Many Lebanese farmers have been forced to pass on the higher costs of food to consumers. Joseph Eid / AFP
Many Lebanese farmers have been forced to pass on the higher costs of food to consumers. Joseph Eid / AFP
Many Lebanese farmers have been forced to pass on the higher costs of food to consumers. Joseph Eid / AFP
Many Lebanese farmers have been forced to pass on the higher costs of food to consumers. Joseph Eid / AFP

Syria spurs inflation rise in Lebanon


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Lebanese inflation passed the 9 per cent mark last month as the fallout from Syria's civil war and strong global commodity costs squeezed the economy.

Consumer prices climbed to 9.3 per cent from the same month a year ago, according to data on the website of the country's statistics office. The previous month, annual inflation stood at 8.9 per cent.

"Global food prices have come up in the past few months and that has fed through to inflation," said Liz Martins, HSBC's senior economist for the Middle East and North Africa. "It is not driven by strong growth as the economy has been very weak but more about shortages and global import prices."

Lebanon's factory owners and farmers have suffered as high fuel prices have pushed up the cost of running generators and transport.

In response, many have been forced to pass on the higher costs of food and other goods to consumers, who are already grappling with rising education and medical costs.

To make matters worse, conflict in neighbouring Syria has further aggravated prices in border areas. An influx of Syrian refugees, some with cash handouts from aid workers, has stoked medicine prices by 34 per cent and food prices by 12 per cent in the north since the Syrian crisis began in March last year, according to a recent survey of households by the United Nations development programme.

Tensions near Syria's border with Lebanon have restricted access to cheaper education and health care for Lebanese citizens.

Inflation has emerged as a contentious issue in Lebanon as the economy has deteriorated. Officially, consumer prices did not rise above 3.1 per cent during the first seven months of the year, according to the government.

But consumer advocacy groups believe the rise has been much higher, citing the trend of people taking two or more jobs to make ends meet. Still, in recent months the official data has shown prices picking up at a brisker pace.

In contrast, Lebanon's economic performance has remained subdued. The economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, Byblos Bank estimated in a research note this month.

The Institute of International Finance this month downgraded its forecast for Lebanon's GDP growth from 2.1 per cent to 1.2 per cent for this year, citing the effect of turmoil in Syria as a key factor.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

RESULTS

5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: Yas Xmnsor, Sean Kirrane (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)

5.30pm: Falaj Hazza – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Arim W’Rsan, Dane O’Neill, Jaci Wickham

6pm: Al Basrah – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Kalifano De Ghazal, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi

6.30pm: Oud Al Touba – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Pharitz Oubai, Sean Kirrane, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7pm: Sieh bin Amaar – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Oxord, Richard Mullen, Abdalla Al Hammadi

7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: AF Ramz, Sean Kirrane, Khalifa Al Neyadi

8pm: Al Saad – Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Sea Skimmer, Gabriele Malune, Kareem Ramadan

RESULT

Manchester United 2 Burnley 2
Man United:
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Burnley: Barnes (3'), Defour (36')

Man of the Match: Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

Results

2pm: Al Sahel Contracting Company – Maiden (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: AF Mutakafel, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)

2.30pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: El Baareq, Antonio Fresu, Rashed Bouresly

3pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Lost Eden, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson

3.30pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,000m; Winner: Alkaraama, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi

4pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Lady Snazz, Saif Al Balushi, Bhupat Seemar

4.30pm: Hive – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

5pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – (TB) Handicap Dh64,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Lahmoom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer