Rebel commander Abu Jamal Nuqrush was sheltering in a makeshift bunker in the besieged Damascus suburb of Daraya six years ago when a Russian missile pierced through the main shaft.
“We survived by a whisker. The Russian bombing was far more precise than the regime’s,” he says.
By August 2016, when Abu Jamal and his comrades surrendered to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad in a Russian-supervised deal, around 1,000 of Daraya’s 1,700 defenders had been killed.
Outgunned and outnumbered, they withstood the siege for four years, with Russia actively bombing Daraya for months before forcing the surrender.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its third week, former anti-Assad commanders say their armed struggle offers positive lessons for Ukrainian forces that soon could be encircled in the major cities of the country.
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This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows destroyed and burning warehouse buildings in Stoyanka, Ukraine, in the western Kyiv region, during the Russian invasion. AP -
Children shelter in a metro station in Kharkiv. Moscow said on March 10, 2022, that it will open daily humanitarian corridors to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Ukraine to reach Russian territory, despite Kyiv insisting that no evacuation routes should lead to Russia. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow. The meeting focuses on minimising the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, prompting the country's president to declare martial law and triggering a series of severe economic sanctions imposed by western countries. EPA -
Rescuers work among remains of buildings damaged by an air strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, as Russia's attack on the country continues. Reuters -
Members of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr and Olena, listen to a priest at their wedding in Ukraine. Reuters -
People fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine warm up by a fire near the train station in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian forces rolled their armoured vehicles up to the northeastern edge of Kyiv, edging closer in their attempts to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP -
A woman covers herself with a blanket near a damaged fire truck after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian soldier hides from a helicopter air strike near Demydiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldiers walk past a monument of the city founder Duke de Richelieu, covered with sand bags for protection, in Odessa, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. EPA -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in talks with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during a tripartite meeting chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Antalya, Turkey. AP -
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova speaks to the media as the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey hold talks in Antalya, 15 days after Russia launched a military invasion on Ukraine. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman says goodbye to his girlfriend before departing in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP -
Valerii Sushkevych, president of the Ukraine National Paralympic Committee, and the Ukraine delegation raise their fists and pose with a banner at the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. Reuters -
A member of the Ukrainian team cries during a moment of silence at the Zhangjiakou athletes village during the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. AFP -
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, right, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela, second left, in Antalya, Turkey. AFP -
A man is supported after crossing the Irpin river while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP -
People are helped out of a damaged children's hospital following a Russian air strike in the southeastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine. AFP -
A man rides a bicycle in front of an apartment building that was damaged by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A woman carries two babies after arriving at a triage point in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A man hugs an elderly woman after crossing a damaged bridge as they flee from the frontline town of Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. EPA -
Local residents cook at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
Ukrainian men chop wood at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
A member of the Territorial Defence Forces learns how to use a Javelin missile during a training session in Kyiv. EPA -
Members of the Territorial Defence Forces learn how to give first aid during the training session. EPA -
A woman rescued from the outskirts of Kyiv holds a plate of food after arriving at a triage point in the Ukrainian capital. AP -
A woman cries after arriving at the triage point in Kyiv. AP -
Civilian vehicles drive past a destroyed Russian tank as they leave Irpin. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen stand in a foxhole in Irpin. AP -
People gather on a platform to board a train leaving Odesa after the US said Russian troops are making preparations to attack the city. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman looks for food in a bin in Odesa's city centre. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen look towards Russian positions outside the city of Brovary, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A man walks past a shelled house at the village of Velyka Dymerka, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a check point in the vilage of Velyka Dymerka east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman plays with her child in a temporary refugee shelter in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters -
A woman waits outside a maternity and children's hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP -
A pregnant woman leaves the hospital after she was wounded when it was bombed. AP -
A woman waits outside the damaged hospital in Mariupol. AP -
A man wounded by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A car burns after the destruction of the children's hospital in Mariupol. Reuters -
A mortuary worker wheels a stretcher used to move dead bodies before they are buried on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP
Besides weapons and tactics, they say maintaining a will to resist and support of the population will be crucial to withstand the onslaught as Russia intensifies its bombing of populated areas.
Significant destruction of residential districts has been reported around Kyiv, in Kharkiv, and in Mariupol, where Russia struck a maternity hospital this week.
