Israel was just 350 metres from a “major casualty event” following the failure of its air defence systems during Sunday’s Houthi ballistic missile strike, experts have told The National.
What is worse is that given the Iranian-backed group’s success at overcoming Israel’s vaunted air defence system with a hypersonic missile, more will follow. That is almost inevitable, with the Houthis vowing to continue attacks as long as Israel continues its campaign of occupation in Gaza.
The rebel group will also be only too aware of the economic impact it could have, with major airlines cancelling flights into Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport until at least Tuesday.
Missile failure
At 9.22am on Sunday air raid sirens rang out across the city, after Israeli radar, alongside US surveillance systems, detected a ballistic missile launch from Yemen. Instantly the Israeli-made Arrow and the US-deployed Thaad (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence), arguably the world’s most sophisticated missile interceptors, swung into action to meet the threat, knowing the strike would arrive within 15 minutes.
Arrow’s ground-based Green Pine radar used its active electronically steered array (Aesa) radar, the gold standard for modern air defence, which allows it to identify different types of missiles on the edge of space. Ground-based computers calculated the point of launch and impact, evaluating whether it was worth intercepting the missile. On Sunday the military instantly knew this was an interception mission, with the system showing the threat homing in on Ben Gurion.
According to reports, a $3.5 million Arrow 3 missile was fired but malfunctioned. Similarly, a Thaas missile interceptor with a 200km range, which relies on the kinetic energy impact rather than a warhead to destroy the incoming threat, appeared to fire but missed the target.
“Initial findings reveal no malfunction in the detection procedure, interception systems, or Homefront Command alert mechanisms,” an Israeli military statement said. But it added “the likely cause was a technical issue with the interceptor launched towards the missile”, and that the system was 95 per cent effective. Seven people were injured by the missile, which landed on open ground close to a motorway, 350 metres from Ben Gurion’s Terminal 3.
More to come
Those who run Israel's air defences are rapidly trying to evaluate their system vulnerabilities as they will be acutely aware that the Houthis will want to capitalise on the morale boost of managing to land a rocket on a major international airport from 2,000km away.
Foremost will be in-depth research into the weapon used, which Israeli sources suggested was a Palestine-2 missile. A barrage of the projectiles, which closely resemble Iran’s Fattah-2 hypersonic missile, was fired in December last year, with one penetrating air defences and hitting a playground in southern Tel Aviv, wounding 16 people.
“The attack on Ben Gurion proves our ability to strike fortified sites inside Israel,” said senior Houthi figure Mohammed Al Bukhaiti. “We have demonstrated our capability to strike at the military prestige of the US, UK and Israel.”
‘Got lucky'
“Israel got very lucky,” said open-source intelligence analyst Tal Hagin. “If the hit was just a few hundred metres in a different direction, it would have caused a mass casualty event, especially in Terminal 3 or on commercial airliners coming into land.” Given their explosive potential, the threat from a hypersonic ballistic missile is far greater than the threat from those fired by Hamas.
“The Houthis are clearly showcasing that they can really harm the economy in Israel by putting fear into the public,” he added. “The government will also be seriously concerned that a ballistic missile was able to get through the defences.”
Another security source also raised questions on how much practical training the air defence teams, including the US soldiers, had had against live ballistic missile attacks.
“There is a limit to how many actual intercepting threats crews have had as there's a limit to the number of ballistic missiles being fired,” he said. "This isn't really something that a lot of militaries have trained on in real-life scenarios, but ultimately you're not going to be able to stop everything.”
Retaliation options
Other than a review of their air defence system, which is the world’s most advanced, the Israelis will be examining their offensive options. Sunday’s attack demonstrates that despite weeks of US-led air strikes, the Houthis remain capable of launching high-grade missiles.
Unlike in its neighbouring countries, Israel probably has scant ground-based intelligence assets in Yemen and realistically does not have the option of a ground invasion. Furthermore, the option of a targeted commando raid against a missile factory or senior Houthi commanders or technicians comes with exceptionally high risk.
The only choices thus left to Israel are to tighten its defences, improve its intelligence or end the Gaza occupation. During the ceasefire in January, the Houthi attacks immediately stopped.
