A call for Europe to unite behind its own nuclear deterrent faces government leaders as they gather for the Munich Security Conference.
The annual meeting of defence and foreign policy experts is assembling under the theme of Under Destruction, the pre-conference survey of the changing world order.
The 10,000 badge holders will be presented with the findings of the European Nuclear Study Group, led by Tobias Bunde, the conference’s head of research, which has looked at both Russian nuclear sabre-rattling and US security guarantees to the continent.
It has concluded that Europe faces a deterrence gap that it should close on its own. A debate long treated as politically untouchable has now become “urgent and unavoidable”, it says. “Europeans can no longer outsource their thinking about nuclear deterrence to the United States. The era in which Europe could afford strategic complacency has ended.
“However uncomfortable the debate may be, the new security environment requires European policymakers to confront the role of nuclear weapons in the defence of the continent directly and without delay.”
The pivot that is top of the agenda is underpinned by a pre-conference survey that showed growing numbers of Europeans distrust the US and see it as a potential future threat. Chancellor Friedrich Merz opens the meeting on Friday and then hosts talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Tense Europe-US relations stem from a year ago, when the US Vice President JD Vance delivered a bombshell speech in which he lectured Europeans on their values. Pan-European solidarity has emerged as a vital test for Europeans who last month faced US President Donald Trump's claims on Greenland.
Placating the US has also appeared on the agenda, with the launch of a Nato Arctic mission earlier this week apparently intended to do that. A “strong conventional presence of the US here in Europe” is “crucial”, the Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Thursday before a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels.
Asked on Wednesday if there was concern that Mr Trump would demand more over Greenland, Estonia's Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said: “We don't have to be concerned. We have to work together with Americans, together with the United States administration, to solve that topic.”
Fifteen prime ministers or heads of state from the European Union are expected to attend the conference. Keir Starmer will lead the UK delegation and attend a meeting of German and French leaders of the Iran-focused E3.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead a sizeable US delegation to the conference starting on Friday, underscoring the importance of transatlantic relations despite a “crisis of trust”, the head of the forum, Wolfgang Ischinger, said earlier this week.
At last year's conference, Mr Vance accused European leaders of censoring free speech and failing to control immigration. One of the main themes of the conference will be Europe's ability in the future to assert itself more strongly through its own capabilities and to speak with one voice, Mr Ischinger said.
Europeans, however, appear divided on how best to do that. A French attempt to push for a “buy European” preference has been disparaged by Germany and Nordic countries.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to attend the Munich Security Conference. Mr Macron and Mr Merz appeared to want to shut down rumours of tense relations by appearing together at an informal retreat for EU leaders in Belgium on Thursday.
The EU's foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas will host an informal gathering of EU foreign ministers on Sunday, her office said. Additionally, Ms Kallas will give a speech at a panel titled “Europeans Assemble: Reclaiming Agency in a Rougher World.”
Ms Kallas is scheduled to take part in a panel on Friday on the “International Order Between Reform and Destruction”. She will represent the EU at a meeting of G7 foreign ministers on Saturday.
The conference is also scheduled to hold an informal meeting on the reconstruction of Gaza that will be attended by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot.
Mr Barrot, who has just returned from a trip to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, will also meet the senior adviser to US President Donald Trump on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs, Massad Boulos, on Saturday.
