Can Hizbollah afford to take on Israel?

Ghassan Charbel in Al Hayat examines Hizbollah's priorities. Other topics: Russia and Egypt.

Hizbollah is not weak. Its current arsenal is larger than it was during the so-called “July 2006 War”, as it has considerably developed its capabilities in what comes across as an arms race with ­Israel, explained Ghassan Charbel in Thursday’s editorial in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat. Hizbollah has actually grown stronger.

The July 2006 War ended on the following note: Israel was to refrain from targeting Lebanese territory, while Hizbollah ceased its military operations on Lebanon’s southern border. So far, this agreement has worked as both sides have complied with its requirements.

Following the latest Israeli raid targeting Hizbollah bases, the party stressed that it would retaliate in due time, as such blatant assaults were not only against the party but also against Lebanon. However, the reasons behind this raid are linked to the Syrian crisis rather than to Lebanon itself.

Israel has announced on many occasions what it considers to be the lines that should not be crossed regarding the crisis in Syria. The first concerns any attempt made to transfer weapons that would substantially tip the balance in Hizbollah’s favour. Israel, therefore, attacked a number of targets on Syrian territory.

Hizbollah does not lack the necessary capability to respond to such raids. Its rockets can hit Israel at its core.

Charbal asks: “What if Israel decides to retaliate in turn, leading the situation to escalate? What if Israel decided to enter into war now, throwing sands in the wheels of the US-Iran negotiations? What would be the impact of such war at such time of instability in the region?”

Hizbollah does indeed have the necessary military capabilities to enter into such a war, but its stand in Lebanon today is quite different from what it was in 2006. At least half of the Lebanese representatives do not agree with the tripartite ministerial motto: “People, Army, Resistance”. As for its position in Syria, it is radically different from that of 2006.

In Lebanon and Syria alike, Hizbollah faces two large Sunni groups as it pays a hefty price for its involvement in the Syrian crisis, with a high economic impact of such participation on the Lebanese people. Can the latter sustain the additional burdens from a new confrontation with Israel?

Some believe that the latest Israeli aggression will strengthen the party’s position and right to “resist”.

“The war in Syria will most likely escalate after the slap [Russian president Vladimir] ­Putin received in Ukraine and some expect it to last for three more years. These are hard times for Hizbollah. It has to take a deep look into its current situation, options and its relations on the Lebanese front,” Charbel concluded.

Ukraine setback may force Russian rethink

The second Geneva conference on Syria was critical in that it proved that the regime there is no longer politically viable or qualified to enter serious negotiations that could lead to an end the ongoing civil war, said the columnist Ali Hamadeh in the Lebanese daily Annahar.

The failed conference also proved that Bashar Al Assad’s ­regime, along with its Russian and Iranian supporters, are merely buying time while attempt­ing to make tangible gains on the battleground to secure the regime’s continuity.

On the other hand, the liberal opposition, despite its weakness, tried to present itself as a responsible, moderate party – only to be shot down by brutal extremist groups that fight alongside it and distort its image, hence, knowingly or unknowingly, serving the regime’s agenda.

Increased Russian weapons supplies to the Assad regime and dramatic developments in Russia’s backyard in Ukraine suggest that Russia will try to bolster its position in another arena where an international-regional confrontation is taking place: Syria.

“In any event, nothing on the regional and international scenes indicates that the battle in Syria is anyway near the end,” the writer said. “In the meantime, the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate”, he added, especially with Hizbollah’s deep involvement in Syria and the rising numbers of Syrian refugees flooding across the border.

Cabinet resignations a ‘cover’ for El Sisi

The resignation of Egyptian prime minister Hazem El Beblawi and his cabinet last week came as a surprise to the whole world, said Mazen Hammad, the columnist in the Qatari daily Al Watan.

Some observers surmised that it was meant to relieve the “real” prime minister, defence minister Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El Sisi, of his ministerial responsibilities and remove the constitutional barrier preventing him from running in presidential elections.

Meanwhile, reports in the Egyptian press suggest that the government didn’t resign of its own volition, but was instructed to do so by interim president Adli Mansour, in agreement with Mr El Sisi, who didn’t want to officially announce his candidacy under a cabinet seen as weak.

“Most analysts in the post-Mubarak era focus on political and human rights issues in Egypt but they fail to give sufficient interest to Egypt’s more pressing economic issues. Under Mr El Beblawi, Egypt has been suffering from shortages in fuel and energy as well as widespread labour strikes,” the writer explained.

Economic institutions in successive political eras have been incapable of providing the basic livelihood requirements for citizens. In light of this, the resignations were “carefully designed” to protect Mr El Sissi.

* Digest compiled by Translation Desk