Geopolitical tensions simmer as Cop29 heads into second week

Climate campaigners urge countries to remember they are in Azerbaijan to 'tackle the greatest threat to our future'

Climate advocates urging world leaders to commit to a strong finance deal at Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Saturday. Reuters

Geopolitical tensions have rippled through Cop29, prompting climate campaigners to remind national leaders why they are in Baku.

Negotiations will resume on Monday – Sunday is a rest day – after the usually staid world of climate negotiations was rattled by a French minister cancelling her trip to the summit and Argentina withdrawing its delegation.

The French move came after Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev targeted France and the Netherlands over what he said was colonial rule. Mr Aliyev also used his speech during the World Climate Action Summit on Tuesday to criticise those who accused Azerbaijan of being a “petrostate”, and railed against the “hypocrisy” of the West.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, weighed in by stating on X that “these unacceptable statements risk to undermine the conference’s vital climate objectives”, prompting Hikmat Hajiyev, assistant to Azerbaijan’s president, to refute the remarks and state the “Cop process belongs to the UN and world”. He pledged that the Cop29 presidency would work constructively with all parties to deliver a good outcome.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at Cop29, criticised France and the Netherlands over what he described as colonial rule. Rafiq Maqbool / AP Photo

Argentina's decision was not fully explained but its president, Javier Milei, is a climate sceptic. Along with the election of Donald Trump as US president-elect just before the summit, it has made for an interesting first week in Baku where countries are grappling with the hardest topic of all: money.

Azerbaijan, hosting arguably the most prestigious global gathering in its history, is drawing on its experience leading the Non-Aligned Movement from 2019 to 2024 and ultimately trying to showcase its geopolitical influence outside the West.

“It has built relationships with fellow developing producers, but also the most climate-vulnerable of countries,” Ruth Townend, senior research fellow at the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House, told The National. “It is not unusual for Cop hosts to want to keep their friends close at such events.”

World away from the West

The summit has shed light on the sometimes strange and surreal world of meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A delegation from the Taliban wandered the halls during the first week and Russia, despite being sanctioned in the West, was drawing people to its prominent pavilion in the UNFCCC-managed “blue zone” for talks and events such as one on the future of its coal industry and climate.

Cop28 ended with a historic decision to “transition away” from fossil fuels. However, during his speech at the leader’s summit, the Azerbaijani President said his country was an advocate for the green transition but called for people to be “realistic” about it.

“It is this reframing of the event which is of most concern, rather than the presidency's encouragement of allies to attend,” said Ms Townend, who wrote Azerbaijan’s climate leadership challenge: what’s at stake at Cop29 and beyond for the think tank.

Several protests at the venue over the past week called for countries to act faster. Is the geopolitical backdrop playing a role?

“No, no, there's no political division,” Evans Njewa, chairman of the Least Developed Countries 45-country bloc, told The National. “I think we're moving together.”

No consensus means no agreement

Cop29 has one main task – to deliver more funds to those who need it most to fund the green transition. Drafts of the negotiating text – which would unlock funds for vulnerable countries on the front lines of climate change – have so far gone through several iterations with countries remaining far apart.

High-profile absences such as US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping do not help the talks, with the diplomatic point-scoring further complicating the already tough job. These meetings work by consensus.

“Cop29, with its focus on climate finance, needs the major economies who have the responsibility and potential to mobilise this, to be in the room,” said Ms Townend.

A mixed reaction has greeted the call on Friday for reform of the Cop in a letter to the United Nations from a group that included former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon. Negotiators from the small island states, for example, cautioned that they had a seat at the table at Cops – in contrast to the G20 which will meet in Brazil from November 18 to 19. The South American country also hosts Cop30 next year.

“We're not a part of those [G20] discussions,” said Michai Robertson, a negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States. “So it is extremely important for forums like the UNFCCC to continue to exist.”

Despite the absences and withdrawals however, this could not be described as a forgotten Cop. Figures supplied by the UNFCCC show about 65,000 people have registered to attend.

Cop29 summit in Azerbaijan – in pictures

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  Participants at the Cop29 venue in Baku, Azerbaijan. Reuters

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  Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary in the German Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development, speaks in the Germany pavilion. Getty Images

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  Nuclear power activists demonstrate. AP

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  Activists hold a protest calling on developed nations to provide financing. Reuters

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  An activist holds up a sign. Reuters

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  Conference participants arrive on day four. Getty Images

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  Another protest. Reuters

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  From left, Jorge Perez, Rolando Escobar, Miguel Vasquez and Esteban Cama at a session on Indigenous communities in the Peruvian Amazon. AP

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  President Sheikh Mohamed attends the World Leaders Climate Action Summit at Cop29, in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. UAE Presidential Court

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  Sheikh Mohamed greets Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey. WAM

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  British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Cop29. Bloomberg

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  Ding Xuexiang, China's first Vice Premier, at Cop29. Bloomberg

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  Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at a plenary session at Cop29. AP

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  Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, at Cop29. Bloomberg

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  World leaders pose for a group photo at the Cop29 United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Baku, Azerbaijan. AP

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  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, left, stands next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Reuters

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  Antonio Guterres, UN secretary-general, addresses Cop29. Bloomberg

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  Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev speaks during the Cop29 opening ceremony. Reuters

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  Rafael Grossi, director general of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at Cop29. Bloomberg

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  Activists demonstrate for climate justice and a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, on day one of Cop29. AP

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  Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber and Cop29 President Mukhtar Babayev at the official handover. AFP

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  Dr Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, delivers a speech during the opening of Cop29 in Baku. AFP

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  Mr Babayev speaks during the opening plenary session. AP

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  An installation depicting a beached whale by the Belgian art collective Captain Boomer on an embankment in Baku. EPA

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  The Turkey Solidarity Centre pavilion. Bloomberg

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  Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, speaks during the opening ceremony. EPA

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  People begin arriving for the start of Cop29 in Baku. Bloomberg

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  Dr Al Jaber at Cop29 with Moroccan climate researcher Cherif El Khalil. AP

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  A mosaic adorns a wall at the Cop29 venue, Baku Stadium, in the capital of Azerbaijan. Bloomberg

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  A woman tries out a VR headset at the tourism booth as the Cop29 UN climate summit gets under way in Baku, Azerbaijan. AP

Defending the Paris deal

Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States, said they were here to “defend the Paris agreement” and ensure the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels was kept. Warming above this, scientists believe, could endanger the lives and livelihoods of countless people across the world.

This defence of previous goals rather than raising ambition to new ones has disappointed some climate campaigners. Zainab Bie, the Asia Pacific director of campaign group Equal Right, told The National that communities need to now lead the climate transition.

“We must seize this finance Cop as an opportunity to move beyond politics and focus on bold, people-centred solutions,” she said.

Hailey Campbell, co-executive director of the Care About Climate group, said Cop29 had gone from pushing for ambitious outcomes to “holding the line against backsliding”.

“Climate change doesn’t stop because of politics,” she said. “Parties must step back and remember we are here for a reason bigger than ourselves and our politics. We are here to tackle the greatest threat to our future and we need them to act like it.”