Some economists, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman among them, worry that innovation may be dead – that truly breakthrough technological advances are a thing of the past.
Energy is often seen as one of the slowest-moving and conservative industrial sectors. Rob Perrons, a professor in Australia who researches energy innovation, contrasts it with the fast-paced computing and telecoms sectors. Energy projects are typically large, very capital-intensive, in service for decades, and present risks to people and environment. The industry therefore does not like to take risks on new designs, and accumulates experience only slowly.
Nevertheless, energy innovation is of great importance because it underpins everything else in the economy. Twentieth-century growth was driven by some truly radical advances in energy – electrification, the internal combustion engine and the jet turbine, plus production and refining that supplied these machines with cheap oil and gas. In turn, these innovations transformed society – the rise of the suburbs, the age of affluence, and globalisation based on cheap air travel.
Are these innovations exhausted? Do we expect the 22nd century economy still to rely on declining reserves of coal, oil and gas with a sprinkling of solar, wind and nuclear plants, and to travel in inefficient oil-powered cars and planes?
Current prospects do not suggest so. It may be conservative, but the energy industry is also capable of surprising bursts of creativity. Though decades in the making, these emerge suddenly to prominence. Most recent are the sudden flood of oil and gas from shales; and the dramatic falls in the price of solar photovoltaic panels.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s “10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2013” included three that would have a major impact on energy. Ultra-efficient solar power, capturing all the wavelengths of visible light, offers the prospect of cheap and clean electricity. Super electric grids, based on direct current, can deliver that electricity over long distances to where it is needed.
3D printing is less obviously linked to energy. But it can transform manufacturing, cutting waste by 40-60 per cent, reducing demand for energy-intensive steel, aluminium, cement and plastics. It can also produce lighter, more fuel-efficient planes and cars, including jet engines impossible to build conventionally.
Other innovations that might transform not just energy, but wider society, are not as far off as we might think. Self-driving vehicles reduce accidents, congestion and fuel consumption, and take the drudgery out of commuting. Cost-effective, reliable electric cars would deliver efficient, pollution-free and quiet motoring. Cheap electricity storage is essential both to make battery-powered cars viable and to store renewable energy from sun or wind until it is needed.
Carbon capture and storage would allow us to consume fossil fuels without contributing to climate change – and, as “artificial trees”, could reverse the build-up of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. Nuclear fusion, imitating the power source of the sun, may be further off but offers limitless large-scale, clean and reliable energy.
Abu Dhabi's Masdar is conducting research into two breakthroughs uniquely suited to this region. Solar-powered desalination could deliver abundant fresh water in arid regions, without greenhouse gas emissions. Algae, growing in hot salty water, offer the promise of zero-carbon biofuels that don't compete with food grown on good farmland.
The debate continues on how best to nurture innovation. Long lead-time, expensive energy technologies such as shale gas and solar power needed a magic formula combining government backing and research, with private ingenuity. Markets need to reward risk-taking while paying a premium for environmental protection.
If we support research and deployment consistently on a large scale, 21st century breakthroughs can be even more dramatic – and more sustainable – than those of the 20th. At least in energy, the well of inspiration is not running dry.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
