A pricing-in trend prevailed in the oil markets during the last week of May. Iran tensions appear to have added a premium and sustained Brent crude at multi-year highs. Following that, Opec’s expected tapering of supply cuts by the end of the year limited Brent’s rally, disappointing the oil bulls who were expecting sharper rises.
The changing conditions drove a wedge between Brent and WTI, further diverging the spread to its highest levels since March 2015. The $11 difference between WTI and Brent was not allayed by Russia and Saudi Arabia committing to boost supplies to replace Iranian exports. Nor were investors convinced by Opec’s turnaround on supply cuts, especially given the fact that US supplies continue to indicate abundant supplies. Markets reacted to the confusion by returning to demand and supply fundamentals.
At the time of writing, the spread between Brent and WTI reflects a premium priced in for Brent, which seems to have more supply challenges than WTI, and a discount for WTI because of the plentiful supplies stemming from US Shale.
The second half of the year appears to hold two dominant factors for the oil markets. The first is that Opec is mulling an end to its self-imposed cuts. The reactions to this development are mixed. There are reservations over Opec’s upstream capacity to power up strongly given the lower levels of investment in recent years, adding to perceived pressure on future supplies. A
At the same time, drop-outs in supplies from Venezuela and Iran are a pressing factor on current global supplies. These two arguments tend to buoy up Brent crude’s price. Still, at the back of investor’s minds is the thought that prices may lack support if the supply tap is turned back on to full by the end of the year.
Fundamentals rarely lie. Unless global demand and regional demand convincingly match or exceed supplies, Opec’s return to full production at pre-2016 levels would simply reintroduce an over-supplied market, meaning that prices may return to lower levels.
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Read more:
Oil bulls gain ground following US pullout from Iran nuclear deal
While the US dollar shone in May, it is now taking a breather
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The second dominating factor is the developing situation in supplies from the US Shale industry. By the end of May, the US's Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil imports had dropped by 5.5 per cent compared to the same period last year. Parallel to that, during the week ending on 25.5.18, US Shale output increased by 1.4 million barrels per day compared to the same period in 2017, while increasing by 44,000 b/d compared to the week before.
Rising output and reducing imports mean that there may be less demand for global oil from the gigantic US market in the short term. It appears that there are more divergences in the international oil markets than just the WTI-Brent spread. US Shale is sucking up the domestic demand for crude oil and producing enough to export as well. Opec’s return to full production may make Brent crude more competitive but there’s an undeniable risk that both benchmarks may court the weakness of an over-supplied market.
There’s little doubt that it’s a delicate stage for the oil markets. Opec’s re-balancing policy had the desired effect of bringing crude oil benchmarks back up to the target range of $50 to $60 per barrel. The rally in May appears to have boosted the oil bulls’ confidence, but now that there’s a return to supply-and-demand basics , the question is whether it’s too soon to end supply cuts. It’s all eyes on Opec’s June 22 meeting, when the oil markets expect more clear signals of what lies ahead for the bloc of oil producers.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at FXTM
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
THE TWIN BIO
Their favourite city: Dubai
Their favourite food: Khaleeji
Their favourite past-time : walking on the beach
Their favorite quote: ‘we rise by lifting others’ by Robert Ingersoll
How Sputnik V works
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
ILT20%20UAE%20stars
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELEADING%20RUN%20SCORERS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1%20Nicholas%20Pooran%2C%20261%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2%20Muhammad%20Waseem%20(UAE)%2C%20248%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Chris%20Lynn%2C%20244%3Cbr%3E4%20Johnson%20Charles%2C%20232%3Cbr%3E5%20Kusal%20Perera%2C%20230%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBEST%20BOWLING%20AVERAGE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E(minimum%2010%20overs%20bowled)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E1%20Zuhaib%20Zubair%20(UAE)%2C%209%20wickets%20at%2012.44%3Cbr%3E2%20Mohammed%20Rohid%20(UAE)%2C%207%20at%2013.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Fazalhaq%20Farooqi%2C%2017%20at%2013.05%3Cbr%3E4%20Waqar%20Salamkheil%2C%2010%20at%2014.08%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5%20Aayan%20Khan%20(UAE)%2C%204%20at%2015.50%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E6%20Wanindu%20Hasaranga%2C%2012%20at%2016.25%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7%20Mohammed%20Jawadullah%20(UAE)%2C%2010%20at%2017.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5