Asian stocks tumble on Russia-Ukraine tension

The share market sell-off helped to push safe-haven gold to an eight-month high

A stock market board in Tokyo. The Nikkei lost more than 0.91 per cent on Tuesday as investors contemplated the implications of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. EPA

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Asian share markets dropped and safe-haven assets such as gold rose on Tuesday as investors contemplated the implications of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.5 per cent after stock markets in the US and Europe lost ground on Monday.

Japan's Nikkei fell 0.91 per cent, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.51 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slid 1.1 per cent, although China's CSI 300 Index bucked the sell-off trend across the region and was up 0.7 per cent.

Geopolitical risk will be the clear driver of sentiment for markets this week

Marcella Chow,
global markets strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management

“Geopolitical risk will be the clear driver of sentiment for markets this week,” said Marcella Chow, global markets strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

“The broader risk appetite among investors is going to be under pressure and, as a result, we expect to see a flight to safety in gold, US dollars and longer-term Treasuries.”

The negative tone in Asia was set to be replicated in equity markets across the world on Tuesday.

In early European trade, pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were off 0.32 per cent at 4,039, German Dax futures eased 0.31 per cent to 15,033 and FTSE futures slipped 0.31 per cent at 7,448.50.

US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.07 per cent at 4,391.

The share market sell-off, driven by risk aversion, helped to push gold to an eight-month high as investors sought shelter in the traditional safe-haven asset. Spot gold was up 0.4 per cent at $1,877.72 an ounce.

“In the near term, there will be support for gold because of the uncertainty of a potential military conflict,” said Jack Siu, Credit Suisse's chief investment officer for Greater China.

“It can be a hedge but the overall fundamentals of central banks hiking rates and a firming dollar in the next few weeks and months are negative factors for gold.”

Oil shot to the highest level in seven years in US trading on Monday on Russia-Ukraine tension but weakened slightly during the Asian session.

The US issued a warning on Monday that Russia could soon invade Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US embassy would be relocated from Kyiv to Lviv, citing the “dramatic acceleration in the build-up of Russian forces".

“There are concerns about the possibility of the biggest military action in Europe since the Second World War,” said James Rosenberg, a financial adviser at EL&C Baillieu.

“So far, the market is just keeping a watchful eye and it does not appear to have had much impact. This could change dramatically if the Russians do attack Ukraine.”

The Group of Seven (G7) large economies warned of “economic and financial sanctions, which will have massive and immediate consequences on the Russian economy".

Global index provider MSCI said it was monitoring developments in Ukraine and access to the Russian equity market.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was at 1.9753 per cent compared with its US close of 1.996 per cent on Monday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 1.5589 per cent compared with a US close of 1.589 per cent.

Despite the Russia-Ukraine tension, futures markets are still pointing towards a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its March meeting.

“Global financial markets are caught in a pincer movement between geopolitics [Ukraine] and high inflation,” ANZ economists wrote in a note.

US crude dipped 0.6 per cent to $94.92 a barrel during the Asian session after notching a seven-year high. Brent crude was down 0.5 per cent at $96.02 per barrel.