Hardly a day goes by in Iran without its incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian updating the country on progress in forming his new cabinet. His overwhelmingly reformist candidates for ministers have already riled conservatives who were defeated in the presidential poll last month.
So far, he has appointed Mohammed Reza Aref, an aide to former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, as his First Vice President while Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator, is expected to become Foreign Minister.
He is “institutionalising a transparent process, outside the control of power and wealth circles”, said former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who has been asked by the new leader to oversee the selection process.
Mr Pezeshkian, 70, a heart surgeon, takes the oath of office on Tuesday. He belongs to Iran’s reformist movement whose beginnings can be traced back to Islamists sidelined after the 1979 revolution.
However, the concept has been so stretched, even to encompass figures who have allowed violent suppression of civil disobedience, that observers doubt whether the new leader can – or is willing – to pursue significant change.
Mr Pezeshkian is the latest in a line of political figures who have pledged to bring social and political change to Iran, while staying clear of directly challenging the limits of the theocracy that replaced Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s reign after the 1979 revolution.
A turnout rate of 50 per cent in the presidential elections indicated mass dissatisfaction with the system, and the reformist movement has been beleaguered by clampdowns and internal disputes that have undermined its credibility.
“The golden era of the reformists was during Mr Khatami’s era and at no other time have they been able to repeat it,” said conservative Iranian commentator Mohammed Mohajeri.
“The reformists have not been able to return to their golden era – and the possibility of them doing so is not very high.”
Mr Khatami, a cleric who left power after his second term expired in 2005, espoused non-violence. He was the driving force behind the decision to open up the political space, including the move to allow political parties and organisations not linked to the government.
Mr Pezeshkian was health minister at the time. His ability to effect change will remain checked by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a council under his control, with de facto veto power on who can hold office.
Major foreign policy shifts, such as a complete reversal of approach toward the US or the end of Iran’s regional involvement are in the supreme leader’s hands, not Mr Pezeshkian’s.
This means that even if the new cabinet is mostly made up of reformists – by law, Mr Pezeshkian must reveal his candidates to parliament within a fortnight – his powers to make good on pledges for more women’s rights and other social reforms are limited.
Mr Pezeshkian partly won because the Iranian electorate was put off by conservative candidates, mostly from the extreme end of the political spectrum, observers said.
His competitor in the second run-off vote was Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Basij, volunteer security forces linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, another part of the system outside Mr Pezeshkian’s control.
Iranian society “has given a loud no to the fundamentalists”, said Mahdi Arab Sadegh, a Tehran-based member of the House of Parties of Iran, an organisation working on the development of political parties.
Iran’s youthful society is showing increasing dissent towards the country’s strictures, despite the crushing of mass protest movement over the past two decades.
The economy has also been struggling under US sanctions and discontent has risen against a new elite that has amassed wealth while the population at large has suffered.
“Most people are not very hopeful,” said a Tehran resident. “Now, we will have to see if, in the next four years, they [the reformists] can change people’s minds. Of course, that’s going to be hard.”
Although a significant proportion of people in Iran appear to support change, observers cautioned that Mr Pezeshkian’s reformist bent does not mean he seeks to challenge limits set by Mr Khamenei.
The incoming President, they say, is not a reformer in the mould of Mr Khatami, who challenged the very establishment that produced him.
Mr Khatami was conspicuously absent from Mr Pezeshkian’s inauguration in Tehran on Sunday.
His absence was a sign that he does not want not to be seen as too close to the new leader, either because of possible differences between the two men or so as not to give political ammunition to Mr Pezeshkian's foes.
Dr Mohammed Al Sulami, head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies in Riyadh, expected Mr Pezeshkian’s reformist instincts to be contained by his own loyalty to the ideological tenets of the Islamic republic.
Dr Al Sulami said on the ideological spectrum, the President's place was between Mr Khatami and moderate former president Hassan Rouhani, who left office in 2021.
However, Mr Pezeshkian has a “fundamentalist” bent, “meaning that he belongs to the reformist current, while being totally committed to the directions of Khamenei and the line of the revolution, although he is not a cleric”.
He and Iran’s conservatives share enough common ground in seeking to maintain the Islamic republic system, in which they will be able to function together, commentators said.
“The hardliners know that if Pezeshkian cannot work, they are all in the same boat and they will drown together,” said Javad Heirannia, a Tehran-based political analyst.
The change of government could check the unchallenged influence conservatives had in choosing Iran’s next supreme leader.
Mr Khamenei, 85, supported former president Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May, as the one to replace him, the observers said.
However, his death has reignited the succession battle.
The uncertainty over who will follow Mr Khamenei could result in room for manoeuvre for Mr Pezeshkian, Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said over the phone from Berlin.
In the absence of an apparent successor to Mr Khamenei, the President's “influence and relevance in the political system” are expected to rise, as well as his “impact on the transition process”, said Mr Azizi.
But “the ayatollahs live very long”, he added.
