Live updates: Follow the latest on Syria
Europe was warned on Tuesday not to rush into sending refugees back to Syria, as it weighs up its options for arranging returns after the fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime.
Countries have begun to wind down decade-long offers of refuge to Syrians escaping their country's civil war, as several EU states announced new asylum claims would be put on pause. They will now consider their options for the next stage: sending Syrians home.
In Germany, home to the biggest Syrian diaspora in Europe, it is expected some of the country's 974,000 Syrian citizens will want to return home of their own accord. But others could be pushed towards the exit by having their refugee status stripped if officials believe there are lasting improvements in Damascus.
Austria's Interior Minister Gerhard Karner has asked officials to "prepare a plan for orderly repatriations and deportations" beginning next year. There is interest in Europe in working with Jordan and Turkey, the non-EU countries housing the most Syrians in exile, to arrange returns.
The EU on Tuesday called for caution, saying any moves to return Syrians should "always require individual assessments". EU states should "not forget the situation is very much changing in the field", said Stefan de Keersmaecker, spokesman for the European Commission spokesman, the executive arm of the EU.
Voluntary returns
Governments were told to help rebuild Syria if they want to people be returned. "It's still early to determine whether Syria is really safe, whether the infrastructure and the devastated economy in this country is ready to receive large numbers of people returning," said Ranim Ahmed of The Syria Campaign lobby group.
"There needs to be more effort, especially by the UN, who already exist in Syria," she told The National. "We didn't see any response from them so far, which is typical because we've seen how they failed Syrians during the [2023] earthquake, during all the catastrophes that happened during the past years."
A German conservative party leading polls before a February election suggested giving Syrians €1,000 ($1,060) to return home voluntarily on charter flights. Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the Christian Democratic Union called for a four-way "reconstruction and return" conference involving Jordan and Turkey in the spring.
Sweden upped its offer to 350,000 krona ($32,000) for "voluntary repatriation" before the fall of the Assad regime. Jimmie Akesson, leader of the far-right Sweden Democrats, said some people in the country appeared "happy about this development ... you should see it as a good opportunity to go home".
One German diplomat warned that things could "go the other way", with Syria's Christian or Alawite minorities deciding to leave the country. A spring survey by the UN's refugee agency (UNHCR) of Syrians living in Middle East countries found 57 per cent "hoped in principle" to return home one day but few expected to do so within the next year. The agency said "some are eager, while others are hesitant" following Mr Al Assad's downfall.
Council of Europe human rights commissioner Michael O'Flaherty reminded states they have legal duties not to expose people to risks of torture or degrading treatment if they are sent back to Syria. He said governments should also "consider how return might affect family and private life, especially for Syrians who have resided in host countries for extended periods".
Syrians in Europe celebrate fall of Al Assad - in pictures
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Supporters of the Syrian opposition celebrate the rebel takeover of Damascus, in Place de la Republique, Paris. EPA -
Syrian opposition flags are waved at Place de la Republique, Paris, after president Bashar Al Assad fled his country. EPA -
Celebrations among Syrian opposition supporters in Place de la Republique. EPA -
A Syrian opposition supporter with the opposition flag painted on her face in Paris. EPA -
A Syrian opposition supporter in Paris. AP -
Members of the Syrian community celebrate with opposition and German flags in Berlin. AFP -
Celebrations in Berlin. Syrian rebels took Damascus after a lightning-fast campaign. AFP -
Members of the Syrian community celebrate in Berlin. About 1.3 million people with Syrian roots live in Germany, most of whom arrived during Syria's civil war. AFP -
Syrian opposition flags at Oranienplatz in Berlin. Reuters -
A member of the Syrian community in Berlin. AFP -
Celebrations in Berlin. EPA -
Syrian community members celebrate in City Hall Square in Copenhagen, Denmark. Reuters -
Syrian opposition flags at the Copenhagen rally. AFP -
A rally to mark the fall of Bashar Al Assad, in Trafalgar Square, London. AP -
The London rally was called by the Syria Solidarity Campaign group. AFP -
The Syrian opposition flag is held aloft at Trafalgar Square. AFP -
A rally celebrating the end of Assad rule in Syria, in Sergels Square in Stockholm, Sweden. AFP -
Celebrations in Sergels Square. AFP -
Members of the Syrian community hold opposition flags in Gothenburg, Sweden. AFP
Many who arrived in Europe as refugees have since put down roots and taken a fast track to citizenship after excelling in language and integration classes. Of 200,000 people who took German nationality last year, more than 75,000 were Syrians, making them fully fledged citizens virtually bulletproof from any attempt to remove them. Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy said many Syrians had "been in this country for many years indeed ... their lives are here, their children were born here".
"Everyone should have the freedom to make this decision," Ms Ahmed said. "If refugees decide to go back, they deserve the right to return to their country ... for the rest who don't want to go back, I think it's their right as well."
Forced deportations
Europe was looking at ways to deport people to Syria even before the Assad regime fell, as it responds to populist anger over immigration and extremism. Denmark had declared some parts of Syria as safe, as had a German judge in denying an asylum claim.
But a lack of diplomatic relations with Syria was a blockage to following through on deportations, even for people rejected by asylum courts who lacked legal status in Europe. Italy appointed a new ambassador in Damascus in July with a view to a "more realistic" stance on Syria.
Germany turned to unnamed "regional partners", widely believed to include Qatar, to arrange a first deportation to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan in August despite a lack of formal representation, hinting it could do the same for Syria.
It will be one factor for European states to consider as they shape their stance on Syria's Hayat Tahrir Al Sham militants, amid suggestions of dropping terrorist designations for the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group. "The fact that HTS is a proscribed terrorist group does not prevent the Government from engaging with HTS in the future," UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's spokesman said on Tuesday.
A deportation offensive would likely focus on convicted criminals or people with little to no legal recognition. But even people already granted asylum in Europe could in theory have their status removed. This would require changes "of a significant nature", said Mr de Keersmaecker, the EU commission spokesman.
In Germany "that is only the case when the state of persecution has permanently changed and no longer exists, so that people returning no longer face any dangers," said Hans Vorlaender, a political scientist the head of an expert council on integration.
"If the situation in Syria does stabilise itself and people can live safely there, that will also influence the number of asylum applications and returns, because many will want to return to their home country. But it remains to be seen how the situation will develop."
Officials in Germany said a report on which asylum decisions are based will be updated "once the dust has settled" in Damascus. Austria, Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway announced similar moves to press pause on asylum.
"The European countries who wanted before to consider Syria as safe should now look at this new reality for Syria and wait until we know what's going to happen next in terms of the governance of Syria, and whether there will be a real political transition happening soon," Ms Ahmed said.
