Aircraft orders are at their lowest for ten years. AFP
Aircraft orders are at their lowest for ten years. AFP
Aircraft orders are at their lowest for ten years. AFP
Aircraft orders are at their lowest for ten years. AFP

Orders for new aircraft at 10-year low as Covid-19 saps travel demand


Paul Peachey
  • English
  • Arabic

Orders for new passenger aircraft fell to their lowest level in a decade as the coronavirus pandemic led to a collapse in global air travel demand, according to new analysis.

Just 19 aircraft were ordered globally in April to June 2020, down 97 per cent from the same period in 2018 when airlines ordered 577 jets, according to UK trade body ADS.

Orders for new jets fell after the first three months as the full scale of the coronavirus’ impact on travel became evident.

However, the backlog of aircraft orders stood at nearly 14,000, providing some optimism for the industry in the event of a strong recovery following the lifting of restrictions, ADS said.

While travel restrictions have eased across many countries, the short-term future of air travel seems bleak. Moody’s Investors Service said this month that demand would not recover to pre-coronavirus levels until the end of 2023, and only if effective medicines were available.

A survey by the International Air Transport Association earlier this month showed that fewer people were willing to fly when the Covid-19 pandemic subsides than there were at the height of movement restrictions in April.

Aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing have also axed jobs and cut costs to conserve cash as they forecast a sluggish recovery in travel demand after the pandemic.

“The impact of Covid-19 on international aviation and aerospace is clear to all,” said ADS chief executive Paul Everitt. “The coming months will be challenging for many aerospace businesses as they manage the significant reduction in demand.”

Airline deliveries were also at their lowest point in the 10-year history of the ADS study, with just 94 in the second quarter of 2020.

Last year was also tough for reasons other than Covid-19. Many airlines delayed orders after Boeing grounded its 737 Max aircraft in March 2019 following two deadly crashes that killed 346 people.

Cancellations of plane orders stood at 449 in 2020, a number that would not have a significant effect on the industry, the study said. The majority of the cancellations were due to Boeing’s inability to rectify glitches within the 737 Max rather than Covid-19.

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League final:

Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports

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Available: Now

Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

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Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The most expensive investment mistake you will ever make

When is the best time to start saving in a pension? The answer is simple – at the earliest possible moment. The first pound, euro, dollar or dirham you invest is the most valuable, as it has so much longer to grow in value. If you start in your twenties, it could be invested for 40 years or more, which means you have decades for compound interest to work its magic.

“You get growth upon growth upon growth, followed by more growth. The earlier you start the process, the more it will all roll up,” says Chris Davies, chartered financial planner at The Fry Group in Dubai.

This table shows how much you would have in your pension at age 65, depending on when you start and how much you pay in (it assumes your investments grow 7 per cent a year after charges and you have no other savings).

Age

$250 a month

$500 a month

$1,000 a month

25

$640,829

$1,281,657

$2,563,315

35

$303,219

$606,439

$1,212,877

45

$131,596

$263,191

$526,382

55

$44,351

$88,702

$177,403

 

The biog

Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children

She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career

She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence

Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken

Tank warfare

Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks. 

“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.

“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”

Batti Gul Meter Chalu

Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5

MATCH INFO

England 241-3 (20 ovs)

Malan 130 no, Morgan 91

New Zealand 165 all out (16.5ovs)

Southee 39, Parkinson 4-47

England win by 76 runs

Series level at 2-2

The Dark Blue Winter Overcoat & Other Stories From the North
Edited and Introduced by Sjón and Ted Hodgkinson
Pushkin Press 

The specs
 
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Transmission: Eight-speed auto
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The specs: McLaren 600LT

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Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm

Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm

Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km

Brief scoreline:

Manchester United 2

Rashford 28', Martial 72'

Watford 1

Doucoure 90'