Even in defeat, Syrian rebels say their armed struggle offers hope for Ukraine

Former anti-Assad commanders say Ukrainian military in envious position compared with the disadvantages they faced against Russia

A Pleiades Satellite image from September 20, 2015, shows Russian fighter jets and helicopters at a military base in the government-controlled coastal Syrian city of Latakia. Syria said on September 22, 2015 it had received sophisticated new arms from Russia, including warplanes, and used them against rebels, as signs grew of a major shift in the country's four-year conflict. AFP

Deserted streets and damaged buildings in the central Syrian town of Talbisseh in Homs province, September 30, 2015. Russia confirmed on September 30 that it carried out its first air strike in Syria, near the city of Homs, marking the formal start of Moscow's military intervention. AFP

A video grab from October 1, 2015 shows an image taken from the Russian Defence Ministry's official website, purporting to show an air strike in Syria. President Vladimir Putin on October 1 dismissed claims that Russian air strikes had killed civilians in Syria as 'information warfare' but said Moscow would look into those reports. AFP

A Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber takes off from the Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian province of Latakia, October 3, 2015. AFP

A Russian pilot leaving his Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack aircraft at Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian province of Latakia. AFP

Members of the Sunni Committee of Muslim Scholars outside the Russian embassy in the capital Beirut during a protest on October 14, 2015 against Russia's intervention in Syria . AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, with his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al Assad upon the latter's for a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on October 20, 2015. AFP

Russia deployed its S-400 air defence system in Syria, the Russian defence ministry said on November 26, 2015, with the units covering the area around its airbase in coastal Latakia. AFP

About 30,000 Syrians were at the Turkish border after fleeing a Russia-backed regime offensive on the northern region of Aleppo, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on February 8, 2016, as his country faced pressure to open its border. AFP

Russian soldiers on guard as a Russian military convoy passes through a small Syrian village near the city of Hama on May 4, 2016. AFP

Fires after air strikes on the besieged rebel-held town of Daraya, near the capital Damascus, on August 16, 2016. AFP

A member of the White Helmets, a Syrian civil defence volunteer unit, on the rubble of destroyed buildings during a rescue operation in Aleppo after a government forces air strike on the rebel-held neighbourhood of Bustan Al Basha, on October 4, 2016. AFP

Syrian government troops on guard as a bus drives by with people from the evacuated town of Daraya outside the capital Damascus on August 26, 2016. The move was part of a deal agreed between the government and opposition fighters after a four-year army siege. AFP

Members of the UN Security Council meet on December 31, 2016, at the UN headquarters in New York, after unanimously approving a resolution supporting a Russian-Turkish peace initiative for Syria. AFP

Rebel commander Abu Jamal Nuqrush was sheltering in a makeshift bunker in the besieged Damascus suburb of Daraya six years ago when a Russian missile pierced through the main shaft.

“We survived by a whisker. The Russian bombing was far more precise than the regime’s,” he says.

By August 2016, when Abu Jamal and his comrades surrendered to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad in a Russian-supervised deal, around 1,000 of Daraya’s 1,700 defenders had been killed.

Outgunned and outnumbered, they withstood the siege for four years, with Russia actively bombing Daraya for months before forcing the surrender.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its third week, former anti-Assad commanders say their armed struggle offers positive lessons for Ukrainian forces that soon could be encircled in the major cities of the country.

