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One in eight Syrian refugees living in Germany were born in their family's adopted homeland, and almost one in four never knew pre-war Syria, analysis by The National reveals.
Newly published data shows many Syrians now have deep roots in Germany, leaving them with a dilemma over whether to answer the call by rebel commander Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani, for exiles to return home.
With much of Europe eager to discuss returns after the fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime, the German party leading polls before February's general election has proposed giving Syrians €1,000 ($1,050) to head home. But the decision will not be clear-cut for many.
About a third of Syrian refugees are children, another third are married, and many others have progressed to the stage of German citizenship. Most refugees are under 30 and the “average” Syrian migrant has lived in Germany for more than eight years, making life in Europe a cornerstone of all they have ever known.
Almost a fifth of working-age Syrians are still in education or training and just under half are employed. Entering the job market has been a slow process, not least because of problems with having qualifications recognised in Germany when paperwork has been destroyed or left behind during Syria's civil war.
“There's certainly a group that has never felt quite like they really arrived here properly or were able to build a new life, which depends on a variety of reasons, one of them being that it was hard to have certain things recognised,” said Rebekka Rexhausen, a Syria expert at the Centre for Middle East and Global Order in Berlin.
“But there's definitely a huge chunk of Syrians that have built up a life here, that have set up a business here, that are well integrated into their job, that have built family ties and relationships here,” she told The National. She said Germany might also lose out if Syrian doctors or care workers were to head home.
Germany is home to Europe's biggest Syrian diaspora after opening its gates at the height of a 2015 refugee crisis. About 370,000 people who arrived in that period are still living in Germany on the basis of their claim to protection, meaning a majority of today's 712,000 Syrian refugees have been in the country close to a decade.
Prominent members of the 2015 generation have spoken out against the idea of Syrians being forced out. Tareq Alaows, who became the first Syrian refugee to seek election to the German parliament in 2021, said it showed a “lack of empathy towards people who have already experienced unfathomable suffering”.
Anas Modamani, who became a face of the 2015 intake after taking a selfie with chancellor Angela Merkel at a refugee camp in Berlin, celebrated Mr Al Assad's fall but said he does not want to return. “I am a Berliner, I have my life here,” said Mr Modamani, who works as a video producer and has a German passport.
Mrs Merkel recalled the selfie in her recent memoir, rejecting the suggestion that the image of a warm welcome spurred others to seek refuge in Germany. Even the “grimmest possible expression” would not have stopped people leaving Syria, she wrote.
After a resurgence in Syrian arrivals since 2021, a backlog of asylum claims has built up and about 81,000 people are currently in limbo. Compared to 2015, fewer Syrians now receive a full three-year refugee permit, with many instead given one-year “subsidiary protection”. But only about 7,000 have had asylum claims rejected or would already be in line for deportation if a route to Damascus became available.
Of the 712,000 Syrians currently claiming protection in Germany, 33 per cent are children and 59 per cent are under 30, meaning they were no older than teenagers when war broke out. More than 167,000 (24 per cent) were born in 2011 or later, meaning they could never have known Syria at peace.
Germany tightened its asylum law in the autumn to allow people to be stripped of refugee status if they return home on holiday. Officials have hinted that some latitude will be granted after Mr Al Assad's dramatic downfall.
The refugee cohort does not include Syrians who have taken up German citizenship or live in Germany on work visas. More than 75,000 Syrians secured a passport last year alone, about a third of whom took a fast-track route by taking integration classes or excelling at learning German.
But the lack of recognised job qualifications has been a barrier to integration for some. “Germany, let's say, has not been very creative in offering these people other solutions,” Ms Rexhausen said. “Often people had to work in completely different fields or redo their education.”
Stance on Syria
It appears likely that the next government will take a stricter line on migration. Any push to return people to Syria could require co-operation with a new regime yet to fully take shape in Damascus.
The G7 countries, including Germany, offered on Thursday to work with an “inclusive” new government if it brings stability and respects human rights. There are suggestions that Hayat Tahrir Al Sham could be taken off US and European terrorist lists in exchange for such assurances. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has said Germany could “co-operate with the new Syria” once a direction becomes clear.
Europe has been told it must help to rebuild Syria if it expects people to return there, as bread prices rocket amid the turmoil. Its ability to do so could depend on the future of US "secondary sanctions” that currently prevent companies in third countries from trading with Syria.
“This whole debate about return of Syrians will continue, and this interest is certainly going to shape the policy of a new government [in Berlin] no matter what shape or form it takes,” Ms Rexhausen said.
Parties have edged to the right on refugee policy after right-wing forces “dominated the discourse and dragged everyone along, which mostly worked because there are other underlying issues such as the housing crisis and the recession that Germany is currently in”, she said. “There's just been a lack of political creativity to find solutions to these problems.”
