Low appetite for Lebanon ceasefire despite revival of peace efforts

Israel believed to be unwilling to give up opportunity to weaken Hezbollah, while the Iran-backed group is keen to be seen as standing firm, experts say

The scene of an Israeli air strike in central Beirut on Thursday. AP

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Achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon faces several hurdles, a western diplomatic source and analysts told The National, as caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced Israel and Hezbollah had stepped up “diplomatic contact” ahead of a UN Security Council meeting

However, there is a low appetite for peace talks from “both sides”, a western diplomat told The National. A year of low-intensity conflict escalated into a full-scale war when Israel launched its intensive aerial campaign on September 23.

“It may take some time,” they said, because Israel is pushing to achieve its military objectives in Lebanon as long as it has a “US green light".

Diplomacy efforts notwithstanding, two separate Israeli air strikes hit central Beirut on Thursday, killing 22 people and injuring 117. Israeli media reported that Wafic Safa, a top negotiator and co-ordinator who was involved in the 2006 talks with Israelis, was the target of the strike.

A similiar diplomatic push to halt the fighting failed last month when Israel torpedoed a possible deal at the last minute and stunned western mediators by assassinating Hezbollah's leader in air strikes on Beirut, sources told The National.

Israel followed its escalated bombardment with a ground invasion of south Lebanon that Washington has publicly supported, saying the goal of the "limited" operation was to “degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure".

The death toll since September 23 has exceeded 1,500, according to Lebanese health authorities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened Lebanon this week with “destruction” similar to that in Gaza.

They [Israel] are not going to stop any time soon; they have a window of opportunity at least until the US elections

Karim El Mufti,
professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper there has been no progress regarding stopping the war and the US was “doing nothing” to reach a ceasefire.

In his statement on Thursday, Mr Mikati accused Israel of seeking to “hinder the success" of “Arab and international efforts".

Karim El Mufti, a professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris, told The National that Israel has no incentive to stop fighting in Lebanon.

“They are not going to stop any time soon; they have a window of opportunity at least until the US elections," Mr El Mufti said. "And time plays in their favour; a ceasefire would mean allowing the 'Axis' to regain strength and they have no interest in that.”

The Axis of Resistance, comprising Hezbollah and other Iran-backed political and armed groups in the Middle East, seeks to counter US and Israeli influence in the region.

Signs of flexibility

After refusing for months to halt its attacks on Israel unless there was a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah showed signs of flexibility for the first time after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members were detonated over two days last month, causing dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries. The explosions, blamed on Israel, followed the decimation of Hezbollah's senior leadership.

Last week, Mr Mikati called for an “immediate” ceasefire after meeting Mr Berri and Lebanese Druze politician Walid Joumblatt, former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party. The statement was seen as a sign of willingness by Hezbollah to dissociate the Gaza front from the Lebanese one. Mr Berri heads the Amal Movement, a Hezbollah ally, and has taken the lead in political negotiations on behalf of the group, considered a terrorist organisation by most western countries.

During a speech on Tuesday, deputy Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said the group supported a ceasefire for Lebanon without mentioning a Gaza truce as a prerequisite, while not clearly decoupling the two fronts.

Mr El Mufti said Hezbollah was trying to maintain some sort of ambiguity and “cannot accept a ceasefire at any cost” after its significant losses.

“Mr Qassem did not signal surrender: Hezbollah is cornered, much like Iran. They are compelled to stand firm against Israel for their survival as both an armed and political group. Continuing to fight back is also essential to counter internal threats from the opposition,” he said.

“In any case, Lebanon is in the abyss and there is no genuine willingness to exit the crisis, neither internally nor internationally.”