Last week’s quick stop in New Delhi by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed produced a letter of intent towards a strategic defence partnership – a move that has drawn attention in the region and beyond.
The letter of intent was signed alongside several other agreements. It signals a commitment by both countries to work towards a formal strategic defence partnership framework, expanding co-operation across areas such as defence industrial collaboration, training, technology, interoperability and other security domains, the office of India’s Prime Minister said.
Defence ties between the UAE and India have grown stronger recently. This month, Indian Army Chief Gen Upendra Dwivedi paid an official visit to Abu Dhabi aimed at deepening military co-operation and strategic dialogue. In December, the two countries’ armies took part in joint military exercises in the Emirati capital, focusing on enhancing interoperability and operational synergy in urban operations and built-up areas.
While the deal is still in its early stages, and it remains unclear how the partnership will take shape, analysts believe it could pave the way for closer military co-ordination, while also strengthening the UAE’s footprint in the Indian Ocean region.
“The decision by the UAE and India to elevate their bilateral defence relationship through enhanced military co-operation and joint weapons production marks the latest step in the deepening partnership between Abu Dhabi and New Delhi,” Giorgio Cafiero, chief executive of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy in Washington, told The National.
Geopolitical realignment
India's neighbour Pakistan signed a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last year. The agreement was seen as adding a new layer to the Gulf’s recalibrating security architecture. It came after Israel attacked members of the Hamas leadership in the Qatari capital Doha, a move that drew strong condemnation from Gulf states. Observers viewed the Saudi-Pakistani accord as part of Riyadh’s efforts to diversify its security options.
This month, Pakistani Minister for Defence Production Raza Hayat Harraj told Reuters that preparations were under way for a three-way draft defence agreement between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. He said the potential deal was separate from the Saudi-Pakistani accord announced last year. A final consensus between the three states is needed to complete the deal, he added.
India and Pakistan are both nuclear-armed states with long-standing tensions and a history of military stand-offs, raising persistent concerns about escalation, although neither has used nuclear weapons in conflict.
The UAE-India defence initiative builds on existing multilateral formats such as I2U2 – the grouping linking the UAE, India, the US and Israel – which has already positioned the Emirates and New Delhi as partners in integrating economic, technological and security co-operation across the Indo-Mediterranean space. The two countries are also part of Brics, an organisation of major emerging economies.
For India, the move is also tied to its long-standing strategic calculus with regards to Pakistan. “Against the backdrop of much uncertainty and turmoil in the Middle East and South Asia, it is clear that both the UAE and India believe that their interests can be advanced through strengthened ties,” Mr Cafiero said.
“It is difficult to assess this move towards a strategic defence alignment without situating it within the broader geopolitical realignments over the past year … as Riyadh strengthens its ties with Islamabad, Abu Dhabi and New Delhi deepen their multifaceted relationship across numerous domains including defence."
Diversifying allies
Gulf states in recent years have moved to diversify defence and military partnerships beyond traditional alliances. While the US remains a principal security guarantor, regional powers are seeking to reduce reliance on any single actor and bolster strategic autonomy.
The UAE, in particular, has adopted a nuanced approach, maintaining robust ties with eastern and western partners across different spheres. “The UAE has signed similar defence partnerships with France and the US – and now it is extending that approach to India,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University.
“The first thing to make clear is that this is not new to the way the UAE thinks about its security, its defence partners and the need to diversify its security portfolio. We are strong with America and Europe and now we are moving into Asia. And the most credible partner in Asia, above all others, is India."
Mr Abdulla said the UAE and India already had a comprehensive partnership, but the defence pillar was missing. "The strategic link, the economic link, the technological link – all of that now has to come together.”
Beyond defence, the UAE and India agreed to double bilateral trade to more than $200 billion by 2032.
Adnoc Gas has agreed to supply Hindustan Petroleum with 500,000 tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas for 10 years, starting in 2028. The LNG supply contract with India is valued between $2.5 billion to $3 billion, Adnoc said in a statement.
The UAE ranks as India’s third-largest trading partner and second-largest export destination, with exports exceeding $36.6 billion in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, data from the Indian embassy in Abu Dhabi shows. The UAE is home to about four million Indian citizens. India, in turn, is the UAE’s second-largest trading partner.
The UAE and India have worked closely for about a decade, but the return to office of US President Donald Trump led to an urgency to deepen the relationship.
India’s plan to expand trade with UAE comes at a time when the South Asian country’s exports to the US are under pressure, with Washington imposing a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods since August last year.
Since then, India has entered trade pacts with the UK and Oman. New Delhi said it expected talks on a long-sought trade deal with the EU to conclude this month.
