When US President Donald Trump sat in the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month, there was a third character in the room.
“I have great relations with a man called [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan. I happen to like him and he likes me,” Mr Trump said, as Mr Netanyahu sat listening, an awkward grimace on his face.
Mr Erdogan, 71, the president of Turkey, has been one of the fiercest critics of Israel throughout the war in Gaza, and has compared Mr Netanyahu to Nazi Germany leader Adolf Hitler, calling him a psychopath and a “bloodsucking vampire”. Israeli officials have called Mr Erdogan a “dictator” willing to sacrifice the well-being of Turkish citizens for the sake of Palestinian militant group Hamas.
As Mr Trump showered praise on the Turkish president, Mr Netanyahu glanced at onlookers, more awkwardly.
The White House encounter revealed not just the limits of the Netanyahu-Trump relationship. It also demonstrated the warm relations between the American President and Mr Erdogan.
One man is the leader of world’s largest economy, who human rights observers say is leading the US down an increasingly autocratic path. The other heads a middle power, in which his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) frequently criticises the West, but also finds commonalities with President Trump.
Analysts and politicians who spoke to The National believe a rapport with the White House could be Mr Erdogan's route back into favour in the West – while Mr Trump sees a leader who shares his interest in brokering peace by growing his own sphere of influence.
Trip rumours
Before the US leader’s tour of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar next week, rumours have abounded that he could make a stop in Turkey too, as he seeks Mr Erdogan’s support in slow-moving efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and solidifies ties with Ankara.
According to an official close to the AK Party who spoke to The National, far more likely is Mr Erdogan first making a trip to visit his counterpart in Washington, DC.
There is, “no specific date but the way it was told I felt like it would be in early summer,” the source said.
To his supporters, Mr Erdogan’s close relationship with Mr Trump is a sign of his ability to forge relationships with strategic allies such as the US, even when they do not see eye to eye on all issues. Turkey has the second-largest army in the Nato alliance, and shares borders with countries of key concern to the USA, such as Iran.
Brookings Institution visiting fellow
“We believe that, under a renewed Trump administration, there is a strong potential to build on the existing relationship, given the familiarity and previous working rapport between the two leaders,” Harun Armagan, an AK Party vice chair of foreign affairs, told The National.
The men share many traits. Both their teams are conservative proponents of pro-natalism – US Vice President JD Vance and President Erdogan’s allies are pushing their respective populations to have more children. Both have criticised human rights defenders. Both present themselves as geopolitical mediators, keen to end wars.
Turkish model
Mr Trump admires his Turkish counterpart’s ability to build spheres of influence outside of international frameworks, observers say.
“Trump clearly respects Erdogan as a strongman and as a sovereign leader who can establish the kind of strategic autonomy outside of multilateral alliances, in a way that he very much wants to see the United States doing,” Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, told The National.
To critics, while both Turkey and the US are democracies on paper, their two leaders share an autocratic leadership style that values conservatism and populism.
“They're typically coming from the same political tradition, which includes populism, the right wing, strong leaders – both have an outspoken style,” Ilhan Uzgel, foreign policy coordinator for Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), told The National.
US credibility
Others say the US engagement with Turkey is undermining America's long-term credibility and strategic interests in the region.
Namik Tan, a former Turkish ambassador to the US and current CHP MP for Istanbul, said it was “regrettable” that successive US administrations for prioritising “short-term transactional gains over democratic principles” in dealing with Turkey’s president.
“A values-based foreign policy is not just a moral imperative − it is a strategic necessity,” he told The National.
Others argue that Mr Erdogan’s consistent approach to dealing with other world leaders over the years has gained him respect.
“Leaders who engage with him more closely tend to develop a deeper appreciation for his principled leadership and Turkey’s commitment to promoting dialogue and constructive solutions over conflict,” Mr Armagan of AK Party said.
Consistency is not something that always finds a match in Washington, where Mr Trump’s leadership style has left more room for inconsistent policy follow-through.
“The problem is that the Trump administration has a very chaotic way of governance,” Ms Aydintasbas added. “That's not a problem you have on the Turkish side, because the policies and the personnel are more clearly identified. But here on the US side, you know, what is the policy on Syria? Who is calling the shots? What is the US going to do on Ukraine? The decision making is more erratic on all of those issues, and policies do change.”
Political differences, mutual gains
While significant economic partners – their trade volume topped $32 billion last year, and Washington and Ankara have pledged to increase that to $100 billion – the two nations have had their political differences.
Relations have taken a hit over consecutive US administrations’ support for Kurdish militias in north-eastern Syria, whom Ankara regards as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The militant group has waged a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish state. In 2019, the US removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet programme over its multibillion-dollar purchase of a Russian missile system, for which Washington later also imposed sanctions.
AK Party
The AK Party hopes that President Trump’s second term in office will be a chance to resolve some of the former differences, while the US leader’s transactional style means he is eager to forge closer economic relations with allies.
Hinting at a keenness to put past differences behind them, Mr Erdogan recently said that “my friend Trump and I” would offer “a very different momentum” to US-Turkey relations in the future.
A return to the F-35 programme is not clear cut, but Mr Armagan believes Turkey’s growing domestic defence industry overall would be a boon for the USA.
“Turkey remains open and willing to contribute meaningfully to joint initiatives, including the F-35 programme, where we can offer significant value through our advanced capabilities in the defence industry,” he said.
Personal chemistry between the two leaders is important, and the recent appointment of a new US ambassador to Turkey who is close to President Trump, Thomas Barrack, will help sustain the relationship. But large decisions, such as removal of sanctions on Ankara or Turkey’s re-entry into the F-35 programme, require wider buy-in on the US side.
Back in favour?
Mr Erdogan seeks legitimacy from the US government, having been unofficially held at arm’s length by both the Biden administration and European countries for some years, some say.
“He is hoping that this sort of symbolic embrace from the Trump administration would mean other western countries come over to Turkey and for trade and deals,” Ms Aydintasbas added.
Ankara also wants the US to take a fresh look at Syria, whose future could be a key topic of conversation when Presidents Erdogan and Trump meet. “Turkey would like to see sanctions lifted and [Syria’s transitional president] Al Shara rehabilitated so it can be the big, major player in Syria's reconstruction,” Ms Aydintasbas said.
As well as boosting trade ties, President Trump has publicly said that he seeks President Erdogan’s help ending the war in Ukraine. “I look forward to working with President Erdogan on getting the ridiculous but deadly, War between Russia and Ukraine ended – NOW!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, his social media platform, this week.
Turkey is one of the few nations that has maintained good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, and as President Trump’s efforts to end the three-year conflict hit dead ends, he appears to be pursuing alliances with countries that talk to both sides, such as Turkey. But there are limits to outsiders’ ability to influence the course of the war, observers say.
“First of all, both sides should have the will to end the conflict,” said Ilhan Uzgel of the CHP. “Without that …. it’s not possible for Turkey or for any other country to stop it.”
