Presidential allies from the centrist parties were feuding on Monday over run-off strategies as the French far-right fixed its sights on further progress after obtaining a record number of votes in the first round of the snap parliamentary election.
Its political adversaries hope to block a number of MPs from being elected in a second round this week but divisions have surfaced over standing down to allow leftist candidates a clear run against the radical right.
More than 10.5 million people on Sunday voted for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and its allies (33.2 per cent), ahead of a leftist coalition (28 per cent) and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp (20 per cent).
The shock defeat of the President's camp and the far-right's important gains have sent shock waves through the political establishment.
"This historic score is worrying," one of the President's centrist allies, Francois Bayrou, told TV channel TF1. "It's a threat that we have to avert in the coming days."
Thousands rallied in major cities in protest over the RN's rise, with some expressing fear over the party's attacks on French citizens of Muslim heritage.
"In my house, we are discussing whether we should go to Algeria," dual citizen Sabrina told radio France Bleu, speaking from the north-western city of Cherbourg.
"But the kids were born here, they are French. If we go there, we are nothing. If we stay here, we are nothing. This needs to stop. Enough."
Second round
France now enters a week of political horse-trading, with an eye on hundreds of constituencies that face a run-off between three candidates in the second round on Sunday.
"We will have an effect which will rather work against the RN," Brice Teinturier, deputy director of pollster Ipsos, told radio France Inter.
Mainstream political parties have historically struck deals for the third-placed candidate to step down if it favours the election of an MP not affiliated to the RN – long-shunned for its anti-Semitic roots and anti-democratic tendencies.
This is called forming a "Republican front" in the face of a party that is considered as incompatible with the values of the French republic.
MPs can be elected at the first round if they obtain more than half the ballots, as well as a number of votes at least equal to a quarter of the electorate.
More than half of the 76 politicians elected last Sunday were from the RN, including Marine Le Pen in the northern region of Pas-de-Calais.
In the first round, candidates who obtain at least 12.5 per cent of votes can stay in the race if no one wins outright. The likelihood of three-way battles increases when voter participation is high, as it was last Sunday at 66.71 per cent. Whoever wins the most votes is elected in the second round.
Candidates have until Tuesday to decide whether to continue the race or withdraw. Only then can more precise projections of what the new National Assembly may look be made.
Rough estimates currently evaluate the RN winning 210 to 260 seats, leftist coalition the New Popular Front (NFP) between 140 and 190, and Mr Macron's group 70 to 120.
So far a number of candidates allied to the President have already stepped down in favour of the left. They include Secretary of State Sabrina Agresti-Roubache and Minister Gelegate for Overseas Territories Marie Guevenoux.
But Mr Macron's camp sent mixed messages about whether France Unbowed (LFI), one of the main members of the NFP that was set up for this election, was included in the so-called Republican Front.
With vague wording about supporting Republican values, the President and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal did not reciprocate a call by LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon to systematically back candidates opposed to the RN.
This allowed space for politicians to send different messages.
Divisions over strategy
Former prime minister Edouard Philippe said he opposed both LFI and the RN but former National Assembly president Yael Braun-Pivet said voters must decide on a case-by-case basis, adding that those who had expressed anti-Semitic views must be shunned while others deserved support.
Ms Le Pen claimed voters were indifferent to such political manoeuvring.
"I am convinced that these instructions which are unnatural will not be followed by a large number of French people," she said. "I am convinced that we will have an absolute majority."
An absolute majority would imply her group will succeed in sending 289 MPs to Parliament. RN president Jordan Bardella has said he would accept the job of Prime Minister only if this threshold is achieved.
But party spokesman Sebastien Chenu on Monday said the RN could form a government with fewer than that figure.
"If there are enough [MPs], we will assume our responsibilities before the French," Mr Chenu told TV channel France 2.
Ms Le Pen's former partner and RN-vice president Louis Aliot was more cautious.
He said the party was working on names for a future government but that it was also waiting for more clarity.
"If there are only 250 [RN] MPs, meaning very little chance of getting texts voted, there is no point," Mr Aliot said.
"It has to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. There is a threshold where it [the country] will be governable," he said, although he had "no idea" what that threshold was.
Tamkeen's offering
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Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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