Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. While second quarter GDP growth in the US may have been strong, markets are aware this might be the high water mark of the growth cycle. Photo: Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. While second quarter GDP growth in the US may have been strong, markets are aware this might be the high water mark of the growth cycle. Photo: Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. While second quarter GDP growth in the US may have been strong, markets are aware this might be the high water mark of the growth cycle. Photo: Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. While second quarter GDP growth in the US may have been strong, markets are aware this might be the high water mark of the growth cycle. Photo

Markets on edge amid monetary tightening and trade war uncertainty


Tim Fox
  • English
  • Arabic

The outlook for trade remains the dominant issue in financial markets, but it is not alone with monetary policy tightening and the process of unwinding quantitative easing also contributing to uncertainty on top of the back and forth over Brexit in Europe and the UK. The combined effect of all of these issues is to keep market sentiment on edge

Second quarter GDP growth in the United States may have been strong, rising by 4.1 per cent on an annualised basis, but markets are becoming ominously aware that this might be the high-water mark of the current US growth cycle. Growth was driven by consumption and business investment but the chances are that it will slow in the second half of the year as monetary tightening starts to bite and as the consequences of trade war uncertainty begins to be felt.      

While the risks of a US-EU trade war may have diminished last week, with US President Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, having agreed to suspend the imposition of any new tariffs while the two parties negotiate over their respective trade terms, the chances are that trade tensions will resurface again over time. It is also unlikely that the harmony between Mr Trump and Mr Juncker will affect the bigger dispute between the US and China.

If Mr Trump imposes tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports, China is likely to respond by targeting US multinationals, which would potentially put much more pressure on US stocks that have risen since late-June. Clearly the impact would be even greater if the US were to impose tariffs on all $500bn or so of Chinese goods imports, as Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened.

Overall, markets still appear surprisingly sanguine, with Facebook’s and Twitter’s 20 per cent declines the exceptions against a generally positive backdrop of strong earnings results.

______

Read more from Tim Fox:

Mixed fortunes for sterling as Brexit negotiations rumble on

Saudi Arabia ramps up its widening global relevance

Markets take 'catalogue of risks' in their stride

A stronger dollar and firmer oil prices threaten capital flows to emerging markets

______

However, there are some worrying signs with Federal Reserve surveys citing supply disruptions and increases in raw material costs related to the effects of tariffs on steel and aluminium. Mr Trump has also announced a $12bn support package for US farmers hurt by trade tariffs, highlighting the contradictions that can follow from protectionist policies.

The risk is that trade wars may also spillover into currency wars as seemed to be happening when Mr Trump called out the Chinese yuan for “dropping like a rock” a fortnight ago, implying that the Chinese currency is being manipulated. Markets pulled back a little from this conclusion in the wake of some soothing words from the G20 meeting, but with monetary policies continuing to diverge it also probably won’t be long before currency rhetoric becomes more extreme again.     

The Fed is likely to continue tightening, especially in the wake of the second quarter GDP report, with two more rate hikes expected between now and the end of the year. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi struck a dovish tone, however, following the ECB’s press conference last Thursday, with the bank reiterating its “patience” regarding the first increase in interest rates which is likely to come pretty late next year, and then proceed gradually after that.

This combination of a tightening Fed and a dovish ECB should keep the euro under pressure. Mr Draghi did say that “the exchange rate is not a policy target” but he also indicated the ECB would not be rushed into early hikes by charges of currency manipulation. China also engaged in both fiscal and monetary policy stimulus measures last week, which while designed to underpin the domestic economy also caused the Chinese yuan to weaken further, with USD/CNY hitting a 12-month low on Friday. Should the People’s Bank Of China cause the yuan to devalue further it will not only raise alarm in Washington, but will also put pressure on regional trading partners.

The Bank of England is thought likely to follow the Fed in raising rates for the second time this decade in the coming week, but somewhat surprisingly the Bank of Japan is rumoured to be mulling a move away from its zero per cent yield curve target as well. With Japanese inflation still well below the BOJ’s 2 per cent target, any such adjustment would be a surprise, but it would be reminder that zero rates left for too long can actually complicate the recovery process.  

Tim Fox is group chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD

Race card

1.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

2pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m

2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m

3pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1.950m

3.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m

4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m

4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m

Prop idols

Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.

Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)

An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.

----

Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)

Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.

----

Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)

Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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THE BIO:

Sabri Razouk, 74

Athlete and fitness trainer 

Married, father of six

Favourite exercise: Bench press

Must-eat weekly meal: Steak with beans, carrots, broccoli, crust and corn

Power drink: A glass of yoghurt

Role model: Any good man

WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?

