“Bold, fast, big.”
Those were the superlatives Jake Sullivan, the former national security adviser, used to describe US President Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Gulf. There was, I felt, a sense of pragmatic realism in his assessment − an effort to rise above the usual political leanings.
Mr Sullivan is a veteran negotiator with deep knowledge of the region and its power players, to whom he remains closely connected. Under former president Joe Biden, he was one of the youngest national security advisers.
Before that, he was a key architect of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and world powers. Under this, Tehran agreed to limits on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. In 2018, during his first term in office, Mr Trump withdrew the US from the agreement.
Mr Sullivan is an adviser in a hurry, with his own sense of pace and relevance. We sat down at the London AIM Summit. It was one of those rare, glorious spring days in May. The venue − the Four Seasons on the edge of the City at Tower Hill − set the stage.
I reminded Mr Sullivan of his infamous remark from September 2023, when he claimed the Middle East was “quieter than it had been in two decades”. Since then, the region has hit several new lows.
There have been multiple tectonic shifts. When Mr Trump returned to power in January, the assumed vehicle for success − deals via Israel − shifted dramatically. He physically bypassed Israel on this trip, sending a clear message, perhaps even one meant to destabilise Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“It’s not that the balance of power has changed,” Mr Sullivan said, “just the weight and emphasis on who can deliver.”
Mr Sullivan suggests Mr Netanyahu has essentially been sidelined by Mr Trump. He’s not going to stop the Israeli leader from what he’s doing in Gaza – but he’s also not going to listen to him any more.
Mr Trump is moving forward in the Middle East with a real sense of urgency. There’s been a clear elevation of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as relations with the UAE's President Sheikh Mohamed and Sheikh Tamim, Emir of Qatar.
The elevation of Saudi Arabia, Mr Sullivan noted, is undeniable − he even gave MBS “10 out of 10” for putting on the kind of show Mr Trump appreciates.
This directness Mr Sullivan refers to is about negotiating directly – with Tehran, with Hamas, as seen in the recent release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander.
On Iran, Mr Sullivan suggested Tehran is signalling a willingness to strike a deal, likely something resembling the JCPOA. And that, it would appear, is a risk Mr Trump is prepared to take, even if it triggers the first serious rupture within the GOP. That pushback has already begun.
When I asked Mr Sullivan what advice he would offer the Trump administration on dealing with Iran, he was gracious, saying people don’t need lessons from him but they should recognise that “the clock is on our side. The American side."
“We don’t need to rush,” he added, “but yes, seize the opportunity.”
