Iran's new Shahed-149 'Gaza' drone. Photo: X
Iran's new Shahed-149 'Gaza' drone. Photo: X
Iran's new Shahed-149 'Gaza' drone. Photo: X
Iran's new Shahed-149 'Gaza' drone. Photo: X

How Iran’s American-style drones compare to US models


Robert Tollast
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Last month Iran showed off pictures of the Shahed 149 drone on exercises. Referred to as the “Gaza” drone, the system is almost identical to the US Reaper drone, and has impressive capabilities such as a camera with 100 times magnification and the ability to fly 1,000km or more on 35-hour missions.

It joins a long list of Iranian drones that appear to be copied from US models, from the Yasir, a copy of the US ScanEagle, to the Saeqeh, a near copy of the US RQ-170.

How then, might the systems compare? Much about drones like the Reaper and the Shahed 149 remains classified, but aerospace experts interviewed by The National were able to provide a glimpse of the capabilities of the Iranian systems.

The US Reaper

Evolving from the Predator drone – originally an unarmed reconnaissance drone first deployed during Nato’s 1995 intervention in Bosnia – the Reaper became synonymous with the US’s so-called Global War on Terror.

Conducting thousands of air strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen, among other fronts - often from controllers in the US using satellite links to control the drone - it was sought-after for its persistence surveilling small groups of militants, able to fly for 30 hours or more.

Reapers would eventually be kitted out with a Wide Area Motion Imaging (Wami) sensor, a system of cameras and image processors with a data link that could film city-size areas in "super resolution."

“Super resolution – I'm simplifying a lot here – is taking a lot of imagery from multiple cameras, and then you basically bring the imagery all together,” says Robi Sen, an independent consultant on drone technology. During Reaper deployments in Afghanistan, that could result in two-gigapixel imagery, 20 times the resolution of an iPhone 15 photograph, and based on similar civilian technology, CMOS image sensors.

In 2009, the US said its drones had captured 24 years’ worth of video feed if played continuously. Today, Wami sensors can often film areas over 100km2 at once in the right conditions and the latest available for Reapers are 8.1 gigapixels.

Drone imagery of people playing baseball in Montgomery County, Maryland
Drone imagery of people playing baseball in Montgomery County, Maryland

They can simultaneously collect infrared imagery – light invisible to the human eye, usually for night vision, but in daytime simultaneous IR collection helps detect objects in shadows. To detect infrared light, the sensor needs a cryocooler, which cools down the detector to around -150°C.

“When you stitch all that imagery together, you can get one really good image, maybe 10 times better than any of the cameras can do by themselves. So this is pretty interesting for things like intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or protecting an area, anything where you may need a lot more resolution," Mr Sen says.

"You could be filming a boat. Let's say there's a figure on the boat, and with your normal resolution you can just see the figure. And when you take the super resolution, you can then zoom in on the individual and see things like facial features.”

Reapers can also be equipped with the Lynx multi mode radar. This has two powerful capabilities, Synthetic Aperture Radar (Sar) which creates images from radar waves, meaning it can peer through clouds (the example in the X post below shows Sar from space).

Secondly, Ground-Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) which can pick out people moving at barely walking speed amid the wide image captures. The Lynx also features automatic man-made object recognition. Combined, these capabilities (which are added according to the mission) give the Reaper the ability to collect large streams of data, in some cases for over 40 hours, in the case of the SkyGuardian Reaper.

The “endurance” of 40 hours is helped by a Honeywell T76 engine, a military version of a propeller plane turboprop engine which propels the drone to speeds of over 480km/h.

Endurance is enhanced by lightweight, strong materials such as carbon fibre and titanium in the airframe, which are expensive. The Reaper therefore doesn't come cheap, at roughly $30 million per aircraft.

How Iran’s Shahed 149 compares

Experts The National spoke to said Iran’s drone is not as capable as the Reaper for several critical reasons, particularly sanctions, which limit Iran’s access to “leading edge” microchips. Sanctions also stop critical components, from camera equipment to cryocoolers for infrared detection and metals such as titanium.

But Iran has a long history of reverse engineering aircraft parts and smuggling, to the point where most components in some of its drones are of US origin. Despite lacking anything close to the US defence budget (approximately $850bn vs $16bn for 2024) Iran’s drones could therefore be “good enough” imitations.