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows destroyed and burning warehouse buildings in Stoyanka, Ukraine, in the western Kyiv region, during the Russian invasion. AP

Children shelter in a metro station in Kharkiv. Moscow said on March 10, 2022, that it will open daily humanitarian corridors to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Ukraine to reach Russian territory, despite Kyiv insisting that no evacuation routes should lead to Russia. AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow. The meeting focuses on minimising the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, prompting the country's president to declare martial law and triggering a series of severe economic sanctions imposed by western countries. EPA

Rescuers work among remains of buildings damaged by an air strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, as Russia's attack on the country continues. Reuters

Members of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr and Olena, listen to a priest at their wedding in Ukraine. Reuters

People fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine warm up by a fire near the train station in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters

Russian forces rolled their armoured vehicles up to the northeastern edge of Kyiv, edging closer in their attempts to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP

A woman covers herself with a blanket near a damaged fire truck after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP Photo

A Ukrainian soldier hides from a helicopter air strike near Demydiv, Ukraine. Reuters

Ukrainian soldiers walk past a monument of the city founder Duke de Richelieu, covered with sand bags for protection, in Odessa, Ukraine. Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. EPA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in talks with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during a tripartite meeting chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Antalya, Turkey. AP

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova speaks to the media as the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey hold talks in Antalya, 15 days after Russia launched a military invasion on Ukraine. AFP

A Ukrainian serviceman says goodbye to his girlfriend before departing in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP

Valerii Sushkevych, president of the Ukraine National Paralympic Committee, and the Ukraine delegation raise their fists and pose with a banner at the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. Reuters

A member of the Ukrainian team cries during a moment of silence at the Zhangjiakou athletes village during the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. AFP

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, right, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela, second left, in Antalya, Turkey. AFP

A man is supported after crossing the Irpin river while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP

People are helped out of a damaged children's hospital following a Russian air strike in the southeastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine. AFP

A man rides a bicycle in front of an apartment building that was damaged by shelling in Mariupol. AP

A woman carries two babies after arriving at a triage point in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP

A man hugs an elderly woman after crossing a damaged bridge as they flee from the frontline town of Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. EPA

Local residents cook at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA

Ukrainian men chop wood at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA

A member of the Territorial Defence Forces learns how to use a Javelin missile during a training session in Kyiv. EPA

Members of the Territorial Defence Forces learn how to give first aid during the training session. EPA

A woman rescued from the outskirts of Kyiv holds a plate of food after arriving at a triage point in the Ukrainian capital. AP

A woman cries after arriving at the triage point in Kyiv. AP

Civilian vehicles drive past a destroyed Russian tank as they leave Irpin. AP

Ukrainian servicemen stand in a foxhole in Irpin. AP

People gather on a platform to board a train leaving Odesa after the US said Russian troops are making preparations to attack the city. AFP

A Ukrainian woman looks for food in a bin in Odesa's city centre. AFP

Ukrainian servicemen look towards Russian positions outside the city of Brovary, east of Kyiv. AFP

A man walks past a shelled house at the village of Velyka Dymerka, east of Kyiv. AFP

A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a check point in the vilage of Velyka Dymerka east of Kyiv. AFP

A Ukrainian woman plays with her child in a temporary refugee shelter in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

A woman waits outside a maternity and children's hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP

A pregnant woman leaves the hospital after she was wounded when it was bombed. AP

A woman waits outside the damaged hospital in Mariupol. AP

A man wounded by shelling in Mariupol. AP

A car burns after the destruction of the children's hospital in Mariupol. Reuters

A mortuary worker wheels a stretcher used to move dead bodies before they are buried on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP

Besides weapons and tactics, they say maintaining a will to resist and support of the population will be crucial to withstand the onslaught as Russia intensifies its bombing of populated areas.

Significant destruction of residential districts has been reported around Kyiv, in Kharkiv, and in Mariupol, where Russia struck a maternity hospital this week.

Rebels commanders who fought against Russian-backed forces in Syria expect that once evacuations from Ukrainian cities have ended, Russia would hit civilian targets more intensely.

More civilian casualties prompts internal pressure on defending forces and could undermine unity among Ukranians, they say, citing thermobaric (vacuum) bombs and missiles that terrorised rebel areas of Syria.

This type of weapon causes a huge fireball and blast wave that bring down buildings.

Postponing the inevitable

None of the veterans of the Syrian rebellion against five decades of Assad family rule expect Russia to fail in overrunning Ukraine.