1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight

3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

What are the influencer academy modules?
  1. Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
  2. Cinematography, shots and movement.
  3. All aspects of post-production.
  4. Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
  5. Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
  6. Tourism industry knowledge.
  7. Professional ethics.
Fireball

Moscow claimed it hit the largest military fuel storage facility in Ukraine, triggering a huge fireball at the site.

A plume of black smoke rose from a fuel storage facility in the village of Kalynivka outside Kyiv on Friday after Russia said it had destroyed the military site with Kalibr cruise missiles.

"On the evening of March 24, Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles attacked a fuel base in the village of Kalynivka near Kyiv," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying the village some 40 kilometres south-west of Kyiv was targeted.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FORSPOKEN
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Diablo%20IV
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Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
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Juvenile arthritis

Along with doctors, families and teachers can help pick up cases of arthritis in children.
Most types of childhood arthritis are known as juvenile idiopathic arthritis. JIA causes pain and inflammation in one or more joints for at least six weeks.
Dr Betina Rogalski said "The younger the child the more difficult it into pick up the symptoms. If the child is small, it may just be a bit grumpy or pull its leg a way or not feel like walking,” she said.
According to The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases in US, the most common symptoms of juvenile arthritis are joint swelling, pain, and stiffness that doesn’t go away. Usually it affects the knees, hands, and feet, and it’s worse in the morning or after a nap.
Limping in the morning because of a stiff knee, excessive clumsiness, having a high fever and skin rash are other symptoms. Children may also have swelling in lymph nodes in the neck and other parts of the body.
Arthritis in children can cause eye inflammation and growth problems and can cause bones and joints to grow unevenly.
In the UK, about 15,000 children and young people are affected by arthritis.

RESULTS

Cagliari 5-2 Fiorentina
Udinese 0-0 SPAL
Sampdoria 0-0 Atalanta
Lazio 4-2 Lecce
Parma 2-0 Roma
Juventus 1-0 AC Milan

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

Results

1. New Zealand Daniel Meech – Fine (name of horse), Richard Gardner – Calisto, Bruce Goodin - Backatorps Danny V, Samantha McIntosh – Check In. Team total First round: 200.22; Second round: 201.75 – Penalties 12 (jump-off 40.16 seconds) Prize €64,000

2. Ireland Cameron Hanley – Aiyetoro, David Simpson – Keoki, Paul Kennedy – Cartown Danger Mouse, Shane Breen – Laith. Team total 200.25/202.84 – P 12 (jump-off 51.79 – P17) Prize €40,000

3. Italy Luca Maria Moneta – Connery, Luca Coata – Crandessa, Simone Coata – Dardonge, Natale Chiaudani – Almero. Team total 130.82/198.-4 – P20. Prize €32,000

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
WHAT%20ARE%20THE%20PRODUCTS%20WITHIN%20THE%20THREE%20MAJOR%20CATEGORIES%3F
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20materials%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20specifically%20engineered%20to%20exhibit%20novel%20or%20enhanced%20properties%2C%20that%20confer%20superior%20performance%20relative%20to%20conventional%20materials%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20components%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20semiconductor%20components%2C%20such%20as%20microprocessors%20and%20other%20computer%20chips%2C%20and%20computer%20vision%20components%20such%20as%20lenses%20and%20image%20sensors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20products%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20personal%20electronics%2C%20smart%20home%20devices%20and%20space%20technologies%2C%20along%20with%20industry-enabling%20products%20such%20as%20robots%2C%203D%20printing%20equipment%20and%20exoskeletons%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Strategy%26amp%3B%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
While you're here
BIRD%20BOX%20BARCELONA
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The Specs

Price, base Dh379,000
Engine 2.9-litre, twin-turbo V6
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 503bhp
Torque 443Nm
On sale now

MATCH INFO

Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)

Man of the match Harry Kane

Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
%3Cp%3EEtihad%20Airways%20operates%20seasonal%20flights%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20Nice%20C%C3%B4te%20d'Azur%20Airport.%20Services%20depart%20the%20UAE%20on%20Wednesdays%20and%20Sundays%20with%20outbound%20flights%20stopping%20briefly%20in%20Rome%2C%20return%20flights%20are%20non-stop.%20Fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C315%2C%20flights%20operate%20until%20September%2018%2C%202022.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20Radisson%20Blu%20Hotel%20Nice%20offers%20a%20western%20location%20right%20on%20Promenade%20des%20Anglais%20with%20rooms%20overlooking%20the%20Bay%20of%20Angels.%20Stays%20are%20priced%20from%20%E2%82%AC101%20(%24114)%2C%20including%20taxes.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Fixtures and results:

Wed, Aug 29:

  • Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
  • Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
  • UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs

Thu, Aug 30: UAE v Nepal; Hong Kong v Singapore; Malaysia v Oman

Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal

Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore

Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong

Thu, Sep 6: Final

COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

Quick pearls of wisdom

Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”

Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”