Rebels commanders who fought against Russian-backed forces in Syria expect that once evacuations from Ukrainian cities have ended, Russia would hit civilian targets more intensely.
More civilian casualties prompts internal pressure on defending forces and could undermine unity among Ukranians, they say, citing thermobaric (vacuum) bombs and missiles that terrorised rebel areas of Syria.
This type of weapon causes a huge fireball and blast wave that bring down buildings.
Postponing the inevitable
None of the veterans of the Syrian rebellion against five decades of Assad family rule expect Russia to fail in overrunning Ukraine.
But the Ukrainian military and its auxiliaries can delay a Russian sweep in ways that would make it costly for President Vladimir Putin, they say.
Daraya’s defenders surrendered after what Abu Jamal says was a Russian strike on the only remaining hospital in the suburb, a makeshift facility.
The regime had scorched Daraya’s farmland, fuel ran out and food supplies reached critical levels. Under the surrender deal, the surviving Daraya rebels were bused to a Turkish sphere of Influence in northern Syria.
former Syrian rebel commander
Abu Jamal says Ukrainian defenders are in a much stronger position to prepare for urban warfare.
He says in Ukraine they have access to far superior weaponry, such as anti-aircraft guns and advanced anti-tank weapons, compared with the rocket-propelled grenades with which Daraya defenders fended off T-72 tank incursions.
“Our weapons were simple,” said Abu Jamal by phone from Turkey. “If the Ukrainians have the resolve and the engineering capabilities they will hold out for long.”
Moscow made its direct military intervention in Syria in late 2015, enabling the regime to capture large parts of territory it had lost.
Russia left most of the ground attacks to its allies as it pummelled besieged rebel areas containing hundreds of thousands of civilians with artillery, air strikes and ground rockets, killing thousands of civilians.
Unconfirmed reports have been circulating of recruitment of pro-regime militia to fight on Russia’s behalf in Ukraine.
Guessing game
Abdelbasset Taweel, an officer who defected from the regime’s military and joined the rebels, says regardless of who attempts to storm Kyiv, urban warfare is a “different ballgame”.
Mr Taweel was among Syrian regime troops that attacked parts of Beirut during the Lebanese civil war from 1975 to 1990.
He said an armoured column in an urban setting would be held off from advancing by a few fighters equipped with anti-tank weapons and heavy machine guns.
“In some ways the defender who knows the urban terrain has the advantage,” he says.
Abu Haidar, another rebel officer who gave his nom de guerre described overrunning a regime roadblock in the northern governorate of Idlib several years ago then coming under fire from the direction of a collection of houses.
“A single KPC fired at us, killing seven in my group,” he says, referring to a type of Russian machinegun.
“It felt like an eternity trying to determine where the bullets were coming from,” he says.
Eventually the rebels realised a lone pro-regime shooter, who was a woman, was firing at them from the perimeter of her home.
Most of the former rebels interviewed by The National had dealt with the Russian military when they were in the regime's army. They joined a rebellion whose ranks comprised many with no military experience.
Former US president Barack Obama dismissed the rebels in 2014 as “former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth”, who stood no chance, even if Washington had made a full-fledged effort to arm them.
Cohesion
Ibrahim, another former Syrian commander, says the Syrian armed struggle was fatally undermined from within, pointing out societal fissures that broke into the open in the past decade.
Among them were religious ideology, clan rivalries and divisions between city dwellers and rural areas, and parts of the merchant classes that determined its interest still lays with the regime, he says.
He compared the drones and other weapons being supplied to the Ukrainian military, with Western nations having balked at supporting the often divided rebels, their cause undermined by the ascendency of militants
“The Ukrainian army has a far more solid base among the population,” says Ibrahim, who wanted to be identified only by his first name because he resides in an Arab country on the understanding that he does not discuss Syria publicly.
“We were fighting two enemies: the regime and the Islamists. The Ukrainians do not have this problem,” he says.
“They are cohesive and already seems to have inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy,” he says referring to US estimates of 3,500 to 6,000 Russians killed so far in Ukraine, compared with 498 deaths announced by the Russian military.
“Their loss in Afghanistan will prove light in comparison.”
The Russian military invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and withdrew in 1989 after losing a war of attrition.
It cost the lives of 15,000 Russian soldiers and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
