Syrian government's failure to protect minorities leaves door open for Israeli destabilisation

Authorities using strategy to 'consolidate' areas not in their control, analysts say

A Syrian Druze family fleeing violence in Damascus are stopped by Israeli soldiers near Majdal Shams, in the occupied Golan Heights. AFP

Israel is exploiting the Syrian government’s failure to secure minority rights in Syria by presenting itself as a protector of the Druze community, analysts and regional military experts told The National.

It comes after a wave of sectarian violence by fighters loyal to the new authorities left more than 100 people dead in Druze-majority areas.

“We saw clear sectarian chants like ‘We’re going to genocide the Druze’ in Hama and Homs, for example. The government has not through statement or practice been trying to stop this kind of harassment or incitement or attacks,” Joseph Daher, a Syrian academic and analyst, told The National.

The violence was sparked by a voice recording that circulated on social media and was purportedly of a Druze cleric insulting the Prophet Mohammed. It was debunked by Syrian authorities and Druze religious leaders.

Leaders of the minority sect, an offshoot of Islam, said the recording was fabricated. Blasphemy against the Prophet Mohammed is antithetical to the Druze faith, they said.

However, that did little to calm the situation. Militants, some of whom are affiliated with the current Syrian government, converged on Druze-majority towns of Jaramana and Sahnaya, as well as Suweida province, while Druze gunmen rallied to deter attacks on their towns.

Israel’s rapid entry into the conflict, through a series of air strikes – including near the Presidential Palace in Damascus – marked its most significant escalation on Syria since December. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the attacks were aimed at “protecting the Druze community” and preventing Syrian troops being posted south of the capital.

Israel’s timing is no accident, analysts say. With Syria’s central authority weakened by infighting and sectarian violence, Israel sees a rare chance to reshape Syria’s borders and political order in its favour, after the downfall of former president Bashar Al Assad.

Druze clerics attend the funeral of members of the Syrian minority killed in sectarian violence, in in southern Suweida province. AFP

Why is Israel interfering in Syria?

“Israel wants to see a weak central government or a Syria fragmented along sectarian lines,” said Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. “A Druze state, a Kurdish state and an Alawite state reinforce the legitimacy of a Jewish state.”

Mr Kahwaji said Israel’s primary objective was to carve out a Druze-controlled buffer zone between the country and Damascus. This strategy, he added, is rooted in a broader geopolitical calculation – Israel wants to pre-empt the rise of a strong, Turkish-backed Syrian government that could eventually support hostile armed groups.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for Islamist groups has deepened Israeli anxieties, particularly over the possibility that post-conflict Syria could become a base for anti-Israel operations.

Israel is also seeking the full annexation of the occupied Golan Heights. It already controls two thirds of the territory – unilaterally annexed in 1981 in a move rejected by the international community – and occupied the remaining part after the collapse of Mr Al Assad’s regime in December 2024.

“Israel will try to keep as much of the land it has grabbed and will try to get concessions from the Syrians to accept Israeli sovereignty over the whole of Golan Heights,” Mr Kahwaji said.

'Sectarian policies'

Syrian authorities have condemned Israel's attacks as a “flagrant violation of international law” and a “direct threat to regional stability", while clarifying that the country does not seek conflict with Israel. They also accused “outlaw groups” of instigating the sectarian attacks and sending fighters into Druze-majority towns.

But the Syrian government – led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a group once affiliated with Al Qaeda – has failed to prevent sectarian attacks since its inception, following the downfall of Mr Al Assad.

Many activists and residents accused the government of standing by while radical groups, using the fabricated voice recording as a pretext, assaulted Druze towns last week.

The problem is that the government's behaviour will be fuel to people who say we need this kind of coalition [with Israel]

Joseph Daher,
Syrian academic and analyst

Mr Daher described the government’s behaviour as part of a broader strategy to centralise power. “It’s a strategy to retake or consolidate areas that are not in control of the government. The government blames extremists for the violence, and then it says we’ll take control to pacify things," he said.

“The vast majority of Syrian Druze refuse Israeli instrumentalisation of sectarian issues. The problem is that the government's behaviour will be fuel to people who say we need this kind of coalition [with Israel].”

Syrian authorities used a similar tactic in March, when pro-government forces and allies killed hundreds of civilians from the Alawite minority under the pretext of quelling an insurgency led by militants loyal to Mr Al Assad, a member of the sect. To date, despite government overtures to investigate, there has seen no accountability.

“The government cannot say it’s trying to bring security when there has been no accountability from previous massacres,” Mr Daher said. “Israel has been able to exploit the situation exactly because the government has been pursuing – directly and indirectly – sectarian policies.”