BG's back on track with yet another chart-topping hit


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And so, before I know it, there I am back with all my eggs in one basket. But what eggs! What a basket!

There are, of course, obvious disadvantages to piling everything you have into a single stock but, if you have the nerve - and the right stock - there are also huge advantages.

For one thing, it makes life a lot easier; kiss goodbye to all that frenetic tracking of multiple stock movements. Open your account, crank up iTunes, kick back with a coffee and simply refresh Safari every couple of minutes. It's not an unpleasant way to pass the time and - coffee aside - much better for the old blood pressure.

It can also make more financial sense - provided, again, that you have the right stock. Sensibly spreading your funds over a number of stocks is, in a sense, a self-defeating exercise for the short-term trader. Some shares will go up, but almost inevitably others will come down, neutralising the gains.

You will never, ever, open your account and shout "whoo-hoo!". But "whoo-hoo!" was precisely what I found myself shouting this week.

I was, I must confess, forced into my brilliant stroke by a combination of circumstance and indolence. I ended last week with three holdings but, after a flurry of automated stop-loss and sell-limit actions, found myself with only BG and almost half my worth in cash.

I started to cast around for places to stash the newly liberated £8,139.38 (Dh48,113.13), although, I must admit, without much enthusiasm. It would have come down to hard work or dumb luck - plucking out of the hat rabbits that could easily turn out to be turkeys.

Then I remembered something I had read about charts. The gist of it was that valid investment decisions could be made by focusing solely on the patterns etched on the price chart by the progress of a company's share value over the previous weeks, months and years, regardless of its business or who was in charge.

And BG's chart was revealing. So much so, in fact, that I decided to put everything I had into this one stock - and wished I had bothered to check out the charts earlier.

I had first bought BG shares on October 26, when the price was 1,197.5 pence. I have made subsequent additional purchases, at 1,246.5p, 1,249p and 1,272.5p, and now I have committed my remaining cash at 1,278.5p - the highest price in a six-month period that saw a low in June of 984p.

Dumb, you might think.

But before I bought, I zoomed out the price chart from six months to a year. A straight line drawn from BG's price in November 2009 to now revealed a steady angle of growth, not far shy of 40 degrees. Over the year to date, this has translated to an increase in share price from about 1,075p to 1,278.5p - a tremendous growth of about 20 per cent in one year.

But back in November 2009, who was to know? Well, anyone who took the trouble to glance at the charts, that's who.

Between December last year and the first week of January this year, BG's price soared, close to 1,240p, but then fell away again, just as dramatically. For three months, the chart of pronounced peaks and troughs did a good impression of a mountain range; at any point a punter could have pitched in low and bailed out high with a modest profit within a week or so - or vice versa.

Now, I have taken what might appear to be a big gamble by investing the lot at the high point in BG's year to date. Indeed, looking at the movements of the past 12 months, it would seem prudent to gamble on an imminent, albeit short term, tailing off in price, rather than a continuation of the overall upward trend.

But that's where perspective comes in.

Zoom out to two years, for example, and it is still possible to draw that rising diagonal line, this time from a low of 764.50p at the end of 2008 to today's 1,278.50p. Again, within that time frame, it is tempting to read a regularity in the undulations in the price, which suggests strongly that BG is bound to take a tumble soon - either to rally again in a few weeks, or as the first move in a downward trend that, on past evidence, could last for several months.

The five-year chart, however, tells a different story. For a start, that all-important upward trajectory is still there: a diagonal from a low of 520p back at the end of 2005, sweeping up majestically to 1,278.5p, but it is possible to see the more recent ups and downs in context, and as insignificant.

True, slap in the middle of that five-year line there is an accelerated growth in the share price - from about the third quarter of 2007 to the end of the second quarter of 2008 - followed by an even more dramatic collapse (though never to as low as the starting price), which lasts for about six months. But that, clearly, was the global economic crisis having its say - it was, in other words, nothing to do with this company and its underlying worth, which is assayed by the steady return to form that has followed.

Is it worth looking back even further? Certainly, the 10-year picture is an encouraging one, revealing that, bar the 2008 glitch, BG has been nothing but a money-maker. Indeed, this chart seems to scream that it won't be long before the price climbs back up to its all-time high of almost 1,400p.

And guess what? It's well on its way. Shortly after my investment this week, the price has jumped even further, to 1,316.5p - a gain of more than £700 in a single week, boosting the value of my portfolio to its highest point yet and teasingly close to breaking the £2,000 profit barrier. Whoo-hoo indeed!

What does BG do? Well, since you ask, it's the gas and oil exploration arm of the old British Gas, but frankly, who cares? That's the beauty of studying charts, and charts alone. It doesn't matter what game a company is in - the stark clarity of the line across the weeks, months and years, rather like the contrail of an aircraft high in the sky, tells you where it's been and gives you a pretty good idea of where it's going, regardless of crew or cargo.

How Voiss turns words to speech

The device has a screen reader or software that monitors what happens on the screen

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A VOISS computer costs between $200 and $250 depending on memory card capacity that ranges from 32GB to 128GB

The speech synthesisers VOISS develops are free

Subsequent computer versions will include improvements such as wireless keyboards

Arabic voice in affordable talking computer to be added next year to English, Portuguese, and Spanish synthesiser

Partnerships planned during Expo 2020 Dubai to add more languages

At least 2.2 billion people globally have a vision impairment or blindness

More than 90 per cent live in developing countries

The Long-term aim of VOISS to reach the technology to people in poor countries with workshops that teach them to build their own device

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”