Boycotting the latest international bid to broker a ceasefire in Sudan has squandered an opportunity for army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan to end his country's 16-month-old civil war and handed his rival, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces RSF, a shot at international legitimacy, analysts say.
The veteran soldier, moreover, may have no alternative to negotiating a settlement to the conflict given that the RSF controls much of the vast Afro-Arab nation, including the capital Khartoum.
Gen Al Burhan's decision to stay away from the US-sponsored talks in Geneva, which ended on Friday, came at a time when Sudan's 48 million people desperately need a reprieve from a conflict that has made it home to the world's worst humanitarian crisis.
Half of Sudan's population is facing acute hunger, with famine declared at a large camp for the displaced in its western Darfur region this month. At least 10 million Sudanese have been displaced by the war, two million of whom crossed into neighbouring nations, the UN estimates.
An outbreak of cholera, devastating floods and the deadly collapse this week of a dam in eastern Sudan have all added to a grim picture of human suffering in the country.
A prominent Sudanese analyst, Osman Al Mirghany, said of the general: “Him and his side have lost a great deal by staying away from Geneva. They've wasted an opportunity to work towards a peace deal. Curiously, Al Burhan does not seem to have a feasible alternative to the talks. What he did was a leap into darkness.”
Gen Al Burhan argues that staying away from the Geneva talks reflected his opposition to what he saw as the abandonment of the so-called Jeddah Forum, a reference to the negotiations sponsored by the US and Saudi Arabia in the early days of the war that produced a series of ceasefires that failed to pause the fighting.
The Jeddah Forum also produced a deal in May 2023 that committed the army and the RSF to the protection of civilians and allowing humanitarian assistance to reach those in need. Neither side implemented the deal, but Gen Al Burhan insists the RSF must abide by its provisions, including vacating private homes and state installations, before he joins peace talks.
Gen Al Burhan has also complained that the US wanted senior military officers to represent his side of the conflict in the Geneva talks, ignoring his wish for a government delegation to do so.
To be represented by the army alone, say analysts, equates the armed forces with the RSF, which the army dismisses as a mutinous militia made up of mercenaries. This, they add, robs Gen Al Burhan and his administration from being viewed internationally as Sudan's legitimate rulers.
"A military delegation does not mean it's not representing the government. The military is part of the state and its delegation can include civilians acting as advisers," said Mr Al Mirghany.
Sudan has effectively had no government or prime minister since Gen Al Burhan and his former ally RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo seized power in a coup in October 2021, toppling a civilian-led government and derailing Sudan's democratic transition after dictator Omar Al Bashir was removed from power in 2019.
Gen Al Burhan has since named senior civil servants to run ministries, but retained the final say on policy and expenditure in the country in what has left Sudanese in most army-controlled regions without basic services or state support.
Addressing a news conference on Sunday, he said he intended to form an interim government to run the country, a promise some analysts say he has repeatedly made in the past but never honoured.
“One of Al Burhan's problems is that his actions are guided by calculations serving only his political ambitions. Sometimes he is also guided by pressure from his allies. He does not want ministers or a prime minister who could share the decision-making process,” said Mr Al Mirghany.
Another Sudanese analyst, Sami Saeed, believes Gen Al Burhan saw the Geneva talks as an “ambush” from which he could not gain anything. Instead his participation could have enshrined the de facto situation created by the RSF on the ground and handed the paramilitary a diplomatic victory.
The RSF attended the Geneva talks, which brought together representatives from Saudi Arabia, fellow host Switzerland, Egypt, UAE, the African Union and the UN. The army's boycott forced their deliberations away from the search for a ceasefire, leaving them focused instead on Sudan's humanitarian crisis.
“The RSF has a strong desire to see a peace deal reached because it's war-fatigued and because it is desperate for international acceptance," said Mr Saeed.
In an apparent bid to win over the mediators in Geneva, the RSF has not been involved in major military operations for at least two weeks, said Mr Saeed. Instead, it has restricted itself to holding on to its positions on the outskirts of several cities in western and southern Sudan that it is believed to be on the cusp of capturing.
The army, on the other hand, has been launching air strikes on RSF positions in populated areas, killing scores of civilians. Both the army and the RSF are accused of committing war crimes.
“The RSF are trying to take advantage of the army's mistakes to enhance its international standing,” said Mr Saeed. “Its attempt to do so is bolstered by the fact that it has control over potential humanitarian routes that, if secured, could take humanitarian assistance to where the hunger is worst.”
Gen Al Burhan, meanwhile, has vowed to carry on fighting.
“We will not squander the rights of the Sudanese people. We will fight for 100 years,” he told Saturday's news conference in Port Sudan, the government's temporary seat after much of the capital Khartoum was captured by the RSF during the early days of the war.
“This war will not end until this militia is eradicated and we have liberated every inch they desecrated. We are not prepared to listen to anything else and we are not going anywhere nor are we negotiating with anyone.”