But the Ukrainian military and its auxiliaries can delay a Russian sweep in ways that would make it costly for President Vladimir Putin, they say.

Daraya’s defenders surrendered after what Abu Jamal says was a Russian strike on the only remaining hospital in the suburb, a makeshift facility.

The regime had scorched Daraya’s farmland, fuel ran out and food supplies reached critical levels. Under the surrender deal, the surviving Daraya rebels were bused to a Turkish sphere of Influence in northern Syria.

If the Ukrainians have the resolve and the engineering capabilities they will hold out for long

Abu Jamal,
former Syrian rebel commander

Abu Jamal says Ukrainian defenders are in a much stronger position to prepare for urban warfare.

He says in Ukraine they have access to far superior weaponry, such as anti-aircraft guns and advanced anti-tank weapons, compared with the rocket-propelled grenades with which Daraya defenders fended off T-72 tank incursions.

“Our weapons were simple,” said Abu Jamal by phone from Turkey. “If the Ukrainians have the resolve and the engineering capabilities they will hold out for long.”

Moscow made its direct military intervention in Syria in late 2015, enabling the regime to capture large parts of territory it had lost.

Russia left most of the ground attacks to its allies as it pummelled besieged rebel areas containing hundreds of thousands of civilians with artillery, air strikes and ground rockets, killing thousands of civilians.

Unconfirmed reports have been circulating of recruitment of pro-regime militia to fight on Russia’s behalf in Ukraine.

Guessing game

People evacuate the town of Daraya, outside the capital Damascus, by bus on August 26, 2016. AFP

Abdelbasset Taweel, an officer who defected from the regime’s military and joined the rebels, says regardless of who attempts to storm Kyiv, urban warfare is a “different ballgame”.

Mr Taweel was among Syrian regime troops that attacked parts of Beirut during the Lebanese civil war from 1975 to 1990.

He said an armoured column in an urban setting would be held off from advancing by a few fighters equipped with anti-tank weapons and heavy machine guns.

“In some ways the defender who knows the urban terrain has the advantage,” he says.

Abu Haidar, another rebel officer who gave his nom de guerre described overrunning a regime roadblock in the northern governorate of Idlib several years ago then coming under fire from the direction of a collection of houses.

“A single KPC fired at us, killing seven in my group,” he says, referring to a type of Russian machinegun.

“It felt like an eternity trying to determine where the bullets were coming from,” he says.

Eventually the rebels realised a lone pro-regime shooter, who was a woman, was firing at them from the perimeter of her home.

Most of the former rebels interviewed by The National had dealt with the Russian military when they were in the regime's army. They joined a rebellion whose ranks comprised many with no military experience.

Former US president Barack Obama dismissed the rebels in 2014 as “former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth”, who stood no chance, even if Washington had made a full-fledged effort to arm them.

Cohesion

Ibrahim, another former Syrian commander, says the Syrian armed struggle was fatally undermined from within, pointing out societal fissures that broke into the open in the past decade.

Among them were religious ideology, clan rivalries and divisions between city dwellers and rural areas, and parts of the merchant classes that determined its interest still lays with the regime, he says.

He compared the drones and other weapons being supplied to the Ukrainian military, with Western nations having balked at supporting the often divided rebels, their cause undermined by the ascendency of militants

“The Ukrainian army has a far more solid base among the population,” says Ibrahim, who wanted to be identified only by his first name because he resides in an Arab country on the understanding that he does not discuss Syria publicly.

“We were fighting two enemies: the regime and the Islamists. The Ukrainians do not have this problem,” he says.

“They are cohesive and already seems to have inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy,” he says referring to US estimates of 3,500 to 6,000 Russians killed so far in Ukraine, compared with 498 deaths announced by the Russian military.

“Their loss in Afghanistan will prove light in comparison.”

The Russian military invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and withdrew in 1989 after losing a war of attrition.

It cost the lives of 15,000 Russian soldiers and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.