While world leaders pose for photos at Cop28, negotiations on the global stocktake are beginning in the background. AFP
While world leaders pose for photos at Cop28, negotiations on the global stocktake are beginning in the background. AFP
While world leaders pose for photos at Cop28, negotiations on the global stocktake are beginning in the background. AFP
While world leaders pose for photos at Cop28, negotiations on the global stocktake are beginning in the background. AFP

First draft of Cop28 global stocktake hints at tough talks ahead


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Cop28 has begun work on one of its central tasks: delivering a verdict on global climate policy that must be agreed by almost 200 countries.

A first working draft was circulated on Friday of the first “global stocktake”, which will set out how close we are to limiting global warming to 1.5°C and outline what more needs to be done.

The 12-page text of “building blocks” is a rough starting point for the two weeks of talks in the UAE.

It leaves key issues open and is sure to go through many revisions.

Still, it was welcomed as a useful opening salvo in which “all the ingredients are there”, as countries began giving their first reactions to the text at Dubai’s Expo City.

The draft text for the global stocktake:

· Says that countries are “not collectively on track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement”, which set the 1.5°C goal

· Notes with “significant concern” that there is a rapidly narrowing window to take the action needed to keep 1.5°C alive

· Leaves several options open on the table on the key energy debate, including a “phase-down/out [of] fossil fuels” and a “phase-down/out/no new coal”

· Emphasises the importance of protecting nature and ecosystems, while leaving specific calls to action on deforestation, agriculture and oceans for further discussion

· Urges parties to take the GST’s findings into account when they submit their next round of national climate policies, which are due before the Cop30 summit in 2025.

Fossil fuel debate

A verdict that the world is not on track has long been expected, after a September report underpinning the stocktake said “much more action” is still needed.

How to plug those gaps is a much more contentious issue, with differing views expressed on fossil fuels.

With the next stocktake not due until 2028, the talks in Dubai are regarded as a key moment to agree action before it is too late.

At Cop26 in Britain two years ago, a short early draft on “accelerating the phase-out of unabated coal power” turned into a much wordier compromise in which the language was changed to “phase-down” at the last minute.

Still, the fact that fossil fuels were mentioned in Friday’s draft at all was taken as a good sign.

“All the ingredients are there, just have to mix them together in a coherent string of words now,” said Sonia Dunlop, the chief executive of the Global Solar Council.

Simon Evans of energy website Carbon Brief said those pushing to agree language on a phase-out of fossil fuels “will be encouraged to see that explicitly in this first draft”.

“That's already a contrast with Cop27 [in Egypt], where the presidency consistently failed to include fossil fuel phase-out in draft negotiating texts, leaving many countries frustrated.”

Cop28 begins at Dubai's Expo City – in pictures

  • Cop27 President Sameh Shoukry, left, hands over the gavel to Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber at the UN climate conference's opening ceremony. AFP
    Cop27 President Sameh Shoukry, left, hands over the gavel to Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber at the UN climate conference's opening ceremony. AFP
  • Dr Sultan Al Jaber speaks during the opening session at Expo City Dubai. AP
    Dr Sultan Al Jaber speaks during the opening session at Expo City Dubai. AP
  • King Charles III visiting Heriot-Watt University Dubai Campus during the Cop28 summit. PA
    King Charles III visiting Heriot-Watt University Dubai Campus during the Cop28 summit. PA
  • Sameh Shoukry, Cop27 President, centre, attends the opening session. AP
    Sameh Shoukry, Cop27 President, centre, attends the opening session. AP
  • US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry attends the Cop28 opening session. Reuters
    US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry attends the Cop28 opening session. Reuters
  • Raquel Sousa Chaves from Brazil at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Raquel Sousa Chaves from Brazil at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Visitors on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Visitors on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Recyclable wind turbines on show on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Recyclable wind turbines on show on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • A plant-based food cafe at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    A plant-based food cafe at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Vegan activists on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Vegan activists on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Pollution Pods, an installation by British artist Michael Pinsky, where Cop28 visitors can safely experience the air pollution in Beijing and other cities. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Pollution Pods, an installation by British artist Michael Pinsky, where Cop28 visitors can safely experience the air pollution in Beijing and other cities. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Indigenous leaders and climate campaigners are among the attendees at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Indigenous leaders and climate campaigners are among the attendees at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Fair-trade vegan chocolate being handed out at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Fair-trade vegan chocolate being handed out at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Day one at Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Day one at Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28, Dubai Expo City. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28, Dubai Expo City. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • The first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    The first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • The first day of Cop 28 at Expo City, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    The first day of Cop 28 at Expo City, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • National flags on display at the UN climate summit. AP
    National flags on display at the UN climate summit. AP
  • Delegates arriving for the opening of Cop28. Pawan Singh / The National
    Delegates arriving for the opening of Cop28. Pawan Singh / The National
  • More than 70,000 delegates, including world leaders, climate scientists, business leaders and young people, are expected to attend. Pawan Singh / The National
    More than 70,000 delegates, including world leaders, climate scientists, business leaders and young people, are expected to attend. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Delegates will engage in a stock take to see how pledges to limit global warming are being implemented. Pawan Singh / The National
    Delegates will engage in a stock take to see how pledges to limit global warming are being implemented. Pawan Singh / The National
  • The summit aims to keep on track efforts to restrict global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Pawan Singh / The National
    The summit aims to keep on track efforts to restrict global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Hora – The Unity Dance artwork, by Marius Diaconu, on display at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Hora – The Unity Dance artwork, by Marius Diaconu, on display at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28 runs until December 12. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28 runs until December 12. Chris Whiteoak / The National

Analyst Tom Evans from think tank E3G said the draft was a “useful building block for the negotiations”.

“It highlights some areas where there is already convergence, but the most contentious areas aren't written as text just yet – including possible outcomes on renewable energy and fossil fuels, and on unlocking finance for climate action,” he said.

“There's much work ahead for negotiators to unpack this long text further and resolve these political debates.”

Hopes have been raised after a breakthrough on day one of Cop28, when countries agreed a deal on climate-related loss and damage – another key subject that has involved difficult talks.

Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, said the loss and damage deal “sets a clear ambition for us to agree a comprehensive, ambitious GST decision over the next 12 days”.

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Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPurpl%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarl%20Naim%2C%20Wissam%20Ghorra%2C%20Jean-Marie%20Khoueir%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHub71%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20Beirut%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%242%20million%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

Updated: December 01, 2023, 12:46 PM