Iran said it plans to hold joint naval drills with Russia on Thursday, raising the risk of an unintended escalation in the region amid a US military build-up intended to put pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme, according to experts who spoke to The National.
The drills aim to “enhance security and sustainable maritime interactions in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean” and will be hosted in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran’s Fars news agency reported on Wednesday, quoting an Iranian navy commander.
Iran’s state news agency Irna quoted a Russian presidential official as saying that Chinese warships were also headed to the region to take part in the three countries’ annual Maritime Security Belt exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. It is not known if Chinese ships will be involved in Thursday’s exercises.
On Tuesday, Iran said it was closing parts of the strait for a few hours due to “security precautions” as its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Cops conducted military drills in the strategically important waterway.
The reported closure coincided with a second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva – a renewed effort to reach a nuclear deal after US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Tehran.
While Iran’s joint naval exercises with friendly nations could deter a US attack, they also increase the chance of miscalculation, said Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy warship captain who twice served as a carrier group’s anti-submarine commander in the Gulf.
“Miscalculation is really key here because if America fires a bunch of Tomahawk cruise missiles towards Iran, and a Chinese or Russian destroyer thinks ‘that's coming for us’ and fires, legitimately, in self-defence, you've created a war now by mistake,” Mr Sharpe told The National.
He said the Iranians constantly try to “provoke a reaction” by rushing at ships “to test your resolve”. “So the risk of miscalculation in that area is not new, but inject a bunch of other ships, and there’s no question it has gone up substantially.”
Their presence could also impede US operations by helping Iran track down the US carrier groups – with a second arriving in the area next week – and heightening the risk of conflict.
“This comes back to the issue of the risk of miscalculation, because if you misidentify something, in that you think it’s an Iranian drone, and actually it's a Chinese one, what happens next?” Mr Sharpe said. “So this exercise is a smart move by Iran – it complicates the picture and it's deeply annoying for the US fleet.”
Former military intelligence officer Lynette Nusbacher said it was “all theatre” that was “sending a signal to an audience of one, and that is Donald Trump”.
“Russia and Iran jointly exercising is a way to suggest that Putin is gripping his own sphere of influence and that the United States ought to get back in its box, back to the Western Hemisphere.” Ms Nusbacher said the “Russians are not going to get involved in World War Three on behalf of the Iranians”.
Keir Giles, Russian expert at the Chatham House think tank, agreed, saying he would be “very surprised if Russia sought to cause difficulties when the United States is prosecuting military operations against Iran”.
A spokeswoman for the Iranian government said on Wednesday that “negotiations and defensive preparedness are two integrated and simultaneous strategies to protect the country’s interests and maintain national security”.
Iran's “forces are on full alert, and the necessary arrangements have been made in accordance with security requirements”, she said.
The commander of the Iranian navy, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, said the presence of military vessels from outside the region was “unjustifiable”. He warned against any foreign show of force, saying “they should know that the Iranian people will confront them with greater strength”.
US website Axios reported on Wednesday that the Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realise. “It could begin very soon,” it said, quoting sources.
A US military operation in Iran would probably be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like a full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, according to the sources.
They said it would probably be a joint US-Israeli campaign that is much broader in scope – and more existential for the regime – than the Israeli-led 12-day war in June last year, which the US eventually joined by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites.
“Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency,” it added.
The possibility of reaching a deal to avert war remains uncertain, given the difference between what the US is demanding and what Iran says it is willing to concede. US Vice President JD Vance said progress was made in Tuesday's talks, but that “certain red lines” remain.
He said the Iranians “are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through” the red lines set by Mr Trump. These include zero nuclear enrichment, giving up its ballistic missile programme, and an end to its support for regional armed groups.
But Mr Vance said the negotiation “in some ways … went well” and that the Iranians had agreed to meet again.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a comprehensive report on the talks to the cabinet on Wednesday, according to Iranian media.
Mr Araghchi said on Tuesday that the talks yielded a consensus on “general guiding principles” for a potential nuclear deal. He said the two sides would begin drafting texts of a possible nuclear deal before reconvening.
“The atmosphere was more constructive in this round of negotiations,” said the Iranian minister. “Both sides still have viewpoints that will take time to converge, but now we have a set of guiding principles according to which we are moving forward.”
