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Nearly eight weeks after Israel launched an all-out offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon with intensified bombing and a full-scale ground invasion, it is difficult to say which side has the upper hand. Both sides are keen to claim crushing blows on the enemy but analysts say these are hard to verify amid the chaos of fighting.
The escalation follows almost a year of low-level cross border exchanges in which Hezbollah launched rockets and drones, and the Israeli military responded with shelling and air strikes against the group’s commanders, launch sites and arms stores, culminating in the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 28.
What is clear so far is that the sum of violence has been far worse than when these foes last fought in 2006 – a 33-day war in which Hezbollah is thought to have fired about 4,000 rockets, a third of the number it has launched since last year. Israel bombed 7,000 targets in the last war, whereas it carried out 1,600 raids in only the 24 hours before launching its ground invasion in late September.
“Both the IDF [Israeli military] and Hezbollah need to project a certain image of victory,” said Tal Hagin, a conflict researcher specialising in open source analysis. “And we've seen that while Hezbollah used to be very formidable in terms of constantly publishing its dead, now they've stopped completely. Some believe it’s due to them losing the capability and organisation to do so amid war. Others say it’s a conscious effort to try to not showcase how badly they're being harmed.
“Meanwhile, there was a lot of uproar in Israel because there was a soldier filming where rockets were being fired into Israel a few days ago, saying ‘I thought we cleared that area, how are they firing rockets again from there?’” he said.
“We'll only have a better understanding of what's happening on the ground once the war is over.”
A US-led ceasefire effort is under way but neither side has let up on its attacks, with Israel expanding its air strikes to central Beirut since Sunday and Hezbollah hitting Tel Aviv as it fired 100 rockets into Israel on Monday.
No clear victory
Experts warn that whatever happens on the battlefield, it is hard to see a winner.
“Israel is waging a war of containment, with no room for outbreaks – [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has made that much clear. But it cannot win a decisive victory,” said Pierre Boussel, associate researcher at France's Foundation for Strategic Research, focused on the Middle East.
“It can only shatter Hezbollah's military apparatus. It is a long-term struggle aimed at wearing it down, bomb by bomb. But what happens when Israel has bombed everything and killed all the Hezbollah leaders? The most difficult part remains, a fight on the ground, the kind of struggle they lost in 2006. The man with the gun, who will be determined, very determined.”
Israel’s 2006 war in Lebanon is widely seen by analysts as a military failure.
In the current war, both sides have demonstrated powerful new capabilities. For Hezbollah, this has meant an increase in long-range drone attacks, with one striking Mr Netanyahu’s residence on October 19. It has used new weapons, such as the Almas anti-tank missiles that can engage targets behind hills. These have hit Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome missile defence system and other targets, including military excavators.
But Hezbollah has suffered heavily from Israel’s “intelligence preparation of the battlefield”, which involves detailed mapping of suspected enemy sites using drones, satellite reconnaissance and intercepted communications.
The group has found it hard to secure communications and movements on what analysts call the modern “transparent battlefield”, allowing Israel to repeatedly target scores of medium and high-level Hezbollah commanders. Some experts believe this shattering of command and control has muted the group’s operations.
The most extreme display of this was the detonations of pagers used by Hezbollah on September 17, which had been rigged with explosives and supplied by Israeli-run front companies. By some accounts the attack took about 1,500 Hezbollah fighters off the battlefield, either dead or wounded.
Israel must have begun intelligence preparation years in advance, Mr Hagin says.
Under massive bombardment and facing an invasion by four Israeli army divisions, or about 40,000 soldiers, Hezbollah has struggled to retaliate.
Israel’s fear of Hezbollah firing 1,000-2,000 rockets a day has not materialised, although the group has launched powerful ballistic missiles and sent waves of hard-to-detect drones.
“If someone had told me Hezbollah would fire less than a few hundred rockets a day in full-scale war, I’d have laughed at them,” a former Israeli intelligence official told The National.
Israel’s air campaign “struck the archer, not the arrow”, Mr Hagin said, referring to the military concept of bombing suspected rocket launch and storage sites rather than using expensive interceptors – the Iron Dome’s cost $100,000 each – to hit rockets individually.
Hezbollah’s ground forces could yet pose a stiff challenge, said Joe Macaron, a security and politics expert and Wilson Centre fellow.
“Hezbollah has a hybrid structure that was built to adapt to different war scenarios. The group has suffered a big blow in its command and control, and now has a weaker leadership, but fighters on the ground have decentralised control and ability to continue fighting as needed,” Mr Macaron said.
“Hezbollah is now aiming to survive, which requires adaptation to new circumstances and rules of engagement. It will be difficult to return to the dynamics before this current confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.”
Mr Hagin said it may be too early to assess the ground campaign, where Hezbollah has fought bitter battles with Israeli forces, often killing several soldiers a day – including six in one day of fighting last week.
About 50 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Lebanon so far – fewer that the 121 in 2006, but ominous for Israel if the war does not end soon. Israeli army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has spoken about a “strain” on reservists and a lack of manpower amid economic woes in Israel.
Hezbollah’s claim of destroying 44 Merkava tanks, considered one the world’s most heavily armoured and equipped with the Trophy “active protection system” that can shoot incoming anti-tank missiles, could prove to be true – confirmed tank kills can be difficult to assess at long distances in the heat of battle. In 2006, a total of 45 Merkavas were hit with anti-tank missiles but less than half suffered armour penetration.
“We have been deceived by Hezbollah's communication, which is based on firepower: rockets and drones. Its main strength is still hand-to-hand combat,” Mr Boussel said.
“Its units, scattered along the Israeli border, enjoy a high degree of operational autonomy and here lies the quagmire the Israelis do not want to repeat.”
