Coinbase CEO sees $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 despite slump

Brian Armstrong doubles down on the UAE as a derivatives hub for Coinbase

Don't get distracted, don't be phased and don't be put off by a 30 per cent drawdown in Bitcoin from the peak.

My sense was Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong wasn't going to get drawn into the short-term machinations and hunger to make a call on the next 20 per cent to 30 per cent move.

His message was simple: stay the course, look to the long term – Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in the past 10 years.

He's not phased by the recent disruption relative to other major drawdowns in the past. This is but a skirmish.

Mr Armstrong remained convinced that a 10-fold upside was achievable. He cited several drivers – the momentum in the regulatory landscape and clarity in the G20, the flow of money into Bitcoin ETFs at a record level, and the warm embrace of many on Wall Street from BlackRock's Larry Fink to Marc Rowan at Apollo, building towards that paradigm shift that could take place to deliver the next one billion users.

Derivatives hub in the UAE

We talked about the innovation in regulation in the UAE. This is where the evolution of his global derivatives trading hub will be.

It's about the innovative approach by the ADGM leaning into regulatory clarity, delivering the infrastructure that he needs to build on the business that he has in the UAE.

One phrase that resonated was: Yes, we want to eradicate fraud risk, but we don't want to eliminate market risk. And therein lies the essence of what Coinbase is, driving participation, adoption and the shift in how we might all view financial services in the future.

Mr Armstrong is excited to invest in the UAE and sees the upside of growth in the derivative trading market. That's the next potential.

The last time I caught up with Mr Armstrong was a couple of years ago, and a lot has changed since then on the flow of capital, both in terms of his perception of the UAE and his global outlook.

The ambition is a "super app". That's about trust and it's about democratisation of finance. When I put it to him, everything that I've read about the super app suggests to me that he wants a banking licence.

He was very clear that is not the direction of travel for him, but he certainly is happy to be embraced by Wall Street, whether it is Fink, Rowan or other major players in finance, from Stripe to PayPal, and that involves tokenisation. The fact that Wall Street has wrapped its arms around it is a strong signal for Mr Armstrong.

Relaxed, composed, taking questions from the floor when he went on stage after the interview, this is a CEO who Wall Street leaders are right to, as I said to him, "wrap their arms around" versus pushing back against him.