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The announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah early on Wednesday has been met with mixed emotions in Gaza, where many view it as a potential prelude to peace but others fear it will allow Israeli forces to concentrate on escalating operations in the enclave where war has been raging for more than a year.
The US-brokered truce halts Israel's brutal conflict with the Iran-backed group that has killed more than 3,700 people, with entire Lebanese villages wiped off the map. Cross-border attacks began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah intervened in Israel’s war on Gaza after the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, but escalated into a full-blown war in September this year.
Numerous attempts at diplomacy to strike a truce in Gaza over the past year have come to nothing, bar a temporary ceasefire a year ago. Israel's war on the enclave has killed about 44,300 people, displaced the majority of the population and caused a widespread humanitarian crisis. But some Palestinians are clinging on to the hope that a ceasefire in Lebanon could pave the way for a similar agreement in Gaza.
"The occupation’s strategy has always been to separate the fronts, rejecting a comprehensive agreement,” Mohammed Abu Sam'an, a resident of Gaza who has been displaced to Khan Younis, told The National. He believes that by isolating Gaza from the front in Lebanon, Israel will now seek to reach a deal on its own terms.
“By securing a deal in Lebanon, Israel can now focus on Gaza on its terms, treating it as a defeated, easy-to-control party," he added. “What Lebanon did was wise, as it prevented further bloodshed and destruction, halting a torrent of violence that seemed endless without an agreement."
Hamas expressed its commitment to co-operate with any efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza after the agreement between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect. The Palestinian group said any agreement on Gaza must entail a full ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of displaced people and a full prisoner swap deal.
The ceasefire agreement reached with Hezbollah in Lebanon could put pressure Israel over a truce in Gaza, Hamas's spokesman in Lebanon, Walid Al Kilani, told The National on Wednesday. He said the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will push for renegotiation with the Palestinian group – which he said remained firm on its terms.
The Hamas official also welcomed the ceasefire with its ally Hezbollah, adding that the group is “not bothered” by the cessation of war in Lebanon.
Others are less optimistic that an agreement is on the horizon and feel abandoned in their predicament without Hezbollah's support. Many fear Israel will now escalate its military operations in Gaza. Israel had redeployed some of its forces to the north before it launched an invasion of Lebanon two months ago.
“Now, with no active land front besides Gaza, Israel may redeploy northern units to broaden its ground offensives here," said Yusuf Al Mousa, from Gaza city. He said he feared other areas could come under heavy bombardment similar to parts of northern Gaza, which have been subjected to relentless air strikes and been under siege since early last month.
"Many Gazans hoped Lebanon’s support over the past 13 months would help end the war," Mustafa Ibrahim, a political analyst, told The National. He emphasised that recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have added to fears, particularly as Israel seeks to achieve its objectives in Gaza unopposed.
“Netanyahu’s rhetoric about extending control over Gaza and expanding settlements alarms us,” Mr Ibrahim said, highlighting the “massacres” and displacement in northern Gaza. He said that although Israeli hostages continue to be held by Hamas in Gaza, international pressure to resolve the conflict remains weak. Without any major developments, Mr Ibrahim believes the war could drag on for months.
Mr Al Mousa echoed similar disappointment, wishing Hezbollah's front had remained active until an end to the war in Gaza was secured. “Together, both fronts could pressure the occupation. Gaza alone is weak and ill-equipped.”
Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Gaza continued in the backdrop of the ceasefire announcement in Lebanon. Overnight strikes hit residential areas and schools housing displaced families. At least eight people were killed in a school in Gaza city, while three others were killed in an attack near Kamal Adwan Hospital in the north.
Low-level contact between mediators and Hamas leaders continues but communication has been limited to officials of the group outside Gaza, sources said. Those inside the Strip have been unreachable for weeks out of fear of detection by the Israelis, they added.
"It's unlikely that a Gaza ceasefire will be reached any time soon ... maybe after Trump takes office in January," said one source.
The sources said the Lebanon ceasefire deal will in many ways isolate Gaza, allowing Mr Netanyahu's government free rein in implementing its plans for the territory, including a buffer zone in the north of Gaza and holding on to the strip of land that runs alongside the Egypt-Gaza border, including the Rafah crossing.
