Punxsutawney Phil found fame thanks to the 1993 film Groundhog Day. The groundhog is once more ready on February 2 to emerge from his burrow in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania to predict the weather.
According to a tradition that dates back beyond 1887, if Phil sees his shadow on the ground and returns to his hole, that means six more weeks of winter and freezing cold weather. If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, it indicates an early spring.
The observation of animals, along with other natural markers to predict the weather is a millennia-old practice that has been followed across many different cultures and countries. None more so than in the ancient Arab world.
Predicting the weather by the stars
The nomadic existence of ancient Bedouins relied on following the seasonal rainfall and available pastureland to keep their herds of goats and camels fed and watered. By finding water essential to their survival, they developed an acute sense of interpreting natural signs in the barren landscape, which included listening to wind patterns, mapping constellations and watching animal behaviour.
Arabs deferred to a process called Anwa to map the seasons and predict seasonal change, as well as plan for the coming weather. Anwa is the name they gave to the groups of stars and constellations which they came to associate with certain times of the year. The appearance and disappearance of these constellations as the world rotated allowed them to predict the seasons and they would link the appearance of the star Suhail with the end of the summer and the beginning of autumn.
“Suhail, known in Latin and English as Canopus, is the second-brightest star in the night sky," says Nidhal Guessoum, professor of physics, astronomy and space science at the UAE's best universities: UAE's best universities: American University of Sharjah.
"Arabs and Bedouins knew stars well, as they helped them find their way in the desert and measure time by the hour by watching the stars moving east to west continuously, or from week to week by the constellations shifting gradually in the sky."
“Hence they knew that Suhail and its constellation Carina appeared shortly as the summer ended in late August and the cooler days of autumn came.”
professor at the American University of Sharjah
In Arabic folklore, when “Suhail rises” – a star with a mass that is eight times greater than the sun - it meant the night would begin to cool and pearl divers, farmers and fisherman would adjust their schedules accordingly.
The UAE’s Al Sadeem Astronomy noted on X that it was a "breathtaking moment to observe Canopus" in the sky.
"Suhail and other such notable stars held a special place in Arab culture; for instance, Sirius, known to Arabs as al-shi`ra, the brightest star in the sky, is mentioned in the Quran," adds Guessoum. "Suhail was often mentioned in poems, symbolising hope, change, and guidance in the desert.”
Did desert animals know if it was going to rain?
Bedouins used their observations not only of the behaviours of the animals in their herds, but also of those of the birds and animals around them to predict the weather and were well-versed in how the migratory patterns of birds signalled the coming winter.
One such meteorological belief was that an increase in the number of scorpions indicated coming rain. Another was that the increased activity of ants signified an impending storm.
While there is no scientific evidence to suggest ants are able to predict rain, ant antennae can detect minuscule changes in temperature which may lead to a change in their behaviour as temperatures tend to drop ahead of rainfall.
“The ancient Arabs observed the sky carefully, knew the stars and the planets, and noticed patterns, particularly seasonal changes,” says Guessoum. “They thus associated the appearance of specific stars and constellations with changing weather, for example of rain soon to come, even though that association was one of correlation, not causation.”
Their knowledge of animal behaviours and migratory patterns, coupled with the constellations, would prove vital for agricultural reasons, allowing them to predict the best time to plant crops.
“The first rise of Al-Thurayya (the Pleiades), just before dawn in late June, early July, marked the start of the planting season. Al-Dabaran (Aldebaran), another bright star, meant a transition to hotter weather," adds Guessoum. "This all was very useful in timing for agriculture, travel and festivals. This knowledge, known as ilm al-anwa (the science of the constellations), was based on centuries of careful sky-watching and oral tradition.”
Could Bedouins 'smell' the change in weather?
The smell of both approaching rain and post-downpour is known as “petrichor”, a term coined by Australian scientists in 1964 to describe the scent.
Ancient cultures believed that the different smells that emanated from the earth were a way to predict much-needed rain after droughts or long dry spells.
Bedouins relied on their sense of smell to predict when rain could come, believing that the ground emanated a distinctive scent as a result of the soil reacting to the increased moisture in the air.
These days, we know that the smells are caused by certain compounds such as plant oils, ozone, and the musty geosmin, which gives beetroots their earthy smell.
