The flood that hit the UAE in April last year caused an increase in greenery in the country's desert landscapes, research has found.
Vegetation in some areas increased by up to 40 per cent compared to the same time in 2023 and this has had a lasting impact, which is “very surprising”, climate scientist Dr Diana Francis told The National.
“If you drive through the desert now, you'll see green patches growing on the dunes. That's not something we are used to seeing in the UAE,” she added.
Dr Francis, head of the environmental and geophysical sciences lab at Khalifa University, co-wrote the paper published in the npj Climate and Atmospheric Science journal. She said it provided evidence that extreme weather was beginning to reshape ecosystems and alter local climates.
“Of course, this has an impact on the ecosystem, on the biodiversity, the small animals that live there, and also in the long term,” she said.
Boosting biodiversity
Dr Andrew Gardner, associate director of biodiversity conservation at Emirates Nature-WWF, agreed that weather events such as the 2024 floods can have a profound impact on local ecosystems.
“Such rare bursts of vegetation can temporarily boost biodiversity. Insects become more abundant, which supports lizards and, in turn, predators like snakes,” he said.
“In May [2024], for instance, we witnessed a dramatic emergence of snout moths, whose caterpillars feed on these desert plants,” he said. This biodiversity also supports small mammals such as gerbils and their predators, including falcons and desert monitor lizards.
However, Dr Gardner warned that such ecological responses are fascinating but “they are short-term and cannot offset the broader risks and disruptions posed by increasingly erratic climate patterns”.
Shifting tropical boundaries
Such weather could potentially cause climate zones to shift, Dr Francis said. “More vegetation means more moisture exchange and can even shift the boundary between arid and tropical zones.”
She said her study, which was published in May, aligns with earlier work suggesting the tropics are expanding, bringing more humid conditions to traditionally dry areas. That could fundamentally alter ecosystems and biodiversity in the Middle East.
Dr Gardner added that, in the Abu Dhabi desert, a flush of ephemeral plants – which grow only briefly when conditions are favourable – was observed. “Remarkably, some of this vegetation has persisted even in the absence of further rainfall into 2025,” he added.
While 2024 was the wettest year on record for the UAE, 2025 has so far has been the driest, with April and May breaching temperature records. Such fluctuations are driven by climate change, Dr Francis said.
Climate concern
The study confirmed that human-driven climate change made last year's rainfall in the UAE, the heaviest in 75 years, far more likely in the future.
The research used cutting-edge climate attribution science to examine the rainfall, Dr Francis explained.
“We compare simulations of the actual event with a hypothetical version under pre-industrial conditions. What we found was that anthropogenic [human-influenced] climate change dramatically increased both the intensity and likelihood of this event,” she said.
Is extreme weather the new normal?
Dr Francis said fluctuations between extreme heat and extreme rainfall showed “the fingerprint of climate change”. “The Arabian Sea is warming rapidly, and with warmer oceans comes more evaporation, which fuels heavier rainfall events,” she added.
A key finding of the study was the role of a weather pattern that meant saturated air from the Arabian Sea lingered over the UAE for 12 hours, significantly compounding the severity of last year's storm.
“Such events usually pass within hours,” Dr Francis explained. “But this one was sustained due to unusual atmospheric and oceanic conditions. With ocean surface temperatures rising, similar set-ups are increasingly likely.”
Need for resilient cities
The study includes an analysis of the effect of the flooding on urban infrastructure. The findings suggest existing drainage systems and land use policies need to be enhanced to cope with such extreme weather.
“Our cities are not designed to absorb these volumes of water,” Dr Francis said. “If we keep covering land with impermeable concrete, water has nowhere to go. We need to rethink urban planning with more green space and better drainage to reduce future damage.”
Plans are already under way. In Dubai, a Dh30 billion ($8.16 billion) drainage plan was approved last year.
The system aims to increase rainwater drainage capacity by 700 per cent, meet the emirate’s needs for 100 years and ensure the city is ready to face “climate-related challenges”.
Hot topic
Dr Francis and her team are turning their attention to extreme heat. “We're studying past heatwaves from a public health perspective, and we're also integrating artificial intelligence into weather models,” she said. “AI might help us improve the short-term forecasting of extreme events.”
She also said more vegetation in the desert would affect its ability to reflect solar radiation back into the atmosphere, potentially leading to hotter conditions.
“Instead of being all yellow, it is now yellow and green,” she said. “It's not the same energy that is being absorbed by the surface of the desert.”