That could be dangerous if they can be made in large enough numbers, but Iran struggles with mass production of drones like the Shahed 149, and for some drones has even resorted to stealing foreign engines. The Shahed 149 contrasts with the cheaper Shahed 136s sent to Russia for the Ukraine war and sent to the Houthis, so-called kamikaze drones.

A Shahed-136 in the sky above Kyiv. Reuters
A Shahed-136 in the sky above Kyiv. Reuters

“We have seen cryocooling equipment used for optics in the Mohaher-6,” says Taimur Khan, a researcher with Conflict Armament Research, which forensically studies Iranian drones used in Yemen by the Houthis and the Russians in Ukraine. “What we have seen are a mix of DSLR cameras, video cameras made for small commercial UAVs and other readily available commercial optics,” he says.

For sophisticated systems like inertial navigation – devices which navigate by calculating changes in speed and altitude, rather than relying on GPS – “we don’t think they make them from scratch, they still require a lot of smuggled non-domestic technology from the US, Japan and China,” Mr Khan says.

An Iranian Shahed drone. Reuters
An Iranian Shahed drone. Reuters

“Inertial navigation devices are not the only critical component but a very important one. Iran does still try to domesticate some component production,” Mr Khan adds.

“They have produced their own copies of electromechanical systems such as servo motors to try to be a bit more independent from external supply chains but they will always be dependent on those supply chains when it comes to more sophisticated technology and semiconductors. Even though those components are made by Western manufacturers, they are still in a position to acquire them relatively easily from Chinese distributors.”

For Iran, rapid advances in microchip technology could enable the Shahed 149’s S-813 Sar radar. Iran's advertised capability for the system is much lower-fidelity than the Lynx radar's claimed ability. Mr Sen says that advances in civilian cameras and image processing also mean basic Wami sensors could be within reach.

Military aircraft on the deck of the first Iranian drone carrier, the Martyr Bahman Bagheri, during its unveiling in February 2025. AFP
Military aircraft on the deck of the first Iranian drone carrier, the Martyr Bahman Bagheri, during its unveiling in February 2025. AFP

“Synthetic Aperture Radar is relatively old technology. I'm not surprised the Iranians can do it because a good radar engineer can build one of these things. For drones, it's perfect, because you're flying along and the act of flying creates this artificially large antenna. You need a good processor to do it. But that's not impossible with the chips you can buy now,” says Thomas Withington, an expert on electronic warfare and radar, and an associate fellow at London's Rusi think tank.

Sanctions busting

Daniel Salisbury has studied Iran’s efforts to circumvent sanctions. He says that it is extremely difficult for the West to curtail defence supplies to Iran when it comes to drones.

“The sheer amount of trade moving around the globe makes uncovering, tracking and interdicting even large shipments difficult. There are a number of ways that large shipments are undertaken to avoid scrutiny. If using containerised or commercial shipping, goods are frequently mislabelled on the manifest (something benign like 'machinery') and associated paperwork,” he says.

“Shipments might also be broken up into smaller parts to avoid scrutiny. The states involved in these networks also often use state-controlled assets to move goods rather than commercial logistics. This allows them to remain more in control of the shipments, and reduces the chance of interdiction.

“The dual-use nature of many of these goods make countering the trade even more challenging, making it difficult to uncover shipments destined for military programmes, and also making it difficult to ask countries like China to act and shut down procurement channels," Mr Salisbury says. “The number of states that both seriously care about these transfers and have the means to do something about them is quite low.”

Mr Salisbury says microchip smuggling – and supplies from allies like China – is Iran’s great hope for scaling up drone capability. “Chips are much smaller and easier to transfer," he says.

"We have seen cases where procurement agents are personally trafficking them in suitcases on commercial flights, for example, or in diplomatic pouches. Supply chains for semiconductors are long and complex. They seem to – at least for the lower-end, off-the-shelf chips – involve many intermediaries and distributors. These firms often stock thousands of variants of the chips and have less understanding of what the goods can be used for.”

Despite these opportunities for Iran, Mr Withington cautions that copying only gets you so far, as the US fields next-generation technology. The drone-mounted T-Soar pod, for example, records an enemy radar wave, instantly copies it and broadcasts it back, meaning a Reaper could be almost invisible on radar. “The problem for the Iranians is that they're in danger of not just falling a generation behind, but actually being two generations behind in radar technology,” Mr Withington says.

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UPI facts

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Inter Milan 1 (Martinez 18' pen)

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Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Farage on Muslim Brotherhood

Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.

Updated: March 07, 2025, 11:25 AM