A few weeks ago I wrote that the economic arguments in the British referendum debate had been well and truly won by the Remain side – and, on Bill Clinton’s principle that “it’s the economy, stupid!”, that was that. Game over.
It was far from over. The economics were soon submerged in emotional and moral arguments, which swept it aside: immigration, particularly by the Turks; loss of sovereignty; and the fear that Britain was going to get drawn down the road to closer integration inside the European Union. The polls, which started off reassuring David Cameron that he would win a handsome victory, swung the other way, causing panic in the Remain camp and share prices and the pound to fall sharply.
With days to go, the polls are running neck-and-neck. The markets, watching the bad-tempered debate in growing bewilderment, decided over the weekend that enough was enough and that sense and the Remainers will prevail. As Asian markets opened yesterday, the pound powered ahead, recording its biggest one-day rise since the banking crisis in 2008 when the whole British financial system was on the verge of collapse.
But if Thursday’s vote goes Mr Cameron’s way it will not be because of the economic arguments. Forecasts have been coming so thick and fast with warnings of hellfire and brimstone attached to them that the British public has switched off. The people do not believe any of them, and with good reason: how many economists, after all, forecast the crash of 2008-09? Why should they be right now?
No, that has little to do with the rising optimism in the Remain camp. The swing back, which the market antennae picked up long before the pollsters, has come from the brutal murder of an engaging young Labour MP and passionate Remainer, Jo Cox. European markets soon picked up the scent with stock prices following the upwards trajectory of sterling.
Of course the polls and the markets could be wrong, but, in a curious way, markets seldom are. The Cox tragedy has caused voters to pause and think again about the fateful path they were blindly heading down without seriously considering the economic consequences.
No one much likes the EU (particularly, as a recent poll showed, the French and Germans) but, as the Economist remarked last week, even if EU membership has unsatisfactory aspects "it beats all plausible alternatives".
Win or lose, it has been a dirty, soul-destroying and bruising debate that has frequently dropped into the puerile. Reputations have been damaged, including that of Mr Cameron but more so that of his chancellor, George Osborne, who has seen his chances of succeeding him as prime minister recede dramatically. Boris Johnson, the other contender and chief Brexiteer, has also emerged badly, seen as an unprincipled opportunist and an oaf (which he is not – in fact there is a very keen brain underneath that matt of thatch).
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, supposedly campaigning on the Remain side, has hardly said anything and Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, capped his absurd campaign with a poster depicting a long queue of migrants at the borders of the EU with the caption “Breaking Point”. That caused even a horror-struck Boris to disown him and every political leader to condemn him as racist.
If the vote is a narrow one, either way a second referendum is emerging as a real possibility. In the end that may be the most elegant solution. But it is high risk. Better the devil you know: vote Remain.
Ivan Fallon is a former business editor of The Sunday Times.
business@thenational.ae
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MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
MATCH INFO
Manchester United v Everton
Where: Old Trafford, Manchester
When: Sunday, kick-off 7pm (UAE)
How to watch: Live on BeIN Sports 11HD
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Premier League results
Saturday
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2
Leicester City 3 Fulham 1
Newcastle United 3 Everton 2
Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Manchester City 3 Watford 1
Sunday
Liverpool 4 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1
Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
New Zealand 176-8 (20 ovs)
England 155 (19.5 ovs)
New Zealand win by 21 runs
