Dollar is expected to remain the dominant currency in the near future, according to Fitch Ratings executive. Bloomberg
Dollar is expected to remain the dominant currency in the near future, according to Fitch Ratings executive. Bloomberg
Dollar is expected to remain the dominant currency in the near future, according to Fitch Ratings executive. Bloomberg
Dollar is expected to remain the dominant currency in the near future, according to Fitch Ratings executive. Bloomberg

US GDP data will determine dollar direction


Gaurav Kashyap
  • English
  • Arabic

As I have maintained, improving US data will continue to help future US dollar forecasts and vice versa.

Since my last piece earlier this month, perhaps the biggest economic release was the US non-farm payrolls employment rate. Although average hourly earnings came in slightly weaker than expected, payrolls grew to 224,000 (versus an expected 160,000). The better than expected figures immediately saw fresh dollar buying — and took other assets lower.

FX and commodities have been trading in their current ranges this month. After dropping as low as 1.1259 on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX), the EUR/USD contract for delivery in September has recovered back above 1.13. Following similar pricing action, the British pound contract dropped as low as 1.2485 on DGCX before moving back above 1.2550 levels. Gold for July delivery also dropped to 1389 levels before moving comfortably back above 1400 levels. All these assets have followed an all too similar trend due largely to US dollar volatility.

Looking at the economic calendar ahead, I am watching for the second quarter US GDP figure due out on July 26. Expected to come in at 1.9 per cent (well below the previous 3.1 per cent), this piece of data will be most important for the US Federal Reserve and its rate decision meeting that follows on July 30 and 31.

Markets are largely expecting a cut at this coming meeting, but there is a small chance of holding rates steady. The Fed finds itself in a sticky spot; after talking up the chances of a rate cut, it would be catching markets off guard if it were to hold rates unchanged, and this would also send the markets an incorrect message about the decision-making and communication policy within the Fed.

The second quarter GDP will be a key indicator in determining which way the Fed will go. If the GDP data comes in healthy, this could give the Fed ammunition to stand pat against President Donald Trump’s overtures for a low-interest rate environment for the US. If, however, that figure comes well below 2 per cent this could flame speculation that the Fed will cut rates. This waiting game will see the dollar continue to trade in the current ranges before we see a more concrete direction following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

While many asset classes have been range bound, US equity markets have been on a tear this month. The Dow Jones made history, breaking through 27000 levels, above which we are seeing some consolidation. Similarly, the S&P 500 index is trading at new records, above 3000. Clearly these markets took a lot of confidence in the jobs report — and are pricing in a US rate cut.

Across the pond, it’s going to be another big few weeks for the euro. As diluted as Fed policy may seem, the ultra-dovish policy of the European Central Bank and its president Mario Draghi towards future rates is obvious. It is a question of if and when the ECB will pull the trigger on additional stimulus measures for the euro zone. The ECB will meet on July 25, which could be the earliest it hints at additional easing measures. If the bank holds off for another month, this could see a fresh influx of buying coming into EUR/USD. I expect to see strong buying support coming into EUR/USD at 1.11 levels.

I still feel opportunities exist in DGCX’s British pound contract. Selling pressure should see the contract drop back towards 1.2450 levels as political and Brexit uncertainty is set to pick up in the summer months.

Finally, following an amazing run last month, gold is seemingly spending July stabilising above $1,400 levels. Long positions on DGCX would make sense at $1,380 or lower with upsides still capped at $1,440.

Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at Equiti Global Markets. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to improve Arabic reading in early years

One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient

The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers

Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades

Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic

First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations

Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades

Improve the appearance of textbooks

Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings

Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught

Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar

Race card

5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; 5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m

6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; 6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m

7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (PA) 1,400m

The biog

Favourite colour: Brown

Favourite Movie: Resident Evil

Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices

Favourite food: Pizza

Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon

Monster

Directed by: Anthony Mandler

Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington 

3/5

 

FA Cup fifth round draw

Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal 

DUBAI WORLD CUP RACE CARD

6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m

7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m

7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m

8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m

8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m

9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m

10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m

 

The National selections

6.30pm Well Of Wisdom

7.05pm Summrghand

7.40pm Laser Show

8.15pm Angel Alexander

8.50pm Benbatl

9.25pm Art Du Val

10pm: Beyond Reason

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Gulf Under 19s final

Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B

Biog

Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara

He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada

Father of two sons, grandfather of six

Plays golf once a week

Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family

Walks for an hour every morning

Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India

2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business

 

MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SCE%20Studio%20Cambridge%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%2C%20PlayStation%204%20and%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%203-litre%20V6%20turbo%20(standard%20model%2C%20E-hybrid)%3B%204-litre%20V8%20biturbo%20(S)%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20350hp%20(standard)%3B%20463hp%20(E-hybrid)%3B%20467hp%20(S)%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20500Nm%20(standard)%3B%20650Nm%20(E-hybrid)%3B%20600Nm%20(S)%0D%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh368%2C500%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cherry

Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo

Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo

1/5

'Joker'

Directed by: Todd Phillips

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix

Rating: Five out of five stars

The Prison Letters of Nelson Mandela
Edited by Sahm Venter
Published by Liveright

FIXTURES

All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Friday
Sevilla v Levante (midnight)

Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad (7.15pm)
Eibar v Valencia (9.30pm)
Atletico Madrid v Alaves (11.45pm)

Sunday
Girona v Getafe (3pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7.15pm)
Las Palmas v Espanyol (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Deportivo la Coruna (11.45pm)

Monday
Malaga v Real Betis (midnight)

The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20permanently%20excited%20synchronous%20motors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E516hp%20or%20400Kw%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E858Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E485km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh699%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica

Best Agent: Jorge Mendes

Best Club : Liverpool   

 Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)  

 Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker

 Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo

 Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP

 Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)

Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)

Best Women's Player:  Lucy Bronze

Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi

 Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)

 Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)

 Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs

The%20Killer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Fincher%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Fassbender%2C%20Tilda%20Swinton%2C%20Charles%20Parnell%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FIXTURES

Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan

The top two teams qualify for the World Cup

Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.

Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place playoff

Your Guide to the Home
  • Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
  • Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
  • Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
     
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Analysis

Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.

The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement. 

We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment. 

 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

Results

1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Al Suhooj, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)

2pm Handicap (TB) 68,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer

2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

3pm Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner Alla Mahlak, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly

4pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m

The biog

Favourite Quote: “Real victories are those that protect human life, not those that result from its destruction emerge from its ashes,” by The late king Hussain of Jordan.

Favourite Hobby: Writing and cooking

Favourite Book: The Prophet by Gibran Khalil Gibran