The US Coast Guard’s seizure of the Russian-flagged Marinera oil tanker off the coast of northern Britain raises a host of questions.
Was it legal? If not, what stress does it put on the already strained US-UK relationship, with Britain providing airbases to help track down the vessel?
And will it raise tensions with Moscow, at a time when US President Donald Trump is trying to get President Vladimir Putin’s acquiescence to a Ukraine peace deal?
The Marinera (or Bella 1, as it then was) slipped anchorage off Venezuela on December 20 after refusing the initial US Coast Guard boarding request.
A lot has happened since then, with the US apprehending Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro before seizing a ship registered to its old foe, Russia.
But there is a suggestion, according to former Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe, of some “back-channel” between Washington and Moscow before the boarding.
The Marinera appeared to turn into the wind, allowing the helicopter to deploy, which suggests that the vessel was a “compliant”, Mr Sharpe added.
Oil shipments
But this operation could also herald the start of the US taking steps against the shadow fleet, whose “ghost ships” make it difficult to apply sanctions globally.
In what could be a growing move against the fleet, US Southern Command said the coast guard had also intercepted another Venezuela-linked tanker, the M Sophia, in the Caribbean.
“The Trump White House really is keen to have more control over the high seas with Venezuela particularly in its sights,” said military analyst Lynette Nusbacher.
She said this will be treading on Russia’s toes and, more importantly, China’s, should the US wish to use Venezuela as a “resource base that is more or less exclusively American”.
The Americans “would really like to see the Chinese drawing their oil from elsewhere", she said. But the US is not going to “start a fight with China over a couple of cargoes of crude at this point”, so Beijing’s tankers will, for now, be able to fill up in Venezuela.
The Panama-flagged and sanctioned supertanker M Sophia had departed from Venezuelan waters in early January as part of a fleet carrying oil to China.
Underlining the point, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X: “The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in full effect – anywhere in the world.”
Former naval officer Ami Daniel, founder of leading maritime AI company Windward, suggested that “China won't be happy” as Venezuela exports most of its oil to China, including that on the M Sophia. False flagging does not “seem like it's protecting the Dark Fleet any more”, he added.
If parts of the global shadow fleet move away from Venezuela, the logical idea will be to turn to other sanctioned regions. “What will this do the rest of the shadow fleet?” he added.
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US forces have announced the seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker linked to Venezuela, in the North Atlantic. AFP -
After a transatlantic pursuit by the US Coast Guard lasting more than two weeks, military personnel carried out an operation to take over the Marinera. AFP -
A still from footage posted by US Department of Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem of the US Coast Guard carrying out a pre-dawn interception of the ship. Photo: Kristi Noem / X -
The US military boards the Marinera, which was said to have carried illegal cargo for a company allegedly owned by Hezbollah. Photo: Kristi Noem / X -
The tanker evaded US authorities for weeks, initially under the name Bella 1. Reuters -
A Boeing P-8 Poseidon takes off from RAF Mildenhall in the UK. The Marinera was being monitored by similar maritime reconnaissance aircraft. Getty Images -
US military aircraft sit on the tarmac at RAF Mildenhall. Getty Images
Flagging legalities
A question now arises over the legality of the seizure of the Marinera, which rests on its reflagging while at sea. While ships have the protection of their flag state under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, this only applies when registration is genuine and lawful.
It appears that the Marinera’s change from Bella-1, a ship sanctioned by US Treasury as a Hezbollah-linked vessel, took place at sea without a port inspection. This suggests a grey area over whether it had genuinely obtained Russian nationality.
Reports stated that Russia had a boat nearby, but it would have been subjected to heavy surveillance and intelligence gathering by both US and RAF P-8 Poseidon maritime aircraft.
There are also questions over why Russia could not provide a surface ship that would have made the US boarding operation much more challenging. The capabilities of the Murmansk-based Northern Fleet have been pressured by four years of the Ukraine war.
Airbase assets
Just a day after condemning America's comments about seizing Greenland, Britain was more than compliant in allowing US forces to use UK airbases.
Indeed, Whitehall probably saw it as a good opportunity to prove its worth to Washington, where the Maga view is that Europe is a place of defence freeloaders, by providing a tanker to refuel the coast guard ship and RAF surveillance aircraft.
The UK Ministry of Defence clearly views the Marinera’s seizure as legal and indeed used it as an opportunity to bash Russia.
Defence Secretary John Healey did not hold back on attacking Russia and its involvement in the illicit oil trade with a ship connected to Hezbollah.
“This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fuelling terrorism, conflict and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine,” he said in a statement.
Mr Healey vowed that Britain would “continue to step up our action against shadow fleet activity” to help ensure global stability.
This year has started with hefty shifts in geopolitics whose consequences could prove substantial.
