Russia launched a ballistic missile known as Oreshnik in a widespread overnight air attack on Ukraine, in response to what Moscow described as an attempted drone strike on one of President Vladimir Putin's residences.
The missile was fired at energy infrastructure and damaged apartment buildings, the Russian Defence Ministry said. It was part of a “massive strike with high-precision, long-range, land and sea-based weapons, including the Oreshnik”, it added.
It is the first significant attack, leading to civilian deaths, by Russia since the US seized a Russian-flagged, Venezuela-linked tanker in the North Atlantic on Wednesday, in a move expected to heighten tensions as peace talks struggle on.
Shipping experts told The National that the seizure of the Marinera could prove a “game changer” in tackling illicit trade, as well as affecting the Ukraine war.
This is the second time that Russia has used the Oreshnik. President Vladimir Putin has boasted that intermediate-range missile is impossible to intercept because of its reported velocity of more than 10 times the speed of sound.
The attack was roundly condemned following a phone call by the E3 – the leaders of Germany, France and Britain.
“Russia's ongoing attacks in Ukraine, including the use of an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in western Ukraine this morning, were escalatory and unacceptable, the leaders agreed,” Downing Street said in a statement.
It was clear that Russia was using “fabricated allegations” of a drone attack on Mr Putin’s residence to justify the attack, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer added.
The Oreshnik hypersonic missile is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but there was no suggestion the one used overnight was fitted with anything other than a conventional warhead.
"The strike's targets were hit. The targets included facilities producing unmanned aerial vehicles used in the terrorist attack [allegedly against Mr Putin's residence], as well as energy infrastructure supporting Ukraine's military-industrial complex," the Russian ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine has consistently denied attacking Mr Putin’s residence in the Novogorod region at the end of December, calling it “an absurd lie” aimed at sabotaging already troubled peace talks.
US President Donald Trump has said he does not believe the strike on the residence took place, but that "something" unrelated happened nearby.
Stormy seas
The US move on the Marinera tanker could also embolden western powers to act against other ships sailing despite sanctions. Such action could seriously weaken financing for the Russian war effort in Ukraine and undermine the embattled regime in Tehran, analysts said.
With Russia dependent on an estimated $100 billion income from illicit exports, any tightening of sanctions would give the West a strong hand in peace negotiations. “There’s a big chance that this might be a game changer,” said sanctions specialists Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
The momentum from America’s action was already influencing allies, especially the UK, which he said was “indicating a greater appetite to take harder measures than it’s done before”.
Nick Childs of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that while western countries “shied away from pushing the boundaries for fear of possible escalation and retaliation … the risk calculus is now changing".
While UK defence officials have briefed they will act robustly, an estimated 50 sanctioned shadow tankers have this week passed through British waters, including the English Channel. But if more vessels are seized, it could herald “a new dawn in maritime cargo when it comes to enforcement of sanctions", said global security expert Ella Rosenberg, of the Jerusalem Centre for Foreign Affairs.
But she warned that Russia and Iran “will not take it lightly" and could retaliate by targeting tankers flying the flags of western nations, as Tehran did in 2019 after Britain seized as Iranian-flagged ship off Gibraltar.
However, going after sanctioned tanker networks could have cascading geopolitical effects, Ms Rosenberg said. “If you want to tackle Russia, you also need to tackle Iran,” she added, suggesting that action against Iran-linked vessels may further destabilise Tehran’s economy.
Making it more difficult for Iran to export oil would have an impact on the Middle East and increase the risk of Tehran looking to shut the Strait of Hormuz. “The mere fact they might not be able to export oil means a lot of turbulence,” she said.
With sanctioned tankers still moving towards Russian ports and western powers considering their next steps, the Marinera case may not be the last high-profile maritime confrontation.
Grave threat
Meanwhile, Russia’s Oreshnik missile strike close to the border with EU and Nato states was a “grave threat” to European security, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Friday. He called on allies to increase pressure on Moscow.
Mr Sybiha said Kyiv would inform the US, European states and other countries about the details of the strike through diplomatic channels. "Putin uses an IRBM [intermediate-range ballistic missile] near the EU and Nato border in response to his own hallucinations – this is truly a global threat and it demands global responses," he said.
Moscow first fired an Oreshnik, Russian for hazel tree, against what it said was a military factory in Ukraine in November 2024. On that occasion, Ukrainian sources said the missile carried dummy warheads, not explosives, and caused limited damage.
The Ukrainian air force confirmed on Friday that Russia fired the missile from the Kapustin Yar test range, near the Caspian Sea. In the attack, Russia launched 242 drones, 13 ballistic missiles, 22 cruise missile and one intermediate-range ballistic missile from the site, Ukraine’s Air Defence said.
Temperatures are set to plunge below freezing across Ukraine in the coming days, further straining the country’s heating and energy infrastructure.
The attacks, launched nearly four years after Mr Putin’s invasion began, come amid negotiations between Mr Zelenskyy’s team and the US on bringing an end to the war, including security guarantees.
Those guarantees are now “essentially ready” to be finalised with Mr Trump, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Thursday. The Ukrainian leader earlier said he expected to meet Mr Trump soon for discussions.
