Sudan's army-backed government has indicated it will stay away from US-sponsored peace talks scheduled to take place in Switzerland this week, a move that throws efforts to pause the war into doubt.
A statement on Sunday night strongly suggested the government did not intend to participate in the negotiations, stopping short of an outright rejection.
It listed, though, several contentious issues its delegates failed to resolve after two days of consultations with US officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 9 and 10.
"We have not given up hope that the SAF will attend the talks," Tom Perriello, US special envoy for Sudan, said on Monday, referring to the Sudanese Armed Forces.
Mr Perriello said the talks will go ahead even in the absence of representatives from the army-backed government, adding in this case they would focus on an "international and regional road map" to bring about an end to the fighting.
"We are 100 per cent confident that this will proceed," he said. "He will launch these efforts on August 14.
"We will not be able to do in-person mediated talks with parties if the parties are not there, even if one party is not there," the envoy said during a briefing at the US mission in Geneva.
Analysts say the army, bogged down in a civil war against a powerful paramilitary since April 2023, will have no choice but to negotiate a ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid to reach the millions of Sudanese facing hunger and displacement.
"They will have to join sooner or later," Sudanese analyst Khaled Saad said of the army's reluctance to take part in the negotiations. "They will be complex, go on for a long time and will not produce quick results."
The situation in Sudan has the potential to become worse and eventually affect neighbouring nations, some of which are close US allies, he explained. "That, in turn, will prompt more US engagement and more pressure on parties to work towards a settlement," he added.
The consultations in Jeddah were requested by the Sudanese government. Their inconclusive end was announced by the head of the Sudanese delegation, Minerals Minister Mohammed Abu Nimo. US Special envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello, led the American side.
“The matter of Sudan's participation is now left to the leadership [army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan] and its assessment,” said Mr Abu Nimo, Sudanese Minister of Minerals. “There certainly are many details that prompted us to decide to end the consultations without an agreement.”
Mr Perriello said: "We are very clear that the priority in this process is to reach that cessation of hostilities, civilian protection, humanitarian access and enforcement.
"This is not the place for the political dialogue that the Sudanese people believe should be an inclusive political dialogue."
The US envoy said the army's presence was welcome as the mediation would be a "great opportunity" for all parties involved in the war.
"We will respect his sovereign decision to come or not come," Mr Perriello said of Gen Al Burhan.
The government later said the US side “did not commit to forcing the mutinous militia … to protect civilians in Sudan”, alluding to the paramilitary Rapid Support forces, which has been fighting the army since April last year and is led by Gen Al Burhan's former ally Gen Mohamed Dagalo.
“We reject the presence of any new observers or facilitators and welcome any initiatives that meet, respond and safeguard the nation's sovereignty and the dignity of the Sudanese people,” said the statement.
It also said the US side failed to justify to the Sudanese delegates the rationale behind creating a “new forum” in Geneva to replace the one created in Jeddah during the early days of the war and sponsored by only Saudi Arabia and the US.
The statement also said the Sudanese delegates also rejected what they called US insistence that the government's delegation in Geneva be led by a senior army officer to "facilitate the process".
Gen Al Burhan is known to have the last word on policy in a government where power essentially lies with him and his army lieutenants.
Representing the army by a government delegation enhances Gen Al Burhan's image as the legitimate ruler of Sudan, not the leader of one of the two warring sides, the analysts say.
“The US delegation also relied (during the Jeddah consultations) on incorrect information in assessing the situation in Sudan,” the statement said. It did not elaborate.
Representatives of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the African Union and the UN were expected to attend the Geneva talks.
Mr Perriello said the Geneva talks were an "extension of Jeddah". He highlighted the importance of Egypt and the UAE being present to ensure "there's not just a deal on paper" but they can also "become more like guarantors for the kind of outcomes the Sudanese people asked for".
The army, moreover, is opposed to the participation of the eight-nation regional group known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
"We are very, very serious about welcoming a senior SAF delegation that has decision-making authority in order to move forward at the pace we think is needed," the US envoy said.
The army has in the past accused the bloc, whose members are drawn from East and the Horn of Africa as well as the Great Lakes regions, of bias towards the RSF.
The RSF has said it would participate in the Geneva talks.
The war in Sudan started when weeks of tension between the army and the RSF over their role in a hoped-for democratic Sudan boiled over into violence, with fighting engulfing the capital Khartoum as well as western and southern Sudan.
Millions in Sudan now face hunger with famine declared in a large displacement camp in the western region of Darfur. At least 10 million people, about 20 per cent of the population, have been displaced by the fighting.
Both the army and the RSF are accused of war crimes, with the paramilitary facing charges of ethnically motivated attacks in Darfur and sexual assault. The army is accused of killing hundreds of civilians in air strikes targeting RSF positions located in populated areas.
The US and Saudi Arabia mediated ceasefire talks in Jeddah during the early days of the war, leading to a string of truces that proved short-lived or were completely ignored.
The army has since rejected several invitations from the mediators to resume the talks, insisting that the RSF must first vacate private homes and state installations they have occupied since the start of the war.
"Al Burhan will have to eventually return to negotiations because he realises there are consequences for not doing so," said prominent Sudanese analyst Osman Al Mirghany.
