Lebanon expects food security problems 'within a month or two'

'We have a problem,' top official tells The National as Ukraine war and inflation begin to bite

Severe food shortages could hit Lebanon within weeks, a leading politician has said. Reuters

Lebanon will be facing food shortages in as little as a month if the Ukraine crisis continues, a high-ranking Lebanese official said on Friday.

Lebanon’s heavy reliance on imported food, particularly sunflower oil and wheat from Ukraine, has jeopardised food security.

The war could lead to prices soaring even higher in Lebanon, where the costs of food increased by 2,076 per cent between 2018 and 2021.

“The production season in Ukraine is destroyed," Dany Gedeon, director general of Lebanon’s Industry Ministry, told The National. "We’ll be facing real food security problems within a month or two in Lebanon and in the rest of the world.”

Customs figures show that in 2020, Lebanon imported 81 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and 15 per cent from Russia. The two countries were also Lebanon’s main suppliers of sunflower seed oil.

Lebanon has been totally irresponsible towards its food security for the past 30 years

Riad Saade,
Lebanese Centre of Agricultural Research and Studies director

Imported wheat is transformed locally to produce bags of round, flat bread. Lebanon only produces small amounts of durum wheat, which cannot be used for this kind of “Arabic” bread, experts say.

The Lebanese are hugely reliant on bread for their daily calorie intake. Bakers previously told The National that the country’s protracted economic crisis had increased the local population’s purchases of bread. Bread prices have remained relatively cheap thanks to subsidies from Lebanon’s cash-strapped central bank.

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  This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows destroyed and burning warehouse buildings in Stoyanka, Ukraine, in the western Kyiv region, during the Russian invasion. AP

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  Children shelter in a metro station in Kharkiv. Moscow said on March 10, 2022, that it will open daily humanitarian corridors to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Ukraine to reach Russian territory, despite Kyiv insisting that no evacuation routes should lead to Russia. AFP

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  Russian President Vladimir Putin during a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow. The meeting focuses on minimising the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, prompting the country's president to declare martial law and triggering a series of severe economic sanctions imposed by western countries. EPA

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  Rescuers work among remains of buildings damaged by an air strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, as Russia's attack on the country continues. Reuters

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  Members of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr and Olena, listen to a priest at their wedding in Ukraine. Reuters

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  People fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine warm up by a fire near the train station in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters

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  Russian forces rolled their armoured vehicles up to the northeastern edge of Kyiv, edging closer in their attempts to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP

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  A woman covers herself with a blanket near a damaged fire truck after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP Photo

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  A Ukrainian soldier hides from a helicopter air strike near Demydiv, Ukraine. Reuters

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  Ukrainian soldiers walk past a monument of the city founder Duke de Richelieu, covered with sand bags for protection, in Odessa, Ukraine. Reuters

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  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. EPA

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  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in talks with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during a tripartite meeting chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Antalya, Turkey. AP

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  Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova speaks to the media as the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey hold talks in Antalya, 15 days after Russia launched a military invasion on Ukraine. AFP

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  A Ukrainian serviceman says goodbye to his girlfriend before departing in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP

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  Valerii Sushkevych, president of the Ukraine National Paralympic Committee, and the Ukraine delegation raise their fists and pose with a banner at the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. Reuters

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  A member of the Ukrainian team cries during a moment of silence at the Zhangjiakou athletes village during the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. AFP

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  Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, right, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela, second left, in Antalya, Turkey. AFP

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  A man is supported after crossing the Irpin river while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP

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  People are helped out of a damaged children's hospital following a Russian air strike in the southeastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine. AFP

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  A man rides a bicycle in front of an apartment building that was damaged by shelling in Mariupol. AP

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  A woman carries two babies after arriving at a triage point in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP

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  A man hugs an elderly woman after crossing a damaged bridge as they flee from the frontline town of Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. EPA

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  Local residents cook at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA

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  Ukrainian men chop wood at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA

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  A member of the Territorial Defence Forces learns how to use a Javelin missile during a training session in Kyiv. EPA

