Ukrainian and Russian mediators met in Geneva today for another round of US-mediated peace talks that the Kremlin had said were expected to focus on land in the Donbas, the main sticking point in negotiations.
Russia and Ukraine also remain far apart on issues such as who should control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the possible role of western troops in postwar Ukraine.
However, some sources have indicated a “50-50” chance of a breakthrough in the coming days following productive discussions in Abu Dhabi earlier this month.
Trump's peace push
US President Donald Trump is pressing Moscow and Kyiv to reach a deal to end Europe's biggest war since 1945 with more than 1.6 million casualties on both sides. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has complained that his country was facing the greatest pressure to make concessions.
Mr Trump pointed to Ukraine when asked by reporters on Air Force One what he was expecting from the two days of discussions. “Well, we have big talks. It's going to be very easy. Ukraine better come to the table fast. That's all I'm telling you,” he said.
Mr Zelenskyy said diplomacy would be more effective with “justice and strength”. “Strength of pressure on the Russian Federation – sanctions pressure and steady, rapid support for the Ukrainian army and our air defence”, he wrote on social media.
Russia has demanded Ukraine cede the remaining 20 per cent of the eastern region of Donetsk that Moscow has failed to capture, something Kyiv refuses to do.
“This time, the idea is to discuss a broader range of issues, including, in fact, the main ones,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. “The main issues concern both the territories and everything else related to the demands we have put forward.”
Mediators gathered in Geneva after Abu Dhabi hosted two rounds of talks that both sides described as constructive, despite failing to achieve a major breakthrough.
The latest meeting comes days before the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As well as those killed, millions have fled their homes, and many Ukrainian cities, towns and villages have been devastated by the conflict.
Moscow's economic woes
Russia occupies about 20 per cent of Ukraine's national territory, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region seized before the 2022 invasion.
Ukraine has suffered significantly from Russia’s relentless bombing campaign against its energy infrastructure, with people left without heating in minus 20°C temperatures.
But the winter will pass and security officials believe that very soon the Russian economy could slow dramatically, especially if Urals oil continues to sell for less than $35 a barrel.
“There is a strong economic factor in Moscow’s sustainability of its campaign,” a security source said. “The war is doing very long-term damage to the Russian economy.”
The huge amounts paid to recruits – which can add up to $60,000 for their first year, five times the annual average income – may also be very difficult to sustain.
Given its estimated 30,000 casualties a month, Russia needs to continue recruiting at the same rate to fill the ranks. “Recruitment will become a real albatross on the economy and it’s now starting to become much more relevant,” the source said.
The negotiators
A major area of contention is that Russia believes that under what it calls the “Anchorage Agreements”, made during President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Mr Trump in August last year, the entire Donbas would be given up alongside other areas. This view has not been endorsed by the US.
The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Mr Putin, whose presence has lowered expectations of any significant breakthrough in Geneva. Ukrainian negotiators have previously accused him of lecturing them about history as an excuse for Russia's invasion.
Russian military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov is also involved in the talks, while Mr Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is part of a separate working group on economic issues.
Kyiv's delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council.
But the Ukrainians' unofficial leader is the former spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, now Mr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, who could prove a tough and uncompromising negotiator, like Mr Medinsky.
Before the delegation left for Geneva, Mr Umerov said Ukraine's goal of “a sustainable and lasting peace” remained unchanged. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – who will also attend talks with Iran in Geneva this week – were expected to represent the Trump administration at the talks.
