Update: Leticia Carvalho won the election on August 2
A crucial vote for the next head of a UN-affiliated body that plays a key role in the future of the world's oceans is due to take place on Friday.
The winner will be able to steer the timing of deep-sea mining of metals essential for batteries in products such as electric cars.
The vote has divided opinion in Pacific island nations over how the seas should be treated and led to mud-slinging between opposing camps.
Michael Lodge, 64, a lawyer from the UK, is seeking re-election as secretary general of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is based in Kingston, Jamaica. It is governed by 168 member countries plus the European Union, with a mandate to authorise and control mining “for the common heritage of all mankind” and to protect the marine environment from harm.
Mr Lodge, who is keen to finalise regulations that would kickstart the potentially multibillion-dollar industry, is pitted against a rival who favours a more cautious approach.
Leticia Carvalho, a 50-year-old Brazilian ocean scientist and UN official, says finalising the regulations may take years of further negotiations to protect the deep sea from the most harmful effects of mining.
Reserves of metals are estimated to be worth anywhere from $8 trillion to more than $16 trillion, much of them at the bottom of the Pacific, but nations are split between those opposed on environmental grounds and others that see the economic benefits.
At the sharp end of this debate is the tiny nation of Palau, which has a population of only 18,000 people, where sea levels are set to rise throughout this century. It is regularly battered by surging storms and its coral reefs are dying.
Surangel Whipps, President of Palau, which wants a halt on deep-sea mining, told The National he believes Mr Lodge's re-election would prompt an acceleration in deep-sea mining, leading to a potentially devastating environmental impact on his nation.
“In our view, we see he's very pro-mining,” he told The National in an exclusive interview.
After running unopposed in 2020, Mr Lodge has overseen more than 1.3 million square kilometres of seabed exploration by private and state-backed metals companies. So far 31 licences have been awarded to explore the oceans for minerals.
“We can only assume that is going to continue,” said Mr Whipps.
He said Mr Lodge should be commissioning more scientific studies to ensure deep-sea mining does not harm the environment.
“As a small-island developing state, we are the front line of climate change. We think we need to look at all the scientific information,” he said.
He described Ms Carvalho as “a great candidate” and added: “I think ISA is at a point where it needs somebody that can bring more transparency and better governance. Change is good.''
Island legend
For the President of Palau, the debate is more than about economics, it concerns his nation’s deep cultural relationship with the environment.
He cited the example of Palau in the 1970s, when there was a proposal to build a huge port and oil storage depot on the island, which would have brought substantial wealth but was ultimately rejected due to its potential environmental impact.
"Fortunately, those young people at that time, my father among them, were able to stand up and say ‘this is this not good, we have to do better, we have treasures down there that we need to protect, not only for us but for our children’,” he said.
“You know, in the Palauan legend of the creation, we came from the sea. So culturally, we're an ocean people.”
Palau has been vocal in its calls for a moratorium on deep-sea mining and was the first nation to sign a UN High Seas Treaty, which states activity in oceans can take place only if it is consistent with conservation objectives.
Mr Whipps addressed last year's Cop28 climate summit in the UAE, which included a day of talks devoted to nature, land use and oceans, to make a plea for protecting the seas.
“Our ocean feeds us, protects us and defines us. We must protect it in return,” Mr Whipps told leaders in Dubai. “A healthy ocean is a healthy planet.”
Island leaders left the summit with $225 million in seed funding for a Pacific conservation plan, from donors including the Bezos Earth Fund.
The final text agreed at Cop28, known as the UAE Consensus, invites countries to “preserve and restore oceans and coastal ecosystems” as part of their national 'go-green' plans.
Mining industry plans
Under the most common type of mining, contractors such as Canada’s The Metals Company (TMC) hope to use remote-controlled machines the size of lorries "to scoop up rocks sitting on the sea floor".
These rocks, known as polymetallic nodules, are crushed and processed to release metals such as cobalt, manganese and nickel, which are found in lithium-ion batteries used in everything from vapes to laptops, from mobile phones to, perhaps most crucially, electric cars.
