Dubai’s freehold villas are valued at 180 per cent above post-pandemic levels and apartment valuations are 73 per cent higher since the pandemic as the emirate's property sector continues to boom despite a monthly slowdown in transactions, a new report has found.
Villa capital values grew 1.9 per cent monthly in June, with an annual gain of 28.7 per cent, real estate consultancy ValuStrat said in its latest report.
The strongest annual performers included villas in Jumeirah Islands (41.1 per cent), Palm Jumeirah (40.5 per cent), Emirates Hills and The Meadows, both at 27.5 per cent. The lowest annual gains were recorded for villas in Mudon at 8.1 per cent.
Apartment prices rose by 1.1 per cent monthly in June, recording an annual growth of 19.1 per cent, ValuStrat said. The highest yearly capital gains were seen in The Greens (24.4 per cent), Dubai Silicon Oasis (23.4 per cent), Dubailand Residence Complex (23.3 per cent), Palm Jumeirah (22.9 per cent) and Town Square (22.4 per cent), the report found.
In contrast, the lowest capital value increases were recorded in International City (11.2 per cent) and Business Bay (15.8 per cent).
“The market is showing signs of maturity, though momentum may slow through the second half of 2025,” said Haider Tuaima, managing director and group head of real estate research at ValuStrat.
“While several slowdowns in sales were observed over the past 12 months, June recorded fewer transactions than May. However, both off-plan and ready sales posted positive growth on an annual and quarterly basis. One factor contributing to the decline in ready sales is the growing number of end-users purchasing homes, which reduces the available resale inventory.”
Oqood registrations for off-plan homes declined 8 per cent monthly in June, but were 60.1 per cent higher annually, accounting for 73.4 per cent of total residential sales, the ValuStrat report showed.
Meanwhile, ready secondary-home transactions dropped 14.3 per cent since May, but were 11 per cent higher on an annual basis.
The real estate market in Dubai is set to enter a "moderate correction” in the second half of 2025 because of a record number of project launches, Fitch Ratings said in a report in May.
The correction – a phase in which price of an asset declines by 10 per cent or more – would run through 2026, but is not expected to exceed 15 per cent, as the strength of the prime real estate segment will support the rest of the market, the New York-based ratings agency said.
Real estate prices in the emirate, the commercial and financial hub of the Middle East, have leapt by about 60 per cent from 2022 to the first quarter of 2025, Fitch data showed.
The market has maintained a robust momentum after bouncing back from the Covid-driven slowdown and its world-beating run was supported by government measures, including multiple visa options for investors and policy measures that boosted ease of doing business in the emirate.
Top off-plan locations transacted included projects in Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai Investment Park Second, Uptown Motorcity, Damac Island City and Business Bay. Both Dubai Silicon Oasis and Uptown Motorcity broke their individual records with the highest number of off-plan homes traded in one month, the ValuStrat research found.
The majority of ready home sales were concentrated in Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai and DIFC, the consultancy said.
Record sales of $10m-plus homes
While the broader market is showing signs of weakness, the ultra-prime segment remains robust as sales of $10 million-plus homes in Dubai hit a record high of $2.6 billion in the second quarter of 2025, according to a new report by property consultancy Knight Frank.
This was 37 per cent ahead of the $1.9 billion recorded in the first quarter and a 63 per cent uplift on the same period last year.
The total number of $10 million-plus sales during the second quarter hit 143, including 22 transactions for more than $25 million. Apartments outpaced villas in the $10 million+ segment, with 80 apartment sales, compared to 63 villas.
Knight Frank identified Palm Jumeirah as the leading location for $10 million-plus sales, with 28 properties changing hands, while La Mer (23) and Downtown Dubai (16) rounded off the top three busiest $10 million-plus markets in the city.
“The record sales in the luxury price bracket highlight the sustained and rising demand among global and domestic high-net-worth individuals for homes in the emirate,” said Faisal Durrani, partner – head of research, Mena at Knight Frank.
“The total value of all homes sold in Dubai has increased by 282 per cent since 2020, and in 2024 it was once again the world’s busiest market for $10 million-plus homes, recording 435 sales in this price bracket and almost equalling the number of $10 million-plus home sales in London and New York combined.
“Dubai’s residential market continues to mature, as evidenced by the rise in the number of genuine end-users and the decline in the number of homes being sold within 12 months of purchase from around 25 per cent in 2008 to between 4 per cent and 5 per cent today.”
There is also a rising number of “property millionaires” across Dubai, according to the Knight Frank research.
At the start of the second quarter, there were 110,000 residential units valued above $1 million. About 37,000 are owned by “accidental millionaires” – purchasers who bought properties for less than $1 million that are now worth more, solely due to price inflation, the study found.
“The number of accidental millionaires in Dubai has increased by an average of 79.5 per cent over the past three years,” Shehzad Jamal, partner – strategy and consultancy, Mena at Knight Frank, said.
Palm Jumeirah has Dubai’s highest concentration of $1 million-plus homes – 9,071 as at the start of the second quarter, followed by Downtown (8,376) and Dubai Hills Estate (6,138).
However, while the city welcomed almost 170,000 new residents last year, the total housing stock only rose by a little over 30,000 units, the study revealed.
