Germany's rival parties will need to bridge significant gaps in their approach towards Israel, Palestine, Syria and Iran if they hope to share power after Sunday's general election.
Election frontrunner Friedrich Merz is promising a more robust pro-Israel stance and an end to what he describes as an arms embargo by stealth. His centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) also want Germany to increase pressure on Iran and carry out "regular deportations" to Syria and Afghanistan.
But polls suggest at least one of Germany's current ruling parties – Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), or the Greens – will be needed as a coalition partner for Mr Merz to reach a majority, potentially watering down any shift in Middle East policy. The Greens want a resumption of nuclear talks with Iran and say Israel cannot have a "blank cheque" for arms exports.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – backed strongly by the inner circle of US President Donald Trump – wants a more radical policy shift involving outreach to Russia and a larger-scale return of Syrians. It has campaigned in parts of the country with fake plane tickets to send illegal migrants on a one-way journey home.
It looks set for its best result of about 20 per cent, current polling indicates. While mainstream parties have toughened their immigration rhetoric in response to the AfD's rise, all have ruled out working with the party in a coalition. Despite this, Mr Merz had to rely on AfD support in a parliamentary vote last month to pass a resolution demanding tougher immigration rules. The move sparked protests against a breach of the "firewall", the long-standing refusal of mainstream parties in a country haunted by its Nazi past to co-operate with extremist parties.
In a final head-to-head TV debate with Mr Scholz before Sunday's general election, Mr Merz warned that it is the last chance to halt the surge of the AfD.
"In the next four years we must solve two big problems for this country: migration and the economy," he said, warning that otherwise "we will definitively slide into right-wing populism".
Mr Scholz said that if re-elected he would continue efforts to deport foreign criminals but also said deadly attacks such as a car-ramming last week in Munich must not be allowed to "divide society".
With immigration and the economy regarded as the two key voter issues, pollsters say foreign policy is a lower priority for centrist-minded Germans. "It’s an item for people on the left, it’s an item for people on the right, but people in the centre don’t mention the international situation as a key concern," said Nicolas Becuwe of research company Verian.
Foreign affairs would help dictate coalition talks, however, making certain constellations unlikely – such as any alliance between the CDU and Russia-friendly populist parties – and most likely forcing Mr Merz to seek compromises with his rivals. The National has picked out the key points from their manifestos.
Israel and Palestine
There is broad agreement that Germany has what is often called a "special responsibility" towards Israel arising from the Holocaust. All mainstream parties make a point of condemning Hamas violence, asserting Israel's right to defend itself and vowing to tackle anti-Semitism, while declaring support for a two-state peace settlement.
Within that there are differences in how far parties support Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza. Mr Merz's CDU offers the strongest backing, saying Germany should provide military aid, end "export blockades", and stand "firmly at Israel's side". It wants to develop closer research ties and cut funding from charities who fail to adopt a contested definition of anti-Semitism.
The CDU also wants to make it a condition for German citizenship that applicants must "acknowledge Israel's right to exist". That proposal was rejected by the Bundestag in 2024 in an overhaul of German nationality law that gave Syrian refugees, among others, a faster route to a passport.
Mr Scholz's Social Democrats take a more cautious tone, saying Israel's security is "non-negotiable" but warning it must abide by the laws of armed conflict and address the "catastrophic humanitarian situation" in Gaza. In a plea for a two-state solution, they say Israel must stop building settlements in the occupied West Bank, while a reformed Palestinian Authority must ensure there is "no more danger to Israel from Gaza".
The Greens likewise assert Israel's right to defend itself but say this does not amount to a "blank cheque for arms exports". They warn they would block them if there is not enough protection for civilians.
Syria
The fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime in Syria immediately triggered a debate in Germany about the future of almost a million Syrian refugees living in the country. The AfD is calling for mass deportations of Syrians who arrived illegally in Germany and an assertive campaign to encourage others to leave.
The parties vying for power are somewhat less strident, although the CDU has floated the idea of offering Syrians money if they return home. It says people living with "subsidiary protection" status in Germany, as many Syrians do, should no longer be able to bring their families with them.
The CDU also promises "regular deportations" to both Syria and Afghanistan. Mr Scholz's government arranged a first flight to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan last August with 28 convicted criminals on board and has signalled interest in deporting people to Syria.
The SPD manifesto merely calls for a "political transition" and urges the new regime to respect minorities and human rights. One Syrian-born Green candidate, Ahmad Al Hamidi, told The National it was too soon to talk about returns, and the party's manifesto rejects "hasty demands" for deportations while calling for sanctions to be rolled back.
In German hospitals, about 15 per cent of all medical professionals have a foreign passport, including an estimated 5,000 Syrian doctors. And the share of foreign workers is expected to grow as older generations head into retirement, without enough domestic trainees to replace them.
About "40,000 skilled immigrants" a year are needed to make up the "demographic deficit", said Gerald Gass, the head of the German hospitals' association.
Mr Merz said he would demand a shift to a more restrictive migration policy in any coalition and pointed to neighbouring Denmark where such measures saw off the far-right.
Iran
Germany's Iran policy under Mr Scholz has been marked by worsening relations on several fronts. Three Iranian consulates in Germany were closed last year after the execution of dual citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, although some channels of communication have been kept open.
The CDU is now calling for "more realism and toughness" in Iran policy. "Iran is not only the greatest threat to [Israel], but one of the biggest endangerers of world peace," says its manifesto, which calls for closing sanctions loopholes and "increasing pressure" on the regime in Tehran.
There is disagreement on the prospects of nuclear diplomacy with Iran, which Mr Merz's party describes as having failed after the regime stepped up uranium enrichment. The SPD condemns Iran for blocking inspections, but the Greens say there should be "further diplomatic efforts" that learn the lessons of the 2015 deal abandoned by US President Donald Trump.
One thing the CDU, SPD and Greens all support is listing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorists. That is easier said than done, though, as it requires agreement at EU level and has been bogged down for years in legal arguments.
