China has a proven a “gold standard” missile capability, demonstrating a major breakthrough in its air-to-air missile development, after Pakistan claimed the scalp of a western-made Indian warplane.
At least one of the French-supplied advanced Rafale fighters was destroyed by a hypersonic PL-15 missile fired by the Pakistan Air Force from a distance of more than 100km on Wednesday, it has been reported.
That heralds, aviation experts have told The National, a new era of aerial combat with dogfights in the past and long-range missile sniping the future.
Another key point, also witnessed in the Russian-Ukraine war, is that electronic warfare is becoming vital to battlefield survival, with the Indian aircraft not apparently equipped with a key radar jammer unlike British and US jets.
China has invested heavily in what experts called “a gold standard” Active Electronically Scanned Array (Aesa) radar capability, which allows it to miniaturise the system and put it inside a 200kg missile. By comparison Raytheon's Phantomstrike missile is miniaturised at 60kg.
The weapons system on the Chinese fighter is a new factor in the significant escalation between the two nuclear-armed countries. Fighting has erupted after a terrorist attack in disputed Kashmir that India says was carried out by Pakistani-backed militants. Pakistan denies supporting the group that claimed responsibility.
China firsts
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told parliament on Wednesday that three Indian Rafales had been shot down by the air force’s J-10C jet, supplied by China. American and French intelligence sources have subsequently confirmed the downing of at least one, possibly two, Rafale − the first time the aircraft has been lost in combat.
This is also the first time such Chinese equipment has been tested in battle against western opponents and its success will resonate significantly.
Experts believe that the development proves that Chinese military technology is close to catching up with the West, and furthermore it has the equipment in large quantities.
“We've now seen Chinese weapons in action and the big question mark over the Chinese military build-up has been is their stuff actually any good?” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye website. “This suggests that it is.”
Missile prowess
Key to Pakistan’s success was the PL-15E long range missile used in its combat debut to down the Rafale on India’s side of the border.
Once fired the PL-15E is blasted by a rocket booster to hypersonic speed of Mach 5 (6,200kph) then guided onto target by the J-10C fighter’s radar before, in the closing stages, switching to its own Aesa radar.
It can then hone in with accuracy with a second burst of speed being injected about 10km from target making it extremely difficult to evade.
Radar jammers
However, if the Rafales had been fitted with Aesa, then this would likely have picked up the threat from some distance.
An Aesa radar would have potentially allowed the Rafale to jam the Pakistan fighter and the missile in its closing stages as it allows the jet to create of beam of focused electronic noise.
“It makes it really quick to neutralise a threat from one of these missiles,” said Mr Ripley.
However, even if equipped with Aesa it is questionable whether the Rafale could have dodged the missile, said a leading defence company aviation expert.
While the radar “would help” its defences, missiles such as the PL-15E are so potent that “once you've been locked on by one it's very difficult to get away from the kill zone because those missiles are so quick,” he added.
Furthermore, if the missile detects jamming then it has the ability to quickly jump to another frequency.
French blushes
What is certain is that the Rafale wreckage, found near the Indian city of Bathinda, will be “pored over by the French because they really will want to know what happened,” said Paul Beaver, a military aviation expert.
Further humiliation for the Indians, as well as the French, was that its air force operates a wing of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the warplane’s most advanced version.
The aviation company source called it a “big, big blow to the French” because Rafale had been “touted as a cheap alternative” to the RAF Typhoon and American fighters.
“While pilot training could be part of the problem if you don't have the best equipment, then you are at a disadvantage,” he added.
There is a suggestion that the shoot-downs could be attributed to pilot error although it also proves Pakistan’s aerial combat skills.
“This demonstrates that the Pakistan Air Force is as effective as everyone always thinks it is. It's smaller than India’s but makes up for it in training and motivation,” Mr Beaver said.
If the PL-15E hit was confirmed this would be “a very public demonstration of the prowess of Chinese military aerospace technologies”, added Fabian Hoffmann, a missile specialist at the Centre for European Policy Analysis.
Distant dogfights
The aerial battle also marks the start of a new era of aerial warfare in which the incident showed the “very interesting development in long range missile snipers,” said Mr Ripley.
“Long range air-to-air combat is now a big trend in aerial warfare,” he added. “On the back of this lots of the air forces will be busy trying to revamp their electronic warfare effectiveness trying to neutralise these missiles. It’s a big growth area.”