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  Members of the Territorial Defence Forces learn how to give first aid during the training session. EPA

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  A woman rescued from the outskirts of Kyiv holds a plate of food after arriving at a triage point in the Ukrainian capital. AP

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  A woman cries after arriving at the triage point in Kyiv. AP

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  Civilian vehicles drive past a destroyed Russian tank as they leave Irpin. AP

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  Ukrainian servicemen stand in a foxhole in Irpin. AP

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  People gather on a platform to board a train leaving Odesa after the US said Russian troops are making preparations to attack the city. AFP

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  A Ukrainian woman looks for food in a bin in Odesa's city centre. AFP

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  Ukrainian servicemen look towards Russian positions outside the city of Brovary, east of Kyiv. AFP

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  A man walks past a shelled house at the village of Velyka Dymerka, east of Kyiv. AFP

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  A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a check point in the vilage of Velyka Dymerka east of Kyiv. AFP

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  A Ukrainian woman plays with her child in a temporary refugee shelter in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

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  A woman waits outside a maternity and children's hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP

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  A pregnant woman leaves the hospital after she was wounded when it was bombed. AP

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  A woman waits outside the damaged hospital in Mariupol. AP

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  A man wounded by shelling in Mariupol. AP

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  A car burns after the destruction of the children's hospital in Mariupol. Reuters

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  A mortuary worker wheels a stretcher used to move dead bodies before they are buried on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP

But further price rises on food could lead to social unrest, say analysts. “The Ukraine invasion is an additional disaster,” said one Lebanese diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous.

Mr Gedeon said Lebanese businesses were searching for alternative sources of wheat. “We’ll see if it will be possible,” he said.

The alarmism expressed by Lebanese officials is to be expected, said Riad Saade, director of the Lebanese Centre of Agricultural Research and Studies. “Prices of wheat are skyrocketing around the world,” he said.

Lebanon is particularly vulnerable to sudden market shocks because of its low stocks of wheat. They can last for only a month and a half since a massive blast at Beirut’s port in August 2020 destroyed the country’s giant grain silos.

“Lebanon has been totally irresponsible towards its food security for the past 30 years,” said Mr Saade. “They were trading with money they did not have. Now that they have reached bankruptcy, they are starting to realise how terrible it is to not have a food security policy.”

Mr Saade was referring to the collapse of Lebanon’s economy, which started in 2019, causing rapid inflation and unprecedented poverty.

'Exceptional measures'

Lebanon is also struggling to find enough sugar. Its main supplier, Algeria, stopped exporting sugar and other products to the world in 2020 after the coronavirus outbreak.

Lebanese customs figures show about a quarter of its sugar imports came from Algeria in 2020. More recent figures are unavailable because the customs website stopped working in August 2021 after a corruption scandal.

Local media reported this week that Prime Minister Najib Mikati asked Algeria’s Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra whether Algeria could start re-exporting sugar to Lebanon. There were no reports of any response from the Algerians.

Lebanese businessmen are seeking to buy sugar from Brazil, Peru and Cuba, Mr Gedeon said. “We have a problem,” he said.

Lebanon’s Industry Minister George Boujikian gave a warning on Thursday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would “inevitably lead to an increase in demand in view of the shortage of goods and the possibility of a dangerous inflation in prices".

Mr Boujikian made those comments on the same day that he decided to restrict Lebanese food exports. In a letter addressed to the higher customs council, he said he was taking “exceptional measures to protect food security and secure necessary stocks for the Lebanese people”.

Milled wheat in the southern Lebanese town of Marjayoun. AFP

Consequently, food exports are now subject to a licence from the Industry Ministry.

“It is essential to stop exports of all foodstuffs that are necessary for people’s every day consumption, such as wheat and oils,” Mr Gedeon said.

He said that he expected the ministry to halt exports of milk-based products, including cheese and labne, a local strained yoghurt.

Among Lebanon’s top performing products is olive oil, of which the small Mediterranean country exported about 7,000 tonnes in 2020.

“We’ll see if [olive oil] production is enough to continue exports, otherwise we’ll stop,” said Mr Gedeon.