Predicted rise in gold price may yet have silver lining



Precious metal investors looking for the next big opportunity should be turning to silver, according to a new book from James Turk, the GoldMoney.com founder and former head of commodities for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and John Rubino.

They predict that silver will return to “something close to its historical ratio to gold” and pass US$500 an ounce “when gold makes its epic run from $1,300 to $10,000-plus”. So we are talking about quite a jaw-dropping leap for gold to send silver into the stratosphere. Could this really happen?

The authors of The Money Bubble explain in great depth how gold prices will rise and rise in a spectacular blow-off as global money printing finally gets out of control. The only recent comparable period is the 1970 to 1980 bull market for precious metals. The silver price is leveraged against gold, and outperforms on the way up.

Silver is a substitute for gold when prices go too high, and those who find gold getting too expensive buy silver instead. The authors cite the record 6,000 tonnes of silver imported by India in 2013, an amount equivalent to 20 per cent of global mine production, as a classic case of substitution for gold when a 10 per cent tax made the yellow metal expensive for subcontinental buyers.

The Money Bubble has an interesting appendix unravelling how gold prices are manipulated by the central banks to suppress a classic indicator of inflation. Silver experts like Ted Butler have also established beyond all reasonable doubt that manipulation is rampant in this market too. The century-old London silver price fix is due to end on August 14. That ought to be good news for silver prices.

Then again the price rise from $6 per ounce in 2006 to $49 in 2011 shows that such manipulation is not a perfect art. The real issue for silver, according to this new book, is the ratio of available silver to gold of 3:1 while the price ratio is currently 65:1.

If there is ever a rush to buy silver there is just not going to be enough available, and that will send the price higher and bring its price ratio to gold tumbling back towards its much lower historic levels of 15:1. Thus the price of silver will rise by a much greater percentage than gold.

In 2013, the resources fund manager Sprott Asset Management reported that its clients were buying equal amounts of gold and silver, or more than 50 times more silver than gold by weight. If the supply is only three times greater how can this continue in a rush to buy precious metals without pushing the price up? It can’t.

All it takes is for gold to get its mojo back and silver is really off to the races. How long will that take? The authors are long on good advice and short on timing predictions. They also rather tend to gloss over the 28 per cent slump in the price of gold in 2013 and keep their charts focused on the previous 12-year boom.

The book concludes that “by the latest in 2015 gold will begin its epic price ascent”, although they admit to being wrong-footed by the “coordinated central bank attack” on the gold price in 2013. However, they turn this episode around and prefer to see it as a last desperate stand by the central banks and unrepeatable.

Where the authors see gold prices going through the roof is when the central banks have to create a new monetary system. Over history this sort of shake-up has happened far more often than you might think, about every 40 years. We are well overdue for a new system. Gold would be needed as a linchpin of international finance with no counterparty risk and universal acceptance as money.

Gold needs to be $10,000-$12,000 an ounce to resume this role as the guardian of global financial stability says this former adviser to Adia and his co-author, and the logical side effect will be $500 silver. Maybe then instead of an investment in gold you would be better advised to buy silver. But don’t forget that the leverage also works in reverse and silver prices fall by a higher percentage than gold when the market goes down.

Peter Cooper is the editor of ArabianMoney.net

Follow us on Twitter @TheNationalPF

Know your camel milk:
Flavour: Similar to goat’s milk, although less pungent. Vaguely sweet with a subtle, salty aftertaste.
Texture: Smooth and creamy, with a slightly thinner consistency than cow’s milk.
Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
Goes well with: chocolate and caramel, saffron, cardamom and cloves. Also works well with honey and dates.

Rashid & Rajab

Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib

Stars: Shadi Alfons,  Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab 

Two stars out of five 

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Five hymns the crowds can join in

Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday

Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir

Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium

‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song

‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar

‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion

‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope

The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’

There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia

The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ

They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening 

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Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

THREE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

Four-day collections of TOH

Day             Indian Rs (Dh)        

Thursday    500.75 million (25.23m)

Friday         280.25m (14.12m)

Saturday     220.75m (11.21m)

Sunday       170.25m (8.58m)

Total            1.19bn (59.15m)

(Figures in millions, approximate)

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

 

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)

Director: Laxman Utekar

Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna

Rating: 1/5

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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