Stocks in Asian rose on Friday. AFP
Stocks in Asian rose on Friday. AFP
Stocks in Asian rose on Friday. AFP
Stocks in Asian rose on Friday. AFP

Sell-off in high yield bonds market presents selective opportunities


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The impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) had already sent the high yield credit spread north of 550 basis points before the OPEC+”meeting earlier this month.

Traders and investors hoped for a cut in production from the oil-producing nations in the face of falling demand. Instead the taps were turned on, sending oil prices plummeting and setting the scene for a historic week across financial markets: Equities suffered their worst down day since Black Monday in 1987; we saw an extraordinary liquidity crunch in US Treasuries; and the spread of the ICE Bank of America US High Yield Index, where energy companies account for more than 11 per cent of market capitalisation, raced above 700 basis points.

Selling in high yield was broad-based. In fact, the biggest declines were in the larger, more liquid names - partly because of outflows from exchange-traded funds and partly because these were the easiest securities to offload. That is likely to create attractive value opportunities.

When assessing those opportunities, it’s important to recognise that Covid-19 and the oil price will affect completely different sectors. The picture remains uncertain, but we also think that the impact of Covid-19  will likely be short-term and temporary, whereas the impact of lower oil prices could be longer-term and, in many cases, permanent.

Covid-19  is likely to affect businesses dependent on travel, leisure and large gatherings. In the world of high yield, think theme park operators, for example.

Short-term demand destruction for these businesses will likely be acute, but a permanent impact on enterprise value is unlikely for the vast majority. Few have debt maturities coming due and most have adequate liquidity to sustain themselves over two or three quarters of slow takings, or ready access to capital should it prove necessary.

Caution is advisable, as there is still a lot of uncertainty about how big an impact Covid-19  might have on the US consumer and the broader economy. We are keeping a sharp eye on US initial jobless claims, in particular. At this point, however, we see this as an opportunity to seek out robust balance sheets in these sectors while they are trading at material discounts to their par value.

The oil and gas sector looks very different, though.

Here, we anticipate 12 to 18 months of prices that are too low to make most global exploration economical, and a number of US shale producers face near-term debt maturities.  That implies permanent impairment and rising defaults in the sector.

There are likely to be value opportunities, however. The exploration and production (E&P) subsector has been cutting costs and rationalising its capital expenditure since its last crisis in 2015–16. That limits what they can do this time around, but we are already seeing dividend cuts and other welcome actions. Those who survive may emerge in a stronger state.

Second, while they are selling off now, companies focused on gas rather than oil could benefit as US shale production falters and the energy market rebalances.

And finally, midstream distributors have sold off sharply despite owning critically important infrastructure.

The oil price is mainly an issue for investors in US high yield. The European market has very little exposure.  The equivalent sector there is car manufacturing, where the sharp slowdown in demand from China has delivered a short-term shock that exacerbates the sector’s existing troubles. Pent-up demand may provide some relief as the effect of Covid-19 eases.

Overall, the high yield markets have held up pretty well so far. They remain open to new issuers and daily secondary market trading volumes have held up well. Bid-ask spreads widened substantially last week, with some larger issues trading five percentage points wider, but they tightened some way back again as the week progressed.

When high yield spreads have traded at 600 basis points or more, or loans in the low-90 cent to the dollar range, these have tended to be attractive entry points for long-term investors in the past. The amount of issues trading at distressed levels has doubled in the past few weeks. Defaults will rise, but we believe the increase will likely be contained almost exclusively in the energy exploration and production sector. So-called “fallen angels”, downgraded from the investment grade universe, may also create value in energy, consumer products and cyclical sectors such as cars.

Amid the turmoil, it is critical to be selective. But we are already seeing some of the most attractive opportunities to add value to high yield portfolios that we have had in four years.

Brad Tank is fixed income chief investment officer at Neuberger Berman,  a member of The Gulf Bond and Sukuk Association

Company%20profile
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TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY

Centre Court

Starting at 2pm:

Elina Svitolina (UKR) [3] v Jennifer Brady (USA)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) v Belinda Bencic (SUI [4]

Not before 7pm:

Sofia Kenin (USA) [5] v Elena Rybakina (KAZ)

Maria Sakkari (GRE) v Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) [7]

 

Court One

Starting at midday:

Karolina Muchova (CZE) v Katerina Siniakova (CZE)

Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) v Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR)

Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) v Dayana Yastermska (UKR)

Petra Martic (CRO) [8] v Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE)

Sorana Cirstea (ROU) v Anett Kontaveit (EST)

How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019

December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'

JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.

“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”

November 26:  ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’

SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue. 

SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."

October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'

MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.

“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December." 

About Karol Nawrocki

• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.

• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.

• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.

• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.

Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes

The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh1,470,000 (est)
Engine 6.9-litre twin-turbo W12
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 626bhp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,350rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.0L / 100km

Plan to boost public schools

A major shake-up of government-run schools was rolled out across the country in 2017. Known as the Emirati School Model, it placed more emphasis on maths and science while also adding practical skills to the curriculum.

It was accompanied by the promise of a Dh5 billion investment, over six years, to pay for state-of-the-art infrastructure improvements.

Aspects of the school model will be extended to international private schools, the education minister has previously suggested.

Recent developments have also included the introduction of moral education - which public and private schools both must teach - along with reform of the exams system and tougher teacher licensing requirements.

In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
  • Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000 
  • Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000 
  • Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000 
  • Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000 
  • HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000 
  • Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000 
  • Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000 
  • Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000 
  • Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000 
  • Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000 
  • Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000 
  • Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
  • Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
  • Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Fixtures (6pm UAE unless stated)

Saturday Bournemouth v Leicester City, Chelsea v Manchester City (8.30pm), Huddersfield v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm), Manchester United v Crystal Palace, Stoke City v Southampton, West Bromwich Albion v Watford, West Ham United v Swansea City

Sunday Arsenal v Brighton (3pm), Everton v Burnley (5.15pm), Newcastle United v Liverpool (6.30pm)

Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

The Details

Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5 

RESULTS

Dubai Kahayla Classic – Group 1 (PA) $750,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Deryan, Ioritz Mendizabal (jockey), Didier Guillemin (trainer).
Godolphin Mile – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Dubai Gold Cup – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (Turf) 3,200m
Winner: Subjectivist, Joe Fanning, Mark Johnston
Al Quoz Sprint – Group 1 (TB) $1million (T) 1,200m
Winner: Extravagant Kid, Ryan Moore, Brendan Walsh
UAE Derby – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Group 1 (TB) $1.5million (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zenden, Antonio Fresu, Carlos David
Dubai Turf – Group 1 (TB) $4million (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord North, Frankie Dettori, John Gosden
Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1 (TB) $5million (T) 2,410m
Winner: Mishriff, John Egan, John Gosden

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Stage result

1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34

2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe

3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers

4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco

5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo

6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ

7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team

8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma

9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux

10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate