US financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald sees the UAE energy sector having $11 billion in free cash flow and an up to 6 per cent dividend yield by 2030, as it begins its coverage of Adnoc's listed entities.
New York-based Cantor assigned overweight price targets for the six listed Adnoc companies that, on average, are more than 30 per cent above their prevailing share prices, it said in a statement on Wednesday.
Adnoc Gas had the highest upside with a 38 per cent overweight rating. Adnoc Drilling was next at 37 per cent, followed by Adnoc Logistics & Services (33 per cent), ammonia producer Fertiglobe (31 per cent), Adnoc Distribution (25 per cent) and chemicals company Borouge (24 per cent).
Cantor's price targets for the companies are Dh4.70, Dh7, Dh7.30, Dh3.50, Dh5 and Dh3.20, respectively.
An overweight rating in the stock market indicates that shares are expected to perform better in the future. Cantor said the Adnoc units were pegged to "outperform its industry peer group", based on its analysis. Cantor's targets are based on "an assessment of long-term trends and the UAE’s vital role in the global energy value chain", it added.
While the firm acknowledged near-term volatility in the market, it identified "several structural factors that underpin its positive long-term view of the UAE’s energy sector and overweight ratings".
Up to 2030, Cantor expects resilient domestic energy demand, improving dividend frameworks, continued energy price upside and the accelerated adoption of digital and artificial intelligence-enabled technologies to underpin its positive long-term view of the UAE's energy sector.
"Given those factors, dynamics could see the UAE energy sector generate approximately $11 billion in free cash flow by the end of the decade, supporting sustainable shareholder returns, including dividend yield of around 5 per cent to 6 per cent to 2030," it said.
The Adnoc units have an "integral role in the UAE’s energy sector ... [with] one of the lowest-cost and most efficient energy ecosystems globally”, Cantor said.
Adnoc Group is a key driver of the UAE economy and continues to expand its operations in line with the country's industrial and energy goals. Last month, its 2025 financial results reflected record-breaking numbers across its listed portfolio – the group's six companies generated revenue of $51.8 billion, state news agency Wam reported.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation – a key indicator of profitability – hit $16.7 billion, while net profit for the full year was at $9.7 billion. The group also declared and proposed dividends totalling $7.2 billion, subject to shareholder approval.
The performance reflects resilient demand across energy, logistics and downstream sectors, alongside disciplined capital management, Adnoc Group said.
In January, Adnoc became the first UAE company to enter the global top 100 most valuable global brands, Brand Finance said. The state-owned energy company was also ranked as the UAE's most valuable brand for the eighth consecutive year, as its value rose by 11 per cent annually to $21.13 billion in 2026 – representing a growth of more than 350 per cent since 2017 – the London-based consultancy said.
