinian state, he added.

But unlike many Arab countries, Iran rejects the idea of creating a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders, alongside an Israeli state, and wants a referendum with the “native residents of Palestine – Muslims, Christians and Jews” to “determine the future political system of their homeland”, Mr Araghchi said, without defining who would qualify.

Mr Qalibaf, a conservative politician who was formerly mayor of Tehran, suggested Israel’s continued presence would provoke more conflict. Israel is “an occupation-based regime that leads the region to resistance”, he said.