Scientists last month published findings that polymetallic nodules found in one of TMC’s mining areas actually produce a type of oxygen known as "dark oxygen", an extraordinary discovery some ISA delegates say means mining efforts should decelerate.
Mr Lodge has pushed to finish the so-called Mining Code as soon as this year, ahead of the ISA’s official 2025 target to adopt new regulations.
But environmental organisations, including Greenpeace and World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), oppose deep-sea mining, while 27 nations support a precautionary pause, moratorium or ban.
Carbon reservoir
According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, deep-sea mining can cause disruption of the ocean floor, which is by far the largest carbon storage reservoir on Earth.
This can lead to reduced carbon removal as well as the release of large amounts of the potent greenhouse gas methane, exacerbating the climate crisis.
Razan Khalifa Al Mubarak, president of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for the leadership team of Cop28, recently described the oceans as the "lungs" of the Earth.
The WWF says deep-sea mining presents an unacceptable risk to marine life.
Mr Whipps said as well as being vulnerable to rising sea levels, his nation also depends on the ocean for fishing, to feed itself and for exports.
He singles out the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, and area of 1 million square kilometres in the Pacific – where 16 deep-sea mining companies have been awarded contracts for exploration – to warn of the effect deep-sea mining could have.
“We have to be careful about what we're doing. The size that they want to rip up is huge," he said.
“We also know that whatever happens in one part of the Pacific has an impact on the other part and the way they're proposing the deep-sea mine could have catastrophic impacts to all of us.
“It’s our shared backyard, it belongs to all of humankind and to those of us that live in the Pacific.”
While Palau, along with Tuvalu and Vanuatu, are sceptical about deep-sea mining, other Pacific nations such as Kiribati have embraced what they see as its potential.
The Pacific archipelago, which has a population of 120,000 scattered across 32 tropical atolls, has its own mining company which holds an ISA contract to explore and potentially mine 75,000 square kilometres of the Pacific seabed.
Separately, Kiribati, Nauru and Tonga have teamed up with The Metals Company, which says it will apply for permission to mine later this year.
In a twist that has injected controversy into the ISA race, Kiribati nominated Mr Lodge, after his former backer, the UK, withdrew support after it had sponsored him for two terms, which he has completed.
He has been the public face of the ISA for decades, joining as legal officer in 1996 and rising to deputy secretary general before being elected to the top post in 2016.
The nation has stated its support for him based, in part, on his commitment to finalising international mining regulations so commercial exploration of cobalt, nickel and other metals in the deep sea can begin.
Pacific divide
Ms Carvalho's pitch is as the first woman and scientist to potentially lead the ISA.
The former federal environmental regulator and an official with the UN Environment Programme in Nairobi says her priorities as secretary general would be transparency and accountability.
She claims she was offered a senior position in the ISA by Teburoro Tito, Kiribati’s UN ambassador, in return for dropping out of the race. He maintains it was merely “a suggestion”.
Ms Carvalho has also made claims about Mr Lodge, including that he used his position inappropriately to campaign.
Mr Lodge has not spoken about his candidacy but in a statement to Bloomberg he said the allegations against him "lack any probative weight and persuasive force".
Mr Lodge has been approached separately by The National through the ISA.
Mr Whipps is scathing about the secretary general’s association with Kiribati.
"I'm glad that the UK understands that their term is up and they're not putting his name forward again. It's unfortunate Kiribati is now taking up his name.
“He has already served his time and so his term is up.”
Andrew Thaler, a Maryland-based deep-sea scientist and consultant who closely follows the ISA, said the new secretary general will have an "enormous" role to play, as the commercialisation of deep-sea mining is being held up by the stalled finalisation of regulations.
He said several nations believe Mr Lodge is on the side of the mining contractors.
Mr Thaler said Mr Lodge has “a preference towards commercial deep-sea mining as quickly as possible”.
“It certainly seems like he very much views it as his legacy as the secretary general to be the person who gets the mining code done during his tenure,” he said.
But while there maybe two different approaches by the candidates, he said: “I don't see a conceivable path where it would be put on ice.”
