Boeing Starliner’s future uncertain as Nasa considers returning crew with SpaceX

Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore have been stuck aboard the International Space Station since June

Boeing astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore on the International Space Station ... but how will they get home? AFP

The troubled space odyssey of Boeing's Starliner has added to the woes of a company already beset by grave challenges back on Earth.

A spate of technical issues plaguing the capsule mean a planned eight-day mission on the International Space Station (ISS) for astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, which began in June, could extend to eight months.

The headaches do not stop there for the ailing aerospace giant – as the Nasa astronauts may end up having to hitch a ride home on the rival Dragon capsule operated by Elon Musk's Space X as far off as next February.

Nasa said it will announce an update on Saturday and was considering SpaceX as an option, to finally conclude a prolonged test flight which forms a key part a $4.2 billion contract with Boeing.

Experts in the industry said that outcome of Nasa’s decision will have significant implications for Boeing's role in the commercial space sector and could influence future mission planning for the agency.

'Embarrassing' setback

"This would be quite embarrassing for Boeing – right now they have not demonstrated that they can match the capability of bringing astronauts safely to and from the space station, which SpaceX Dragon has been providing for years," Dr Sarah Gallagher, director of the Institute for Earth and Space Exploration at Western University, in Ontario, Canada, told The National.

Boeing Starliner astronauts arrive at International Space Station

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Boeing has been developing the Starliner for nearly a decade as part of Nasa's Commercial Crew Programme, which the agency launched to have several "taxi" options for its astronauts.

But the Starliner programme has faced various technical issues over the years, including on this first crewed flight, in which the craft suffered helium leaks and thruster issues.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has already launched eight crews for the agency so far.

"Nasa is going to be careful about risking the safety of the astronauts when there is another option for getting them back to Earth that is less risky," said Dr Gallagher.

"It is better for Nasa if there are more options for getting people to and from space – this adds redundancy in case of problems.

"However, if a vendor continues to be unreliable, one would certainly think twice about continuing to work with them."

Two 'taxi' options for Nasa astronauts

Nasa launched the Commercial Crew Programme after having to rely on the Russians since 2011 when its Space Shuttle flights ended.

SpaceX vehicles continue to be a reliable transport for Nasa astronauts and private clients, and despite delays, it was a huge milestone for Boeing and Nasa to finally launch a crewed test flight on Starliner.

But it could be a while before Nasa could say that it has two trusted space vehicles, according to Dr Simeon Barber, senior research fellow at The Open University.

“In reality, even if Suni and Butch do come home on Starliner, it seems inevitable that a lot of further engineering work will be needed to bring Starliner up to scratch before it can be considered a fully proven vehicle,” she said.

"Perhaps the events since Starliner’s launch serve to vindicate Nasa’s decision to develop two, independent options to get its astronauts to and from ISS.

"So, although the return journey is a hard decision to make right now, it is in fact a luxury to have a choice."

Boeing's relationship with Nasa

Boeing has been a key partner of Nasa for decades, contributing to major space missions such as Apollo and the Space Shuttle.

In recent years, their collaboration has focused on the Commercial Crew Programme.

Michael Flachbart, former vice president of global space camp operations at the US Space and Rocket Centre, said trust between the two organisations could be strained after problems with Starliner.

"The partnership dynamics in the short term are highly dependent on whether the Starliner returns safely with no crew, has major issues, or is lost altogether," he said.

"The dynamics are already stressed due to the issues encountered on this flight and Starliner’s history to date.

"Trust could be completely lost if there are major issues and it is deemed that Boeing underplayed the risks of a crewed return."

Sahith Reddy Madara, an aerospace engineer and founder of Paris-based advisory firm Bumi and Space, said it could be a tipping point for Nasa to rethink its reliance on Boeing for future missions.

He said Boeing could find itself in a position "where it is not the legacy giant any more".

"In the bigger picture, this could open doors for other players in the space industry," said Mr Madara.

"If Boeing doesn’t step up, Nasa might start looking at newer companies who can deliver on time and under budget.

"For years, Boeing has been the trusted partner, but let's be real – Starliner’s been plagued with setbacks and that’s starting to wear thin."