This week's phone call between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and Syria’s President Ahmad Al Shara represented a new push in relations between the neighbouring countries, at a time of significant geopolitical shifts in the region. However, the real test will be whether it leads to tangible outcomes.
Iraq’s Shiite-led government cautiously welcomed the removal of Bashar Al Assad's regime in December by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a mostly Sunni group formerly affiliated with Al Qaeda. Baghdad has called for an inclusive political process in Syria, expressed concern over the danger posed by a resurgent ISIS and demanded protection for religious and ethnic minorities and Shiite shrines.
In what was seen as a desire by Baghdad to keep relations between the two nations strictly to security matters, in late December it sent a senior delegation led by Hamid Al Shatri, the head of the Intelligence Service, to Damascus to meet Mr Al Shara to discuss issues including the border between the two nations. Last month, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shaibani made his first visit to the Iraqi capital to discuss ways to increase co-operating and to strengthen ties.
The phone conversation on Tuesday – which was framed around Eid Al Fitr greetings – was the first between the two leaders and touched on political, security and economic co-operation.
“It is a first step towards building trust and breaking down the barrier of mutual fear, anxiety, suspicions and caution,” Ihsan Al Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre in Baghdad, told The National.
Mr Al Sudani’s government has “realised that there is a shift in the internal political trajectory in Syria” since a new transitional government was formed and a constitutional declaration endorsed, to be enforced throughout a five-year transitional period, Mr Al Shammari said.
During the phone call, Mr Al Sudani welcomed the creation of the new government, emphasising Iraq's “unwavering support for the choices of the brotherly Syrian people,” according to a statement from his office. He stressed the “importance of the political process including all Syria’s components and ensuring that it contributes to peaceful coexistence and security for a secure and stable future for Syria and the entire region".
Iraq has long sought stability along its western border, where ISIS remnants and drug-trafficking networks remain major security concerns. The Iraqi Prime Minister emphasised the “importance of mutual co-operation in confronting the threat of ISIS, in addition to co-operation in economic fields, given common factors and opportunities”.
In its own statement, Damascus said both leaders had “stressed the importance of turning a new page in bilateral relations, based on joint co-operation, to confront regional challenges and prevent tension in the region”. It said the call had addressed border security and co-operation in combating drug trafficking.
The latest development came as Iran's regional role, including in Syria, and its support for militias has been heavily weakened by Israel's wars in the region, and tension between Tehran and Washington is running high as President Donald Trump is pressing the regime for talks over its nuclear programme, threatening military action. It also came amid a US military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have resumed attacks in the Red Sea in support of their ally Hamas in Gaza, and who, in recent months, have emerged as Iran’s most effective proxy force.
Given the geopolitical shifts in the region, Iraq needs to "contain Syria, instead of escalation, due to its political and geographical location and its security impact, in addition to its relations to important countries in the region such as Turkey, its main sponsor", Hadi Jalo Marie, chairman of the Political Decision think tank in Baghdad, told The National.
"Iraq wants to be a positive party in the peace equation in the region after strengthening ties with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt as well as good relations with Iran and Turkey," he added.
However, whether there will be any significant difference in the relationship between Baghdad and Damascus in the near future remains to be seen, given that Mr Al Sudani “remains tied to his political group within the [Iran-backed] Co-ordination Framework, which doesn’t seem to trust the new reality in Syria”, Mr Al Shammari said.
Iraq is due to hold national parliamentary elections by the end of this year and therefor the relationship between the two countries is likely to “be linked to the upcoming political equation in Iraq more than it is linked to the current [Iraqi] government”, he said.
