Is the glass half full or half empty? It's the question of Cityscape this year.
Dubai’s annual property pilgrimage takes the pulse of the industry and decides whether it is in rude health or a bit off-colour.
In previous years it has been clear which description applies. This year less so.
We know selling prices are off the boil and rents are either static or falling. That is all good.
The rent rises of the past two years were unsustainable and threatened Dubai’s competitiveness.
Only landlords, removal companies and estate agents benefited.
When we talk about the three pillars of the Dubai economy, we are definitely not talking about these three.
The ones we should be focusing on are tourism, trade and finance, which are all growing.
The consensus outlook for property prices is slower but sustainable growth. But is that wish or expectation?
The high end of the market is certainly softening. But that is a narrative that Dubai shares with many other global property markets right now, including London.
The difference is that Dubai still needs to build the transaction volumes that make for rolling hills on the graphs that tell the story of global property markets – not the jagged Himalayan peaks and valleys of a market that is driven by speculation.
Much of the volatility in the market has to do with transaction volumes and supply.
As the population grows and the freehold housing stock expands (19,000 new homes are expected next year), and in the absence of any big external shocks, that volatility factor should improve.
One of the lessons of the past six years is how quickly a glut of property can be absorbed.
So back to the question of the glass.
There will be plenty of experts on hand to provide answers over the next three days.
Just don’t ask the property developers.
They will tell you that not only is the glass half full, but that it is almost certain to double in volume by the time you get to drink it. And there’s only one left.
So stop dawdling and sup up.
scronin@thenational.ae
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