The EU is facing threats to its common currency union. Bloomberg News
The EU is facing threats to its common currency union. Bloomberg News
The EU is facing threats to its common currency union. Bloomberg News
The EU is facing threats to its common currency union. Bloomberg News

More alarm as new woes befall Europe's currency project


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Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the waters of the euro zone, along comes another crisis to snap at the feet of international investors.

But this time there are so many potential threats to the great project of European currency union, the more appropriate analogy isn't the single rogue shark of the blockbuster Jaws, but rather the legions of small killers in the awful movie Piranha. Any one of them could inflict serious, even fatal injury to the EU and its currency.

All the time, they are nibbling their way closer to the beating heart of the EU: Germany, and the handful of other northern European countries deemed to be worthy economic models.

Global financial markets had been giving the architects of European policy some credit for their handling of the crisis, which has been rumbling on for two years, virtually on the brink but never quite going over.

Investors were impressed by the resources the European Central Bank was prepared to throw at the crisis to erect a "firewall" around the euro zone's weaker economies: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.

But with the bundle of bad news that came out of Europe over the weekend, all bets are off, and once again the international money men are probing the financial structure of the European Union, looking for weak points. There are many now.

The speed with which France is moving out of the EU central core and on to the risk list is astonishing. The country's indebtedness was always high, with big public spending and a way of life (short working weeks, long holidays) that many Greeks would recognise. The loss of its AAA rating a few months back was a recognition of this.

But now the additional element of political risk has been thrown into the economic and financial stew. The results of the first round of the presidential election showed a growing enthusiasm for the farther reaches of the political spectrum, both left and right, that gave global markets a real jolt.

There is no prospect of stability until the next round of voting next month, and no guarantee of it then, whoever wins. But it was the fall of the Netherlands government that really spooked the markets. The Dutch have been among the most enthusiastic supporters of the EU project, and one of the most financially disciplined of the core EU nations. Now it seems there is a secret Athenian lurking in the mind of each Amsterdammer.

The list of countries resisting German-led attempts to impose financial austerity on the widely divergent euro-zone economies is growing. Even in countries that have elected technocratic governments pledged to cut spending and deficits, there appears to be a feeling that Berlin has gone too far.

What is worse, and this was the factor that sent many markets into a tailspin that looks hard to reverse, is that there are few signs the German plan is working, least of all in Germany.

Figures for euro-zone economic activity showed an alarming drop on Monday, even in the EU's most resilient economy.

Once again, the threat of prolonged euro-zone recession looms, and the German engine seems less capable than ever of pulling the others out of the ditch.

Maybe now the Germans will admit that their plan to resolve the euro-zone crisis is fundamentally flawed, and that a new approach is needed, both to fix the acutely immediate problems and to map out a future for the euro zone that would prevent such a crisis in the future. But a German U-turn now, which looks unlikely, given the country's new self-confidence in Europe, would only increase the uncertainty and further roil the markets.

The rest of the world can only stand by and watch as euro politicians dither. The dangers to the global economy are obvious.

For the Gulf, the endless financial crisis of the euro zone is a further threat to economic recovery, and a destabilising factor in the region's financial infrastructure. European banks will look even more sceptically at governments or corporations that are seeking to restructure debts.

This is not a time for global investors to be dipping even a toe in the seething waters of the European maelstrom.

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