Lebanon and Israel 'one mistake' from war that could devastate both countries

For many living close to the border, the war has already begun

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Israel and Hezbollah could be one false move from starting a devastating war that neither wants, experts and security officials have told The National.

Both sides have been escalating their rocket fire and air strikes for weeks, sparking fears that the conflict is about to break into all-out war.

According to one Lebanese official aligned with Hezbollah, the war has already started.

“If you compare the start to now, it is a war. The Israelis … they are everywhere. Their escalation shows that they want Lebanon engaged into war,” he told The National.

The Israeli military and Hezbollah possess vast arsenals that would eclipse the damage from their last war in 2006.

Hezbollah is thought to have up to 150,000 rockets – enough to fire up to 1,500 a day, by some estimates, compared to about 15,000 in 2006.

Israel, meanwhile, has one of the largest air forces in the world, responsible for laying waste to most of Gaza, where almost 37,400 Palestinians have been killed since war began on October 7, according to local health officials.

It was sparked by Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people.

Karim El Mufti, a professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris, said: “The 2006 war is small compared to what this is, and what this could ignite into.”

The month-long war that year, sparked by a Hezbollah cross-border raid, led to more than 1,200 people in Lebanon being killed and about $5 billion in damage to the country.

About 120 Israeli soldiers and 40 civilians were killed in Israel, while nearly half a million Israelis and one million Lebanese were displaced.

The sharp rise in attacks in recent weeks has led to fears of a return to 2006, only far worse.

Israel wants to remove the security threat posed by Hezbollah so about 60,000 displaced residents can return home near the border, while the Lebanese armed movement said it will not cease its attacks until Israel ends its bombardment of the Gaza Strip.

It said it does not want a full-scale war but is prepared for one.

The Hezbollah-aligned official said that Lebanon wants Israel to abide by UN Resolution 1701, which brought to an end the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel – even if it has never been fully implemented in the 18 years since.

While Lebanon and Israel are technically enemy states, and the Lebanese government has repeatedly criticised Israel's actions in Gaza, Beirut has said it does not want a war but has little control over Hezbollah.

Lebanon accuses Israel of regularly breaching the terms of Resolution 1701 – whether by launching attacks on Israel, infringing on the country’s territory, or occupying land claimed by Beirut.

“[The Israelis] are always escalating, not only by the border,” the official said. “They are targeting all of Lebanon. It’s clear the Israelis are looking to get Lebanon engaged with this war. Lebanon does not want this war.”

On the other side, Israel would point to the fact that UNSC 1701 also calls for the disarmament of non-state militias – a reference to Hezbollah.

Israel has vowed to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, which the armed group firmly opposes.

Potential for ceasefire

The risk of escalation has led to a diplomatic effort by foreign powers, including the US and France, to avoid war.

US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and Israel this week. He said it was both “achievable” and “urgent” that a resolution be achieved.

He also said that the US's ceasefire proposal for Gaza “provides an opportunity to end the conflict” in the Israel-Lebanon border area.

The US has been pressing Israel and Hamas to formally accept the ceasefire deal approved by UN Security Council members, which would allow an initial six-week pause to fighting.

Hezbollah said it will not end its attacks until there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

The Hezbollah-aligned official also accused Israel of refusing to agree to the ceasefire, while repeating the accusation often levelled at Benjamin Netanyahu that the Israeli Prime Minister seeks to prolong his stay in office by attacking Lebanon.

Israel has not formally said it supports the ceasefire proposal. Hamas has made positive indications while also submitting requested changes.

“We didn’t hear from Netanyahu or [Israeli Defence Minister Yoav] Gallant that they have accepted,” said the Lebanese official.

“If you look at warfare strategy throughout modern history, this is one of the most controlled escalations ever,” Prof El Mufti told The National.

“But the Pandora’s Box is open in Gaza and unless that front is closed there’s going to be a potential explosion between Hezbollah and Israel.”

While a ceasefire in Gaza is seen as the best chance of defusing tension on the Lebanese border, some experts have warned that the long-standing tension between Hezbollah and Israel will remain regardless.

Already a war?

The tens of thousands of residents on either side of the border who have been displaced from their homes might say that war has already begun.

Both sides have expanded the scope and intensity of their attacks – with Hezbollah using ever more advanced weaponry and Israel hitting as far as Lebanon's northern border with Syria on the other side of the country.

The Lebanese official aligned said that Israeli escalation showed it wanted “Lebanon engaged into war”.

UN officials in Lebanon recently said that the risk of miscalculation remained high, a view heard elsewhere in the region.

“One mistake is a rocket hitting a bus full of school kids. That's World War Three and Four all together,” said Lior Shelef, an Israeli army reservist, who lives in Kibbutz Snir, a few kilometres from the Lebanese border.

“It's what will happen when this one mistake happens and it will happen eventually. It's just a question of when.

“When the game was in the buffer zone inside Lebanon, we could make sure that we're not making mistakes from our side. And if they're going to make mistakes, they're going to suffer the consequences.

"The problem is that today a mistake that will happen here can be severe. And the problem is that it will be very hard for us to convince people to come back and live here.”

While the risk of miscalculation remains high, Prof El Mufti said there were too many parameters to consider to know what “the straw that breaks the camel’s back” would be.

“This is very new for Israel. They don’t have solutions and they’re unable to think outside the box,” he added.

“They only have violent solutions that won’t work in this case.” For this reason “the Israelis will lose it first given how Hezbollah has behaved throughout the conflict".

“I don’t see Hezbollah overreacting because they have more to lose than the Israelis,” Prof El Mufti said.

Despite losing about 300 fighters, Hezbollah has maintained a policy of restraint since October 8, when it launched its first attack on Israeli positions.

Meanwhile, Israel is more likely to be a catalyst for an all-out war “because they have nothing to lose", Prof El Mufti said.

"They’ve already broken so many boundaries regarding their relationship to the US and the world’s perception of them, disengaging with international law and the ICJ and ICC … and getting away with it so far.

“They’ve been avoiding civilian targets, showing they abide by international law even though they are not recognised internationally as a resistance except by [its allies] and the Lebanese state.”

With strong Iranian backing, Hezbollah is also eager to re-establish deterrence. On Tuesday the group released drone footage deep in Israeli territory, over the port city of Haifa and nearby cities.

The drone had filmed Israeli military and civilian locations, sending a powerful reminder that the group is capable of doing much more damage in Israel than it did in 2006 – but that it has thus far restrained itself.